ADAADACardano$0.161000+0.12%
24h High$0.17
24h Low$0.16
Volume$11.1M
Updated19:18 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / ADA / ADA — H2 2025 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

ADA Cardano Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for ADA - Cardano. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the H2-2025 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 100 trades would have compounded to a final value of $184,299 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros • 100 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Cardano (ADA) is a proof-of-stake blockchain founded by Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson. Distinguished by its academic approach and peer-reviewed research, Cardano emphasizes formal verification and methodical development. While its slower development pace has drawn criticism, it has built a loyal community and growing DeFi ecosystem. ADA tends to move with the broader altcoin market but with its own distinct momentum patterns during major updates.

Performance Price & Trades Trade Stats Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ ADA Signals →

ADA — H2 2025 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Cardano (ADA) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+1,743.0%
$10,000 →
$184,299
Win Rate
82.0%
82W / 18L
Trades
100
Sharpe
12.70
Alpha vs B&H
+1,783.37pp
Risk / Reward
99+×
B&H Return
-40.38%
Max Drawdown
-5.14%
Avg Drawdown
-3.07%
Sharpe Trend
-2.94
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest
View →

Day-by-day — ADA — H2 2025 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for ADA over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 100-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+4.13%
Avg Loss
-1.24%
Best Trade
+26.51%
Worst Trade
-10.03%
Avg Bars Held
16.8h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Forward-pred: 46 (46%) Signal flip: 39 (39%) Short signal: 8 (8%) Trailing stop: 3 (3%) Stop-loss: 2 (2%) Take-profit: 2 (2%)
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +1,743.0% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 82.0% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 100 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +5.32% on 11 trades, WR 82%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 56 82.1% +2.82% +362.04% 16h
BUBBLE 19 89.5% +4.27% +115.37% 18h
BULL 11 81.8% +5.32% +70.33% 1.1d
BEAR 14 71.4% +1.36% +20.53% 12h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 100 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
06 Jul 2025 02:00 07 Jul 2025 03:00 $0.57 $0.59 +2.36% BULL 1.1d
07 Jul 2025 22:00 11 Jul 2025 10:00 $0.58 $0.73 +26.51% BUBBLE 3.5d
11 Jul 2025 23:00 12 Jul 2025 02:00 $0.71 $0.73 +2.36% BUBBLE 4h
12 Jul 2025 15:00 13 Jul 2025 18:00 $0.69 $0.75 +7.14% BUBBLE 1.2d
15 Jul 2025 02:00 16 Jul 2025 20:00 $0.72 $0.78 +6.80% BUBBLE 1.8d
17 Jul 2025 09:00 18 Jul 2025 00:00 $0.81 $0.86 +5.40% BUBBLE 16h
20 Jul 2025 02:00 20 Jul 2025 16:00 $0.83 $0.87 +4.33% BUBBLE 15h
21 Jul 2025 05:00 21 Jul 2025 12:00 $0.88 $0.92 +4.20% BUBBLE 8h
22 Jul 2025 05:00 22 Jul 2025 23:00 $0.87 $0.90 +3.28% BUBBLE 19h
24 Jul 2025 06:00 24 Jul 2025 14:00 $0.77 $0.83 +7.32% BUBBLE 9h
