ADAADACardano$0.163000+0.74%
24h High$0.17
24h Low$0.16
Volume$11.9M
Updated22:53 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / ADA / ADA — Q4 2025 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

ADA Cardano Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for ADA - Cardano. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the Q4-2025 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 49 trades would have compounded to a final value of $29,159 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros • 49 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Cardano (ADA) is a proof-of-stake blockchain founded by Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson. Distinguished by its academic approach and peer-reviewed research, Cardano emphasizes formal verification and methodical development. While its slower development pace has drawn criticism, it has built a loyal community and growing DeFi ecosystem. ADA tends to move with the broader altcoin market but with its own distinct momentum patterns during major updates.

Performance Price & Trades Trade Stats Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ ADA Signals →

ADA — Q4 2025 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Cardano (ADA) — compounded across 3 months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Quarterly Return
+191.6%
$10,000 →
$29,159
Win Rate
75.5%
37W / 12L
Trades
49
Sharpe
12.03
Alpha vs B&H
+250.82pp
Risk / Reward
41.94×
B&H Return
-59.23%
Max Drawdown
-4.57%
Avg Drawdown
-3.61%
Sharpe Trend
+11.39
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest
View →

Day-by-day — ADA — Q4 2025 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for ADA over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

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▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 49-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+3.38%
Avg Loss
-1.13%
Best Trade
+12.87%
Worst Trade
-6.71%
Avg Bars Held
12.9h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Forward-pred: 23 (47%) Signal flip: 18 (37%) Short signal: 5 (10%) Trailing stop: 2 (4%) Take-profit: 1 (2%)
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +191.6% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Healthy win rate: 75.5%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: SIDEWAYS — avg +3.02% on 30 trades, WR 87%.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: BULL — avg -1.34% on 4 trades, WR 50%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 30 86.7% +3.02% +140.39% 13h
BEAR 13 53.8% +1.58% +22.16% 13h
BUBBLE 2 100.0% +2.94% +5.95% 13h
BULL 4 50.0% -1.34% -5.48% 15h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 49 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
05 Oct 2025 02:00 05 Oct 2025 07:00 $0.86 $0.88 +1.72% BUBBLE 6h
05 Oct 2025 20:00 06 Oct 2025 15:00 $0.83 $0.87 +4.16% BUBBLE 20h
08 Oct 2025 01:00 09 Oct 2025 02:00 $0.83 $0.81 -1.95% BUBBLE 1.1d
09 Oct 2025 15:00 10 Oct 2025 02:00 $0.80 $0.81 +0.71% BULL 12h
10 Oct 2025 20:00 11 Oct 2025 08:00 $0.72 $0.67 -6.71% BULL 13h
11 Oct 2025 21:00 12 Oct 2025 06:00 $0.63 $0.65 +2.61% BULL 10h
12 Oct 2025 19:00 13 Oct 2025 01:00 $0.70 $0.71 +0.79% BULL 7h
