BTCBTCBitcoin$64,006.00+1.28%
24h High$64,388.00
24h Low$62,942.00
Volume$670.5M
Updated17:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / BTC / BTC — Q3 2024 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

BTC Bitcoin Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for BTC - Bitcoin. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the Q3-2024 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 43 trades would have compounded to a final value of $25,797 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros • 43 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a decentralized proof-of-work blockchain with a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Bitcoin is widely regarded as digital gold and serves as the benchmark asset for the entire crypto market. Its four-year halving cycles have historically driven major bull markets, making cycle-aware trading models particularly effective for BTC.

Performance Price & Trades Trade Stats Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ BTC Signals →

BTC — Q3 2024 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Bitcoin (BTC) — compounded across 3 months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Quarterly Return
+158.0%
$10,000 →
$25,797
Win Rate
93.0%
40W / 3L
Trades
43
Sharpe
11.58
Alpha vs B&H
+148.66pp
Risk / Reward
99+×
B&H Return
+9.31%
Max Drawdown
-1.13%
Avg Drawdown
-1.92%
Sharpe Trend
-8.30
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest
View →

Day-by-day — BTC — Q3 2024 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for BTC over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 43-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+2.65%
Avg Loss
-0.77%
Best Trade
+10.84%
Worst Trade
-2.25%
Avg Bars Held
21.9h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Forward-pred: 26 (60%) Signal flip: 12 (28%) Trailing stop: 3 (7%) Short signal: 1 (2%) Stop-loss: 1 (2%)
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +158.0% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 93.0% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -1.1%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +2.88% on 4 trades, WR 100%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 37 91.9% +2.44% +141.36% 21h
BULL 4 100.0% +2.88% +11.83% 1.5d
BUBBLE 2 100.0% +1.02% +2.03% 20h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 43 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
08 Jul 2024 01:00 08 Jul 2024 08:00 $54,958.19 $57,792.00 +4.73% SIDEWAYS 8h
08 Jul 2024 21:00 10 Jul 2024 04:00 $56,642.47 $59,347.44 +4.67% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
10 Jul 2024 17:00 11 Jul 2024 11:00 $57,627.81 $58,777.99 +1.89% SIDEWAYS 19h
12 Jul 2024 00:00 12 Jul 2024 15:00 $57,178.00 $58,214.00 +1.71% SIDEWAYS 16h
13 Jul 2024 08:00 13 Jul 2024 22:00 $57,949.93 $59,464.53 +2.51% SIDEWAYS 15h
14 Jul 2024 11:00 16 Jul 2024 01:00 $60,099.10 $64,848.08 +7.79% SIDEWAYS 1.6d
16 Jul 2024 14:00 16 Jul 2024 15:00 $63,836.09 $64,878.24 +1.53% SIDEWAYS 2h
17 Jul 2024 12:00 17 Jul 2024 14:00 $64,730.72 $65,032.09 +0.37% SIDEWAYS 3h
