BTCBTCBitcoin$64,300.01+1.19%
24h High$64,388.00
24h Low$63,184.21
Volume$626.8M
Updated23:53 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / BTC / BTC — Q1 2024 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

BTC Bitcoin Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for BTC - Bitcoin. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the Q1-2024 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 47 trades would have compounded to a final value of $26,650 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros • 47 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a decentralized proof-of-work blockchain with a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Bitcoin is widely regarded as digital gold and serves as the benchmark asset for the entire crypto market. Its four-year halving cycles have historically driven major bull markets, making cycle-aware trading models particularly effective for BTC.

Performance Price & Trades Trade Stats Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ BTC Signals →

BTC — Q1 2024 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Bitcoin (BTC) — compounded across 3 months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Quarterly Return
+166.5%
$10,000 →
$26,650
Win Rate
91.5%
43W / 4L
Trades
47
Sharpe
13.98
Alpha vs B&H
+104.66pp
Risk / Reward
94.82×
B&H Return
+61.84%
Max Drawdown
-1.76%
Avg Drawdown
-2.00%
Sharpe Trend
+22.14
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest
View →

Day-by-day — BTC — Q1 2024 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for BTC over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 47-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+2.51%
Avg Loss
-0.60%
Best Trade
+10.55%
Worst Trade
-1.76%
Avg Bars Held
21.1h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Forward-pred: 33 (70%) Signal flip: 9 (19%) Trailing stop: 3 (6%) Short signal: 1 (2%) Stop-loss: 1 (2%)
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +166.5% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 91.5% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -1.8%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +2.37% on 35 trades, WR 91%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 35 91.4% +2.37% +124.60% 20h
SIDEWAYS 6 100.0% +2.23% +14.08% 23h
BULL 6 83.3% +1.54% +9.43% 1.1d

