BTCBTCBitcoin$64,304.00+1.20%
24h High$64,388.00
24h Low$63,184.21
Volume$634.4M
Updated23:48 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / BTC / BTC — Q1 2025 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

BTC Bitcoin Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for BTC - Bitcoin. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the Q1-2025 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 41 trades would have compounded to a final value of $23,810 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros • 41 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a decentralized proof-of-work blockchain with a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Bitcoin is widely regarded as digital gold and serves as the benchmark asset for the entire crypto market. Its four-year halving cycles have historically driven major bull markets, making cycle-aware trading models particularly effective for BTC.

Performance Price & Trades Trade Stats Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ BTC Signals →

BTC — Q1 2025 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Bitcoin (BTC) — compounded across 3 months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Quarterly Return
+138.1%
$10,000 →
$23,810
Win Rate
90.2%
37W / 4L
Trades
41
Sharpe
14.14
Alpha vs B&H
+154.25pp
Risk / Reward
99+×
B&H Return
-16.15%
Max Drawdown
-0.57%
Avg Drawdown
-1.62%
Sharpe Trend
-7.63
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest
View →

Day-by-day — BTC — Q1 2025 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for BTC over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 41-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+2.88%
Avg Loss
-0.16%
Best Trade
+9.25%
Worst Trade
-0.31%
Avg Bars Held
20.1h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Forward-pred: 25 (61%) Signal flip: 15 (37%) Trailing stop: 1 (2%)
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +138.1% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 90.2% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -0.6%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +4.06% on 10 trades, WR 100%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 10 100.0% +4.06% +48.49% 1.1d
SIDEWAYS 24 83.3% +1.57% +44.72% 19h
BEAR 4 100.0% +4.02% +16.85% 10h
BULL 3 100.0% +3.97% +12.24% 24h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 41 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
05 Jan 2025 02:00 06 Jan 2025 21:00 $98,227.48 $101,611.92 +3.02% BUBBLE 1.8d
08 Jan 2025 13:00 08 Jan 2025 15:00 $95,384.00 $95,493.77 +0.02% BUBBLE 3h
09 Jan 2025 20:00 10 Jan 2025 17:00 $91,903.22 $95,793.05 +4.13% BUBBLE 22h
11 Jan 2025 06:00 13 Jan 2025 00:00 $94,216.25 $95,325.43 +1.08% BULL 1.8d
13 Jan 2025 14:00 13 Jan 2025 21:00 $91,833.03 $94,193.49 +2.47% BULL 8h
14 Jan 2025 10:00 18 Jan 2025 00:00 $96,697.08 $104,656.87 +8.12% BULL 3.6d
20 Jan 2025 01:00 20 Jan 2025 06:00 $100,692.82 $107,486.50 +6.31% BUBBLE 6h