18 Jul 2024 03:00 20 Jul 2024 12:00 $64,865.08 $66,513.64 +2.40% BULL 2.4d
21 Jul 2024 18:00 22 Jul 2024 01:00 $66,864.42 $67,850.01 +1.06% BULL 8h
25 Jul 2024 11:00 27 Jul 2024 13:00 $64,096.00 $69,226.01 +7.90% BULL 2.1d
28 Jul 2024 02:00 29 Jul 2024 06:00 $68,149.45 $69,588.01 +2.01% BULL 1.2d
30 Jul 2024 15:00 31 Jul 2024 01:00 $66,216.01 $66,296.00 +0.02% BUBBLE 11h
01 Aug 2024 01:00 02 Aug 2024 02:00 $64,202.00 $64,359.91 +0.15% BUBBLE 1.1d
05 Aug 2024 11:00 05 Aug 2024 14:00 $51,340.00 $54,061.68 +4.87% SIDEWAYS 4h
06 Aug 2024 03:00 06 Aug 2024 15:00 $55,665.73 $56,405.99 +1.23% SIDEWAYS 13h
07 Aug 2024 23:00 08 Aug 2024 21:00 $55,134.16 $61,173.69 +10.84% SIDEWAYS 23h
12 Aug 2024 01:00 13 Aug 2024 00:00 $58,584.01 $59,798.17 +1.97% SIDEWAYS 24h
13 Aug 2024 13:00 14 Aug 2024 01:00 $59,395.25 $60,520.40 +1.79% SIDEWAYS 13h
15 Aug 2024 08:00 15 Aug 2024 12:00 $58,378.30 $58,800.26 +0.62% SIDEWAYS 5h
16 Aug 2024 01:00 16 Aug 2024 19:00 $57,540.96 $59,683.39 +3.62% SIDEWAYS 19h
18 Aug 2024 04:00 18 Aug 2024 13:00 $59,456.00 $59,828.00 +0.21% SIDEWAYS 10h
19 Aug 2024 02:00 20 Aug 2024 09:00 $58,670.51 $60,856.04 +3.62% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
20 Aug 2024 22:00 22 Aug 2024 10:00 $59,368.00 $61,350.01 +3.24% SIDEWAYS 1.5d
22 Aug 2024 23:00 24 Aug 2024 07:00 $60,375.84 $64,315.00 +6.42% SIDEWAYS 1.4d
24 Aug 2024 22:00 25 Aug 2024 22:00 $63,833.98 $64,482.01 +0.91% SIDEWAYS 1d
28 Aug 2024 08:00 28 Aug 2024 09:00 $59,223.99 $60,200.12 +1.55% SIDEWAYS 2h
28 Aug 2024 22:00 29 Aug 2024 14:00 $59,195.43 $60,814.99 +2.63% SIDEWAYS 17h
30 Aug 2024 16:00 31 Aug 2024 15:00 $58,551.11 $59,006.54 +0.68% SIDEWAYS 24h
02 Sep 2024 01:00 02 Sep 2024 10:00 $57,423.23 $58,498.51 +1.46% SIDEWAYS 10h
02 Sep 2024 23:00 03 Sep 2024 00:00 $59,132.13 $59,257.99 +0.11% SIDEWAYS 2h
04 Sep 2024 00:00 04 Sep 2024 16:00 $57,140.02 $58,406.07 +2.11% SIDEWAYS 17h
06 Sep 2024 21:00 06 Sep 2024 23:00 $53,766.57 $53,962.97 +0.26% SIDEWAYS 3h
07 Sep 2024 12:00 07 Sep 2024 14:00 $54,578.71 $54,632.17 +0.00% SIDEWAYS 3h
08 Sep 2024 03:00 11 Sep 2024 05:00 $54,402.99 $56,351.91 +3.44% SIDEWAYS 3.1d
11 Sep 2024 18:00 12 Sep 2024 17:00 $57,500.00 $58,389.10 +1.44% SIDEWAYS 24h
13 Sep 2024 16:00 14 Sep 2024 01:00 $59,452.31 $60,406.06 +1.50% SIDEWAYS 10h
15 Sep 2024 23:00 17 Sep 2024 00:00 $59,132.00 $58,100.03 -2.25% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
17 Sep 2024 13:00 18 Sep 2024 08:00 $58,966.00 $60,304.78 +2.13% SIDEWAYS 20h
18 Sep 2024 21:00 19 Sep 2024 16:00 $60,199.46 $63,556.92 +5.47% SIDEWAYS 20h
20 Sep 2024 05:00 23 Sep 2024 01:00 $63,809.99 $63,826.80 -0.07% SIDEWAYS 2.9d
24 Sep 2024 03:00 25 Sep 2024 04:00 $63,124.00 $64,172.85 +1.56% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
25 Sep 2024 18:00 27 Sep 2024 08:00 $63,351.00 $65,725.99 +3.65% SIDEWAYS 1.6d

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live BTC signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Bitcoin Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time BTC signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → BTC Signals → View Plans →
93.0% Win Rate +158.0% Return -1.1% Max Drawdown Net of Fees