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 47 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
07 Jan 2024 02:00 07 Jan 2024 12:00 $43,930.28 $44,088.63 -0.05% BULL 11h
08 Jan 2024 01:00 09 Jan 2024 01:00 $43,713.06 $46,556.62 +6.40% BUBBLE 1d
09 Jan 2024 22:00 11 Jan 2024 11:00 $46,254.00 $47,060.00 +1.64% BUBBLE 1.6d
13 Jan 2024 04:00 14 Jan 2024 00:00 $42,840.01 $42,687.36 -0.46% BUBBLE 21h
15 Jan 2024 01:00 15 Jan 2024 19:00 $42,275.18 $42,992.67 +1.60% BUBBLE 19h
16 Jan 2024 10:00 16 Jan 2024 21:00 $42,872.00 $43,434.71 +1.21% BULL 12h
17 Jan 2024 17:00 18 Jan 2024 02:00 $42,371.10 $42,653.82 +0.57% BULL 10h
19 Jan 2024 01:00 20 Jan 2024 08:00 $41,270.00 $41,590.00 +0.67% BULL 1.3d
23 Jan 2024 01:00 23 Jan 2024 05:00 $39,830.71 $40,069.34 +0.19% SIDEWAYS 5h
23 Jan 2024 18:00 24 Jan 2024 10:00 $39,092.54 $40,352.42 +3.12% SIDEWAYS 17h
24 Jan 2024 23:00 27 Jan 2024 08:00 $40,084.88 $41,671.43 +3.81% SIDEWAYS 2.4d
27 Jan 2024 21:00 28 Jan 2024 04:00 $42,150.59 $42,720.32 +1.25% SIDEWAYS 8h
28 Jan 2024 19:00 30 Jan 2024 01:00 $41,785.92 $43,439.51 +3.85% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
31 Jan 2024 00:00 31 Jan 2024 16:00 $42,933.21 $43,474.81 +1.16% SIDEWAYS 17h
04 Feb 2024 09:00 05 Feb 2024 12:00 $42,942.73 $43,255.36 +0.32% BULL 1.2d
06 Feb 2024 01:00 08 Feb 2024 20:00 $42,671.11 $45,496.21 +6.51% BULL 2.8d
10 Feb 2024 01:00 12 Feb 2024 00:00 $47,302.01 $48,604.00 +2.65% BULL 2d
12 Feb 2024 15:00 13 Feb 2024 09:00 $49,917.80 $50,204.99 +0.47% BUBBLE 19h
13 Feb 2024 22:00 15 Feb 2024 00:00 $49,521.54 $52,321.20 +5.55% BUBBLE 1.1d
15 Feb 2024 22:00 17 Feb 2024 02:00 $51,644.40 $51,940.59 +0.43% BUBBLE 1.2d
18 Feb 2024 02:00 19 Feb 2024 11:00 $51,277.99 $52,336.22 +1.65% BUBBLE 1.4d
20 Feb 2024 00:00 20 Feb 2024 13:00 $51,641.82 $52,840.13 +2.22% BUBBLE 14h
21 Feb 2024 10:00 21 Feb 2024 23:00 $51,271.10 $51,849.39 +1.03% BUBBLE 14h
22 Feb 2024 14:00 22 Feb 2024 20:00 $51,374.00 $51,995.58 +1.11% BUBBLE 7h
23 Feb 2024 23:00 26 Feb 2024 07:00 $50,744.15 $51,399.37 +1.15% BUBBLE 2.4d
26 Feb 2024 20:00 27 Feb 2024 14:00 $54,448.09 $56,976.33 +4.54% BUBBLE 19h
28 Feb 2024 03:00 28 Feb 2024 08:00 $56,916.40 $59,448.42 +4.34% BUBBLE 6h
28 Feb 2024 22:00 28 Feb 2024 23:00 $61,274.94 $62,432.10 +1.79% BUBBLE 2h
29 Feb 2024 19:00 01 Mar 2024 13:00 $61,600.00 $62,457.98 +1.29% BUBBLE 19h
03 Mar 2024 09:00 05 Mar 2024 01:00 $61,715.05 $68,506.04 +10.55% BUBBLE 1.7d
05 Mar 2024 20:00 05 Mar 2024 23:00 $61,886.32 $63,724.01 +2.87% BULL 4h
06 Mar 2024 12:00 06 Mar 2024 17:00 $65,929.50 $67,324.84 +2.01% BUBBLE 6h
07 Mar 2024 11:00 07 Mar 2024 17:00 $66,905.34 $67,592.92 +0.93% BUBBLE 7h
08 Mar 2024 06:00 08 Mar 2024 14:00 $67,563.60 $68,422.00 +1.17% BUBBLE 9h
09 Mar 2024 03:00 10 Mar 2024 12:00 $68,247.34 $69,777.94 +2.14% BUBBLE 1.4d
11 Mar 2024 01:00 11 Mar 2024 16:00 $68,299.17 $72,501.10 +6.05% BUBBLE 16h
12 Mar 2024 05:00 13 Mar 2024 08:00 $71,981.11 $73,433.50 +1.92% BUBBLE 1.2d
15 Mar 2024 13:00 15 Mar 2024 18:00 $68,474.26 $70,234.00 +2.47% BUBBLE 6h
17 Mar 2024 02:00 17 Mar 2024 06:00 $66,364.17 $65,538.67 -1.76% BUBBLE 5h
17 Mar 2024 19:00 18 Mar 2024 05:00 $68,536.73 $68,693.43 +0.13% BUBBLE 11h
20 Mar 2024 01:00 20 Mar 2024 20:00 $62,374.86 $67,057.56 +7.40% BUBBLE 20h
22 Mar 2024 14:00 23 Mar 2024 12:00 $62,739.99 $64,697.94 +3.02% BUBBLE 23h
24 Mar 2024 01:00 25 Mar 2024 04:00 $64,470.00 $67,505.99 +4.60% BUBBLE 1.2d
25 Mar 2024 19:00 26 Mar 2024 09:00 $70,960.89 $71,142.23 +0.16% BUBBLE 15h
26 Mar 2024 22:00 27 Mar 2024 11:00 $70,249.22 $70,220.73 -0.14% BUBBLE 14h
28 Mar 2024 07:00 28 Mar 2024 12:00 $70,399.03 $70,839.16 +0.52% BUBBLE 6h
31 Mar 2024 02:00 31 Mar 2024 23:00 $69,990.01 $71,280.01 +1.43% BUBBLE 22h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live BTC signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Bitcoin Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time BTC signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

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91.5% Win Rate +166.5% Return -1.8% Max Drawdown Net of Fees