Backtests / STRK
OMNISCIUS · V4.2 (THEROS)

STRK Starknet (STRK) Backtest

Walk-forward validated backtest results for Starknet. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.

Model 3.6-test_Vcp_ideal_binance-alpha • 2 Walk-Forward Cycles • Nov 2024 – Apr 2026 • $0.039600 (+0.00%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Side-by-side: v4.2 (Theros) / v4.0 (Itzamná)

Same coin, full walk-forward window — different model versions. The newest model (v4.2 (Theros)) is currently in production. Older versions are kept for historical comparison.

CURRENT · v4.2 (Theros)
Sharpe
12.30
Win Rate
90.6%
Max DD
-8.6%
Trades
94
Open v4.2 (Theros) backtest →
PREVIOUS · v4.0 (Itzamná)
Sharpe
15.02
▲ +2.72
Win Rate
87.1%
▼ -3.50
Max DD
-8.8%
▼ -0.18
Trades
159
Open v4.0 (Itzamná) backtest →

Δ-arrows compare against current (v4.2 (Theros)). Higher Sharpe / WR / Trades = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

Starknet (STRK) is a leading Ethereum ZK-rollup using STARK cryptographic proofs and the Cairo programming language. Token launched via airdrop in February 2024, providing roughly one-and-a-half cycles of trading data. Price responds to ZK-narrative phases, L2-fee-market dynamics, and protocol-upgrade milestones.

KPIs Equity Curve Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log View STRK Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.

Sharpe Ratio
15.02
Sortino Ratio
23.96
Profit Factor
30.42
Calmar Ratio
1,647,998.36
Win Rate
87.1%
Max Drawdown
-8.8%
Avg Drawdown
-8.21%
Alpha vs B&H
+675,350,527.4pp
Total Trades
160
Exposure
49.9%
Beats B&H
2/2
Sharpe Trend
-2.30
STRK

STRK Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
+36.7%
10t
+216.3%
25t
 +332.5%
2025 +185.7%
20t
 		+376.8%
21t
 		+152.1%
22t
 		+133.1%
21t
 		+253.2%
21t
 		+105.0%
13t
 		+155.4%
23t
+157.0%
15t
+96.6%
21t
+219.3%
28t
+544.9%
21t
+122.8%
16t
 +34,305,975.4%
2026
+133.0%
16t
+32.8%
5t
+50.8%
10t
+70.9%
11t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +697.8%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +6.75M× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 87.1% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 160 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +8.82% on 36 trades, WR 94%.

Regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 90 78.8% +4.76% 29.44 12.6
BULL 36 96.7% +9.42% 94.45 28.5
SIDEWAYS 163 87.2% +4.89% 20.78 20.7
BEAR 30 98.2% +7.55% 190.48 15.6

Per-Cycle Resultsv4.2 Theros

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 Nov '24 – Aug '25 16.17 9,221x -8.8% 87.3% 181 Yes
2 Aug '25 – Apr '26 13.87 731.3x -7.6% 87.0% 138 Yes

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Dec 2025 – Apr 2026).