21 Jan 2025 01:00 21 Jan 2025 18:00 $101,498.24 $106,861.18 +5.18% BUBBLE 18h
23 Jan 2025 10:00 23 Jan 2025 17:00 $101,683.61 $105,927.78 +4.07% BUBBLE 8h
24 Jan 2025 06:00 24 Jan 2025 17:00 $104,991.01 $106,458.46 +1.30% BUBBLE 12h
27 Jan 2025 07:00 28 Jan 2025 03:00 $99,048.02 $102,636.32 +3.52% BUBBLE 21h
28 Jan 2025 21:00 30 Jan 2025 10:00 $100,334.01 $105,345.40 +4.89% BUBBLE 1.6d
03 Feb 2025 02:00 03 Feb 2025 21:00 $93,566.01 $101,802.55 +8.36% BULL 20h
06 Feb 2025 01:00 06 Feb 2025 06:00 $97,159.68 $98,386.89 +1.16% SIDEWAYS 6h
07 Feb 2025 01:00 07 Feb 2025 03:00 $97,404.01 $97,444.04 -0.06% SIDEWAYS 3h
07 Feb 2025 21:00 09 Feb 2025 03:00 $96,011.42 $97,300.00 +1.24% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
09 Feb 2025 22:00 10 Feb 2025 13:00 $95,831.64 $98,215.72 +2.39% SIDEWAYS 16h
12 Feb 2025 01:00 12 Feb 2025 23:00 $96,207.32 $97,869.99 +1.63% SIDEWAYS 23h
13 Feb 2025 13:00 14 Feb 2025 17:00 $96,074.66 $98,526.00 +2.45% SIDEWAYS 1.2d
17 Feb 2025 17:00 18 Feb 2025 02:00 $95,479.78 $96,064.47 +0.20% SIDEWAYS 10h
18 Feb 2025 17:00 21 Feb 2025 01:00 $94,102.16 $98,312.00 +4.37% SIDEWAYS 2.4d
21 Feb 2025 21:00 22 Feb 2025 20:00 $95,395.03 $96,578.01 +1.14% SIDEWAYS 24h
23 Feb 2025 17:00 23 Feb 2025 19:00 $95,656.78 $95,755.99 +0.00% SIDEWAYS 3h
25 Feb 2025 18:00 25 Feb 2025 21:00 $87,070.07 $88,821.00 +1.91% SIDEWAYS 4h
26 Feb 2025 21:00 27 Feb 2025 10:00 $84,610.86 $87,013.46 +2.74% SIDEWAYS 14h
28 Feb 2025 07:00 28 Feb 2025 13:00 $79,204.59 $81,512.42 +2.81% SIDEWAYS 7h
01 Mar 2025 02:00 01 Mar 2025 04:00 $85,240.46 $86,190.01 +1.01% BEAR 3h
02 Mar 2025 02:00 02 Mar 2025 17:00 $85,774.01 $94,093.75 +9.25% BEAR 16h
04 Mar 2025 02:00 04 Mar 2025 18:00 $83,936.41 $86,764.24 +3.27% BEAR 17h
05 Mar 2025 07:00 05 Mar 2025 10:00 $87,619.49 $89,926.07 +2.53% BEAR 4h
06 Mar 2025 18:00 06 Mar 2025 22:00 $88,428.41 $90,313.66 +2.03% SIDEWAYS 5h
11 Mar 2025 01:00 12 Mar 2025 01:00 $79,130.66 $83,313.60 +5.18% SIDEWAYS 1d
13 Mar 2025 17:00 14 Mar 2025 15:00 $80,064.00 $84,724.58 +5.72% SIDEWAYS 23h
16 Mar 2025 12:00 19 Mar 2025 08:00 $82,755.89 $83,568.40 +0.46% SIDEWAYS 2.9d
19 Mar 2025 21:00 20 Mar 2025 01:00 $85,635.99 $85,867.96 +0.17% SIDEWAYS 5h
20 Mar 2025 17:00 22 Mar 2025 18:00 $84,093.43 $84,239.14 +0.07% SIDEWAYS 2.1d
23 Mar 2025 07:00 23 Mar 2025 20:00 $84,279.82 $85,102.62 +0.88% SIDEWAYS 14h
25 Mar 2025 05:00 25 Mar 2025 10:00 $86,656.07 $87,130.14 +0.45% SIDEWAYS 6h
27 Mar 2025 01:00 27 Mar 2025 10:00 $87,378.87 $87,195.59 -0.31% SIDEWAYS 10h
30 Mar 2025 08:00 30 Mar 2025 09:00 $83,378.09 $83,502.32 -0.26% SIDEWAYS 2h
30 Mar 2025 22:00 31 Mar 2025 14:00 $82,438.00 $83,499.18 +1.19% SIDEWAYS 17h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live BTC signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Bitcoin Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time BTC signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → BTC Signals → View Plans →
90.2% Win Rate +138.1% Return -0.6% Max Drawdown Net of Fees