Backtests / PENDLE
OMNISCIUS · V4.2 (THEROS)

PENDLE PENDLE (PENDLE) Backtest

Walk-forward validated backtest results for PENDLE. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.

1 Walk-Forward Cycle Apr 2024 – May 2026 $1.6000 (+1.78%)
Walk-forward validated Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Pendle (PENDLE) lets users separate principal and yield from staking and DeFi positions and trade them independently. It powers fixed-yield markets, leveraged yield strategies, and points-driven farming. Protocol activity correlates with Ethereum DeFi cycles and LST/LRT trends, producing momentum bursts the model can ride.

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.

Sharpe Ratio
12.26
Sortino Ratio
14.16
Profit Factor
16.82
Calmar Ratio
11,295.68
Win Rate
87.7%
Max Drawdown
-15.8%
Avg Drawdown
-15.75%
Alpha vs B&H
+334,561,135.5pp
Total Trades
390
Exposure
35.1%
Beats B&H
1/1
Cycles
1
PENDLE

PENDLE Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
+173.8%
17t
+108.6%
14t
+119.2%
20t
+161.9%
20t
+132.3%
21t
+106.6%
18t
+194.5%
19t
+115.8%
23t
+99,883.3%
2025
+159.5%
21t
+211.2%
21t
+114.5%
19t
+125.2%
21t
+110.4%
17t
+77.5%
12t
+161.5%
22t
+152.8%
15t
+52.9%
17t
+53.6%
16t
+15.9%
11t
+42.8%
15t
+374,345.9%
2026
+73.4%
16t
+0.8%
3t
+65.8%
11t
+0.9%
1t
+192.3%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • Exceptional return: +3.35M× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • High win rate: 87.7% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • Large drawdown: -15.8% — expect volatility on capital.
  • Robust sample: 390 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • Strongest regime: BULL — avg +7.04% on 50 trades, WR 88%.

Regime Breakdown

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 120 84.2% +4.14% 24.92 13.9
BULL 50 88.0% +7.04% 17.45 26.8
SIDEWAYS 217 89.4% +3.95% 14.01 14.9
BEAR 3 100.0% +0.96% 0.00 6.0

Trade Log

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Nov 2025 – May 2026).

Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
01 May 2026 13:00 01 May 2026 16:00 $1.538 $1.556 +0.92% SIDEWAYS 4 signal
30 Apr 2026 04:00 30 Apr 2026 23:00 $1.249 $1.427 +13.97% SIDEWAYS 20 exit_fp
28 Apr 2026 12:00 28 Apr 2026 19:00 $1.292 $1.365 +5.32% SIDEWAYS 8 exit_fp
27 Apr 2026 17:00 27 Apr 2026 23:00 $1.296 $1.320 +1.54% SIDEWAYS 7 signal
25 Apr 2026 16:00 26 Apr 2026 21:00 $1.269 $1.340 +5.27% SIDEWAYS 30 short_signal
21 Apr 2026 22:00 22 Apr 2026 05:00 $1.325 $1.380 +3.83% SIDEWAYS 8 exit_fp
21 Apr 2026 06:00 21 Apr 2026 09:00 $1.362 $1.382 +1.15% SIDEWAYS 4 exit_fp
19 Apr 2026 19:00 20 Apr 2026 17:00 $1.279 $1.338 +4.29% SIDEWAYS 23 exit_fp
18 Apr 2026 11:00 18 Apr 2026 15:00 $1.349 $1.406 +3.90% SIDEWAYS 5 signal
17 Apr 2026 21:00 17 Apr 2026 22:00 $1.446 $1.463 +0.86% SIDEWAYS 2 exit_fp
17 Apr 2026 01:00 17 Apr 2026 08:00 $1.275 $1.336 +4.36% SIDEWAYS 8 exit_fp
16 Apr 2026 01:00 16 Apr 2026 12:00 $1.101 $1.193 +7.91% SIDEWAYS 12 exit_fp
21 Mar 2026 14:00 21 Mar 2026 16:00 $1.253 $1.257 -0.09% SIDEWAYS 3 signal
20 Mar 2026 20:00 21 Mar 2026 01:00 $1.253 $1.263 +0.39% SIDEWAYS 6 signal
20 Mar 2026 02:00 20 Mar 2026 03:00 $1.272 $1.281 +0.45% BEAR 2 regime_exit
31 Jan 2026 13:00 31 Jan 2026 17:00 $1.629 $1.545 -5.42% SIDEWAYS 5 stop
27 Jan 2026 08:00 28 Jan 2026 09:00 $1.885 $2.010 +6.43% SIDEWAYS 26 exit_fp
25 Jan 2026 17:00 26 Jan 2026 14:00 $1.904 $1.934 +1.38% SIDEWAYS 22 exit_fp
22 Jan 2026 21:00 22 Jan 2026 23:00 $2.174 $2.172 -0.28% SIDEWAYS 3 signal
22 Jan 2026 00:00 22 Jan 2026 08:00 $2.109 $2.192 +3.74% SIDEWAYS 9 exit_fp
20 Jan 2026 12:00 21 Jan 2026 11:00 $1.934 $2.016 +4.04% SIDEWAYS 24 exit_fp
19 Jan 2026 00:00 19 Jan 2026 19:00 $1.889 $1.971 +4.14% SIDEWAYS 20 exit_fp
17 Jan 2026 14:00 17 Jan 2026 16:00 $2.123 $2.117 -0.47% SIDEWAYS 3 signal
12 Jan 2026 21:00 14 Jan 2026 03:00 $2.103 $2.280 +8.21% SIDEWAYS 31 exit_fp
10 Jan 2026 19:00 12 Jan 2026 01:00 $2.083 $2.181 +4.51% SIDEWAYS 31 signal
09 Jan 2026 09:00 09 Jan 2026 16:00 $2.063 $2.146 +3.76% SIDEWAYS 8 exit_fp
08 Jan 2026 13:00 08 Jan 2026 17:00 $2.092 $2.176 +3.82% SIDEWAYS 5 exit_fp
06 Jan 2026 17:00 06 Jan 2026 22:00 $2.212 $2.318 +4.59% SIDEWAYS 6 signal
03 Jan 2026 08:00 05 Jan 2026 23:00 $2.149 $2.340 +8.68% SIDEWAYS 64 exit_fp
02 Jan 2026 16:00 02 Jan 2026 19:00 $2.151 $2.195 +1.85% SIDEWAYS 4 exit_fp
01 Jan 2026 02:00 02 Jan 2026 00:00 $1.884 $2.038 +7.97% SIDEWAYS 23 take_profit
30 Dec 2025 05:00 31 Dec 2025 13:00 $1.847 $1.938 +4.73% SIDEWAYS 33 exit_fp
28 Dec 2025 21:00 29 Dec 2025 02:00 $1.867 $1.927 +3.02% SIDEWAYS 6 signal
27 Dec 2025 02:00 28 Dec 2025 08:00 $1.860 $1.890 +1.42% SIDEWAYS 31 signal
26 Dec 2025 07:00 26 Dec 2025 13:00 $1.781 $1.843 +3.28% SIDEWAYS 7 exit_fp
24 Dec 2025 07:00 25 Dec 2025 16:00 $1.679 $1.747 +3.85% SIDEWAYS 34 signal
16 Dec 2025 13:00 17 Dec 2025 00:00 $1.982 $2.033 +2.31% BEAR 12 regime_exit
15 Dec 2025 17:00 15 Dec 2025 22:00 $1.975 $2.005 +1.33% SIDEWAYS 6 signal
10 Dec 2025 05:00 10 Dec 2025 19:00 $2.339 $2.440 +4.12% SIDEWAYS 15 exit_fp
09 Dec 2025 08:00 09 Dec 2025 16:00 $2.290 $2.453 +6.91% SIDEWAYS 9 exit_fp
08 Dec 2025 09:00 08 Dec 2025 14:00 $2.462 $2.407 -2.42% SIDEWAYS 6 signal
07 Dec 2025 10:00 07 Dec 2025 18:00 $2.400 $2.452 +1.97% SIDEWAYS 9 exit_fp
03 Dec 2025 22:00 04 Dec 2025 00:00 $2.756 $2.718 -1.57% SIDEWAYS 3 signal
03 Dec 2025 04:00 03 Dec 2025 06:00 $2.674 $2.734 +2.05% SIDEWAYS 3 exit_fp
01 Dec 2025 13:00 02 Dec 2025 15:00 $2.436 $2.699 +10.59% SIDEWAYS 27 exit_fp
30 Nov 2025 22:00 01 Dec 2025 00:00 $2.705 $2.586 -4.64% SIDEWAYS 3 stop
30 Nov 2025 05:00 30 Nov 2025 09:00 $2.604 $2.633 +0.92% SIDEWAYS 5 signal
29 Nov 2025 09:00 29 Nov 2025 11:00 $2.720 $2.748 +0.84% SIDEWAYS 3 signal
14 Nov 2025 21:00 15 Nov 2025 00:00 $2.142 $2.149 +0.11% BEAR 4 regime_exit
12 Nov 2025 00:00 12 Nov 2025 11:00 $2.661 $2.786 +4.53% SIDEWAYS 12 exit_fp

Start Trading PENDLE Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time PENDLE signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

87.7% Win Rate Sharpe 12.26 390 Trades -15.8% Max Drawdown