25 Jul 2025 03:00 25 Jul 2025 10:00 $0.80 $0.81 +1.53% BUBBLE 8h
25 Jul 2025 23:00 26 Jul 2025 00:00 $0.82 $0.82 -0.12% BUBBLE 2h
26 Jul 2025 13:00 26 Jul 2025 15:00 $0.83 $0.83 +0.05% BUBBLE 3h
27 Jul 2025 08:00 28 Jul 2025 01:00 $0.82 $0.83 +0.65% BUBBLE 18h
29 Jul 2025 03:00 29 Jul 2025 05:00 $0.79 $0.80 +0.05% BUBBLE 3h
30 Jul 2025 12:00 31 Jul 2025 03:00 $0.76 $0.78 +2.14% BUBBLE 16h
01 Aug 2025 14:00 01 Aug 2025 16:00 $0.74 $0.73 -1.72% BUBBLE 3h
03 Aug 2025 02:00 04 Aug 2025 14:00 $0.71 $0.75 +4.09% SIDEWAYS 1.5d
06 Aug 2025 01:00 09 Aug 2025 09:00 $0.72 $0.82 +12.76% SIDEWAYS 3.4d
10 Aug 2025 12:00 11 Aug 2025 01:00 $0.79 $0.81 +1.70% BULL 14h
12 Aug 2025 01:00 14 Aug 2025 05:00 $0.78 $0.99 +26.47% BULL 2.2d
14 Aug 2025 20:00 15 Aug 2025 22:00 $0.90 $0.96 +6.00% BULL 1.1d
17 Aug 2025 02:00 17 Aug 2025 09:00 $0.92 $0.98 +5.75% BULL 8h
18 Aug 2025 12:00 19 Aug 2025 07:00 $0.91 $0.93 +1.28% BULL 20h
20 Aug 2025 01:00 21 Aug 2025 01:00 $0.85 $0.89 +4.17% BULL 1d
22 Aug 2025 09:00 22 Aug 2025 20:00 $0.85 $0.94 +9.53% SIDEWAYS 12h
24 Aug 2025 11:00 24 Aug 2025 17:00 $0.89 $0.92 +2.92% SIDEWAYS 7h
26 Aug 2025 00:00 27 Aug 2025 04:00 $0.83 $0.87 +4.47% SIDEWAYS 1.2d
28 Aug 2025 01:00 28 Aug 2025 05:00 $0.86 $0.87 +1.02% SIDEWAYS 5h
01 Sep 2025 00:00 01 Sep 2025 07:00 $0.81 $0.84 +3.53% SIDEWAYS 8h
01 Sep 2025 21:00 02 Sep 2025 12:00 $0.79 $0.80 +1.09% SIDEWAYS 16h
03 Sep 2025 01:00 03 Sep 2025 02:00 $0.84 $0.84 -0.14% SIDEWAYS 2h
04 Sep 2025 19:00 05 Sep 2025 12:00 $0.80 $0.84 +4.66% SIDEWAYS 18h
06 Sep 2025 09:00 06 Sep 2025 13:00 $0.82 $0.82 -0.03% SIDEWAYS 5h
07 Sep 2025 02:00 09 Sep 2025 01:00 $0.83 $0.87 +4.38% SIDEWAYS 2d
09 Sep 2025 16:00 11 Sep 2025 01:00 $0.86 $0.89 +2.89% SIDEWAYS 1.4d
11 Sep 2025 15:00 12 Sep 2025 06:00 $0.88 $0.90 +2.41% SIDEWAYS 16h
12 Sep 2025 19:00 12 Sep 2025 23:00 $0.91 $0.92 +0.73% SIDEWAYS 5h
15 Sep 2025 09:00 18 Sep 2025 16:00 $0.86 $0.92 +6.90% SIDEWAYS 3.3d
20 Sep 2025 02:00 20 Sep 2025 06:00 $0.90 $0.90 +0.25% SIDEWAYS 5h
21 Sep 2025 17:00 21 Sep 2025 19:00 $0.89 $0.89 -0.22% SIDEWAYS 3h
22 Sep 2025 19:00 22 Sep 2025 21:00 $0.82 $0.83 +1.03% SIDEWAYS 3h
24 Sep 2025 04:00 24 Sep 2025 09:00 $0.81 $0.82 +1.09% SIDEWAYS 6h
25 Sep 2025 18:00 27 Sep 2025 23:00 $0.78 $0.78 +0.08% SIDEWAYS 2.3d
28 Sep 2025 02:00 29 Sep 2025 10:00 $0.77 $0.80 +2.14% SIDEWAYS 1.4d
30 Sep 2025 05:00 30 Sep 2025 15:00 $0.80 $0.78 -2.66% SIDEWAYS 11h
01 Oct 2025 04:00 02 Oct 2025 02:00 $0.80 $0.86 +6.71% SIDEWAYS 23h
02 Oct 2025 15:00 02 Oct 2025 19:00 $0.85 $0.87 +1.98% SIDEWAYS 5h
03 Oct 2025 12:00 03 Oct 2025 15:00 $0.85 $0.87 +1.84% SIDEWAYS 4h
04 Oct 2025 15:00 05 Oct 2025 07:00 $0.84 $0.88 +4.66% SIDEWAYS 17h
05 Oct 2025 20:00 06 Oct 2025 15:00 $0.83 $0.87 +4.16% BUBBLE 20h
08 Oct 2025 01:00 09 Oct 2025 02:00 $0.83 $0.81 -1.85% BUBBLE 1.1d
09 Oct 2025 16:00 10 Oct 2025 02:00 $0.80 $0.81 +1.76% BULL 11h
10 Oct 2025 19:00 10 Oct 2025 21:00 $0.77 $0.69 -10.03% BULL 3h
12 Oct 2025 02:00 12 Oct 2025 17:00 $0.62 $0.69 +10.51% BULL 16h
13 Oct 2025 06:00 13 Oct 2025 08:00 $0.71 $0.73 +1.38% SIDEWAYS 3h
14 Oct 2025 07:00 15 Oct 2025 06:00 $0.68 $0.70 +3.28% SIDEWAYS 24h
17 Oct 2025 08:00 19 Oct 2025 14:00 $0.60 $0.66 +9.61% SIDEWAYS 2.3d