Compound Return
+898.9%
Win Rate
90.0%
45W / 5L
Max Drawdown
-5.2%
€10,000 Invested
€99,885
10.0x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
22 Apr 2026 08:00 22 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.04010 $0.04270 +6.05% SIDEWAYS 10 signal
22 Apr 2026 08:00 23 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.04950 $0.04240 +16.27% SIDEWAYS 11 signal
20 Apr 2026 11:00 21 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.03480 $0.03630 +3.67% SIDEWAYS 33 trail
17 Apr 2026 11:00 17 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.03650 $0.03750 +2.32% SIDEWAYS 3 exit_fp
17 Apr 2026 11:00 19 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.03590 $0.03400 +5.16% SIDEWAYS 36 signal
16 Apr 2026 17:00 16 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.03590 $0.03650 +1.26% SIDEWAYS 6 signal
15 Apr 2026 01:00 16 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.03230 $0.03550 +9.46% SIDEWAYS 28 take_profit
09 Apr 2026 04:00 10 Apr 2026 03:00 $0.03270 $0.03400 +3.54% BEAR 24 trail
07 Apr 2026 17:00 07 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.03260 $0.03410 +4.17% BEAR 6 exit_fp
05 Apr 2026 17:00 06 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.03270 $0.03380 +2.94% BEAR 17 signal
31 Mar 2026 10:00 01 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.03400 $0.03450 +0.97% BEAR 16 trail
30 Mar 2026 00:00 30 Mar 2026 09:00 $0.03370 $0.03460 +2.15% BEAR 10 trail
23 Mar 2026 17:00 25 Mar 2026 04:00 $0.03620 $0.03740 +2.89% BEAR 36 signal
21 Mar 2026 03:00 21 Mar 2026 11:00 $0.03580 $0.03740 +3.93% BEAR 9 regime_exit
21 Mar 2026 03:00 22 Mar 2026 00:00 $0.03740 $0.03740 -0.41% BEAR 1 signal
16 Mar 2026 04:00 16 Mar 2026 20:00 $0.04030 $0.04150 +2.56% BEAR 17 exit_fp
16 Mar 2026 04:00 20 Mar 2026 14:00 $0.04010 $0.03560 +12.18% BEAR 62 signal
08 Mar 2026 01:00 09 Mar 2026 09:00 $0.03800 $0.03900 +1.99% BEAR 33 trail
03 Mar 2026 11:00 04 Mar 2026 19:00 $0.03970 $0.04180 +4.86% BEAR 33 exit_fp
01 Mar 2026 20:00 02 Mar 2026 15:00 $0.03940 $0.04180 +5.66% BEAR 20 exit_fp
28 Feb 2026 13:00 01 Mar 2026 01:00 $0.03960 $0.04240 +6.63% BEAR 13 exit_fp
24 Feb 2026 07:00 25 Feb 2026 05:00 $0.03980 $0.04180 +4.41% BEAR 23 trail
19 Feb 2026 18:00 20 Feb 2026 08:00 $0.04420 $0.04640 +4.55% BEAR 15 exit_fp
11 Feb 2026 10:00 12 Feb 2026 15:00 $0.04460 $0.04730 +5.50% BEAR 30 trail
06 Feb 2026 02:00 06 Feb 2026 16:00 $0.04650 $0.05210 +11.58% BEAR 15 exit_fp
02 Feb 2026 09:00 02 Feb 2026 18:00 $0.05520 $0.05730 +3.38% BEAR 10 exit_fp
26 Jan 2026 08:00 27 Jan 2026 08:00 $0.06770 $0.06880 +1.21% SIDEWAYS 25 signal
26 Jan 2026 08:00 31 Jan 2026 18:00 $0.06940 $0.05360 +28.95% SIDEWAYS 94 signal
21 Jan 2026 11:00 21 Jan 2026 19:00 $0.07820 $0.08150 +3.79% SIDEWAYS 9 exit_fp
21 Jan 2026 11:00 25 Jan 2026 19:00 $0.07870 $0.06620 +18.40% SIDEWAYS 79 signal
17 Jan 2026 04:00 17 Jan 2026 16:00 $0.08520 $0.08580 +0.29% SIDEWAYS 13 signal
17 Jan 2026 04:00 18 Jan 2026 15:00 $0.08390 $0.08600 -2.95% SIDEWAYS 11 stop
17 Jan 2026 04:00 20 Jan 2026 22:00 $0.08010 $0.07730 +3.20% SIDEWAYS 43 signal
13 Jan 2026 05:00 14 Jan 2026 00:00 $0.08200 $0.09120 +10.76% SIDEWAYS 20 exit_fp
13 Jan 2026 05:00 16 Jan 2026 15:00 $0.09000 $0.08250 +8.64% SIDEWAYS 51 signal
11 Jan 2026 16:00 12 Jan 2026 16:00 $0.08230 $0.08200 -0.77% SIDEWAYS 25 signal
04 Jan 2026 13:00 04 Jan 2026 17:00 $0.08830 $0.09140 +3.09% SIDEWAYS 5 signal
04 Jan 2026 13:00 06 Jan 2026 08:00 $0.08940 $0.09380 -5.19% SIDEWAYS 27 stop
04 Jan 2026 13:00 09 Jan 2026 12:00 $0.09240 $0.08210 +12.08% SIDEWAYS 64 signal
04 Jan 2026 13:00 10 Jan 2026 22:00 $0.08400 $0.08140 +2.77% SIDEWAYS 22 signal
31 Dec 2025 18:00 02 Jan 2026 23:00 $0.07790 $0.08630 +10.33% SIDEWAYS 54 take_profit
31 Dec 2025 18:00 04 Jan 2026 00:00 $0.08490 $0.08670 -2.48% SIDEWAYS 13 signal
26 Dec 2025 13:00 27 Dec 2025 15:00 $0.07980 $0.08470 +5.71% SIDEWAYS 27 exit_fp
26 Dec 2025 13:00 31 Dec 2025 05:00 $0.08400 $0.07810 +7.11% SIDEWAYS 74 signal
23 Dec 2025 21:00 25 Dec 2025 01:00 $0.08000 $0.08120 +1.08% SIDEWAYS 29 signal
23 Dec 2025 21:00 26 Dec 2025 00:00 $0.08060 $0.07830 +2.52% SIDEWAYS 11 signal
19 Dec 2025 01:00 19 Dec 2025 19:00 $0.07970 $0.08520 +6.46% BEAR 19 exit_fp
09 Dec 2025 14:00 09 Dec 2025 16:00 $0.11050 $0.11860 +6.89% SIDEWAYS 3 exit_fp
09 Dec 2025 14:00 11 Dec 2025 02:00 $0.11190 $0.10510 +6.03% SIDEWAYS 22 signal
09 Dec 2025 14:00 13 Dec 2025 16:00 $0.10980 $0.10590 +3.14% SIDEWAYS 44 trail

Start Trading Starknet Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time STRK signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

Get Started → STRK Signals → View Plans →
87.1% Win Rate Sharpe 15.02 160 Trades -8.8% Max Drawdown