13 Oct 2025 15:00 13 Oct 2025 17:00 $0.72 $0.73 +0.93% SIDEWAYS 3h
14 Oct 2025 08:00 15 Oct 2025 01:00 $0.68 $0.70 +1.81% SIDEWAYS 18h
17 Oct 2025 08:00 18 Oct 2025 11:00 $0.60 $0.64 +6.45% SIDEWAYS 1.2d
19 Oct 2025 12:00 19 Oct 2025 20:00 $0.64 $0.66 +2.70% SIDEWAYS 9h
21 Oct 2025 09:00 21 Oct 2025 14:00 $0.64 $0.67 +4.73% SIDEWAYS 6h
22 Oct 2025 22:00 23 Oct 2025 17:00 $0.62 $0.65 +5.53% SIDEWAYS 20h
24 Oct 2025 15:00 25 Oct 2025 01:00 $0.65 $0.66 +1.51% SIDEWAYS 11h
26 Oct 2025 03:00 26 Oct 2025 18:00 $0.65 $0.68 +3.83% SIDEWAYS 16h
30 Oct 2025 20:00 31 Oct 2025 11:00 $0.60 $0.62 +3.08% SIDEWAYS 16h
02 Nov 2025 19:00 02 Nov 2025 21:00 $0.60 $0.60 +0.39% SIDEWAYS 3h
03 Nov 2025 16:00 03 Nov 2025 17:00 $0.56 $0.57 +0.75% SIDEWAYS 2h
04 Nov 2025 20:00 05 Nov 2025 15:00 $0.51 $0.55 +7.10% SIDEWAYS 20h
06 Nov 2025 13:00 07 Nov 2025 21:00 $0.54 $0.59 +8.58% SIDEWAYS 1.4d
08 Nov 2025 17:00 08 Nov 2025 19:00 $0.56 $0.56 -0.41% SIDEWAYS 3h
09 Nov 2025 08:00 10 Nov 2025 10:00 $0.56 $0.59 +5.93% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
12 Nov 2025 01:00 12 Nov 2025 04:00 $0.56 $0.56 -0.12% SIDEWAYS 4h
12 Nov 2025 19:00 13 Nov 2025 08:00 $0.54 $0.57 +4.04% SIDEWAYS 14h
15 Nov 2025 01:00 15 Nov 2025 15:00 $0.51 $0.51 -0.98% BEAR 15h
17 Nov 2025 21:00 18 Nov 2025 16:00 $0.46 $0.48 +3.58% BEAR 20h
19 Nov 2025 17:00 20 Nov 2025 12:00 $0.45 $0.47 +4.72% BEAR 20h
21 Nov 2025 08:00 21 Nov 2025 14:00 $0.41 $0.41 -0.60% BEAR 7h
22 Nov 2025 12:00 23 Nov 2025 17:00 $0.40 $0.41 +2.80% BEAR 1.3d
24 Nov 2025 13:00 24 Nov 2025 19:00 $0.41 $0.43 +4.35% BEAR 7h
25 Nov 2025 14:00 26 Nov 2025 09:00 $0.41 $0.42 +2.31% BEAR 20h
26 Nov 2025 22:00 27 Nov 2025 00:00 $0.44 $0.44 -0.32% BEAR 3h
29 Nov 2025 07:00 29 Nov 2025 13:00 $0.42 $0.42 +0.02% SIDEWAYS 7h
30 Nov 2025 02:00 30 Nov 2025 04:00 $0.41 $0.42 +0.41% SIDEWAYS 3h
01 Dec 2025 13:00 02 Dec 2025 15:00 $0.38 $0.43 +12.87% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
03 Dec 2025 04:00 03 Dec 2025 09:00 $0.44 $0.44 -0.09% SIDEWAYS 6h
07 Dec 2025 03:00 07 Dec 2025 16:00 $0.42 $0.43 +1.04% SIDEWAYS 14h
08 Dec 2025 05:00 09 Dec 2025 16:00 $0.43 $0.48 +11.19% SIDEWAYS 1.5d
11 Dec 2025 15:00 11 Dec 2025 20:00 $0.42 $0.42 +0.76% SIDEWAYS 6h
15 Dec 2025 21:00 15 Dec 2025 23:00 $0.38 $0.39 +0.71% SIDEWAYS 3h
16 Dec 2025 14:00 16 Dec 2025 16:00 $0.39 $0.39 -0.18% SIDEWAYS 3h
17 Dec 2025 07:00 17 Dec 2025 12:00 $0.38 $0.38 -0.54% BEAR 6h
18 Dec 2025 21:00 18 Dec 2025 23:00 $0.35 $0.35 -1.31% BEAR 3h
19 Dec 2025 12:00 19 Dec 2025 19:00 $0.37 $0.38 +2.63% BEAR 8h
21 Dec 2025 14:00 22 Dec 2025 14:00 $0.36 $0.38 +4.14% BEAR 1d
23 Dec 2025 15:00 23 Dec 2025 19:00 $0.36 $0.36 -0.30% BEAR 5h
24 Dec 2025 15:00 25 Dec 2025 01:00 $0.36 $0.36 +0.04% SIDEWAYS 11h
25 Dec 2025 23:00 26 Dec 2025 13:00 $0.34 $0.36 +3.62% SIDEWAYS 15h
28 Dec 2025 19:00 29 Dec 2025 01:00 $0.36 $0.37 +2.64% SIDEWAYS 7h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live ADA signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Cardano Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time ADA signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

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75.5% Win Rate +191.6% Return -4.6% Max Drawdown Net of Fees