20 Oct 2025 03:00 20 Oct 2025 05:00 $0.66 $0.67 +0.37% SIDEWAYS 3h
21 Oct 2025 05:00 21 Oct 2025 14:00 $0.64 $0.67 +4.76% SIDEWAYS 10h
22 Oct 2025 10:00 22 Oct 2025 12:00 $0.63 $0.64 +0.75% SIDEWAYS 3h
23 Oct 2025 01:00 23 Oct 2025 17:00 $0.63 $0.65 +3.69% SIDEWAYS 17h
24 Oct 2025 06:00 24 Oct 2025 08:00 $0.65 $0.65 -0.82% SIDEWAYS 3h
24 Oct 2025 21:00 24 Oct 2025 23:00 $0.66 $0.66 -0.64% SIDEWAYS 3h
26 Oct 2025 03:00 26 Oct 2025 13:00 $0.65 $0.68 +4.13% SIDEWAYS 11h
29 Oct 2025 01:00 29 Oct 2025 06:00 $0.64 $0.65 -0.21% SIDEWAYS 6h
30 Oct 2025 19:00 31 Oct 2025 12:00 $0.59 $0.61 +3.61% SIDEWAYS 18h
02 Nov 2025 20:00 02 Nov 2025 22:00 $0.60 $0.60 -0.29% SIDEWAYS 3h
03 Nov 2025 16:00 03 Nov 2025 17:00 $0.56 $0.57 +0.75% SIDEWAYS 2h
04 Nov 2025 20:00 04 Nov 2025 22:00 $0.51 $0.52 +2.19% SIDEWAYS 3h
05 Nov 2025 11:00 05 Nov 2025 15:00 $0.54 $0.55 +2.18% SIDEWAYS 5h
06 Nov 2025 15:00 08 Nov 2025 01:00 $0.52 $0.58 +10.98% SIDEWAYS 1.5d
08 Nov 2025 17:00 08 Nov 2025 19:00 $0.56 $0.56 -0.41% SIDEWAYS 3h
09 Nov 2025 03:00 10 Nov 2025 10:00 $0.55 $0.59 +7.62% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
12 Nov 2025 01:00 12 Nov 2025 04:00 $0.56 $0.56 -0.12% SIDEWAYS 4h
12 Nov 2025 19:00 13 Nov 2025 05:00 $0.54 $0.57 +3.86% SIDEWAYS 11h
15 Nov 2025 01:00 15 Nov 2025 08:00 $0.51 $0.50 -1.99% BEAR 8h
16 Nov 2025 17:00 16 Nov 2025 20:00 $0.48 $0.48 -0.22% BEAR 4h
17 Nov 2025 20:00 18 Nov 2025 16:00 $0.46 $0.48 +3.49% BEAR 21h
19 Nov 2025 06:00 19 Nov 2025 08:00 $0.46 $0.47 +0.39% BEAR 3h
19 Nov 2025 21:00 20 Nov 2025 04:00 $0.46 $0.47 +1.69% BEAR 8h
21 Nov 2025 08:00 21 Nov 2025 14:00 $0.41 $0.41 -0.60% BEAR 7h
23 Nov 2025 02:00 23 Nov 2025 13:00 $0.41 $0.42 +1.05% BEAR 12h
24 Nov 2025 02:00 24 Nov 2025 19:00 $0.42 $0.43 +2.30% BEAR 18h
25 Nov 2025 14:00 26 Nov 2025 09:00 $0.41 $0.42 +2.31% BEAR 20h
26 Nov 2025 22:00 27 Nov 2025 01:00 $0.44 $0.44 +0.12% BEAR 4h
29 Nov 2025 08:00 29 Nov 2025 13:00 $0.42 $0.42 +0.12% SIDEWAYS 6h
30 Nov 2025 02:00 30 Nov 2025 10:00 $0.41 $0.42 +0.79% SIDEWAYS 9h
01 Dec 2025 13:00 02 Dec 2025 15:00 $0.38 $0.43 +12.87% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
03 Dec 2025 04:00 03 Dec 2025 21:00 $0.44 $0.45 +2.58% SIDEWAYS 18h
07 Dec 2025 18:00 09 Dec 2025 16:00 $0.43 $0.48 +9.54% SIDEWAYS 2d
11 Dec 2025 17:00 11 Dec 2025 20:00 $0.41 $0.42 +2.35% SIDEWAYS 4h
15 Dec 2025 21:00 15 Dec 2025 23:00 $0.38 $0.39 +0.71% SIDEWAYS 3h
17 Dec 2025 07:00 17 Dec 2025 13:00 $0.38 $0.38 +0.53% BEAR 7h
18 Dec 2025 21:00 19 Dec 2025 19:00 $0.35 $0.38 +6.19% BEAR 23h
21 Dec 2025 14:00 22 Dec 2025 14:00 $0.36 $0.38 +4.14% BEAR 1d
23 Dec 2025 15:00 23 Dec 2025 19:00 $0.36 $0.36 -0.30% BEAR 5h
26 Dec 2025 00:00 26 Dec 2025 12:00 $0.34 $0.36 +3.45% SIDEWAYS 13h
27 Dec 2025 01:00 28 Dec 2025 08:00 $0.35 $0.37 +5.73% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
28 Dec 2025 21:00 29 Dec 2025 01:00 $0.36 $0.37 +2.38% SIDEWAYS 5h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live ADA signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Cardano Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time ADA signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

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82.0% Win Rate +1,743.0% Return -5.1% Max Drawdown Net of Fees