BTCBTCBitcoin$64,100.01+1.40%
24h High$64,150.00
24h Low$62,866.99
Volume$720.5M
Updated15:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / BTC / BTC — Q4 2025 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

BTC Bitcoin Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for BTC - Bitcoin. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the Q4-2025 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 38 trades would have compounded to a final value of $20,441 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros • 38 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a decentralized proof-of-work blockchain with a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Bitcoin is widely regarded as digital gold and serves as the benchmark asset for the entire crypto market. Its four-year halving cycles have historically driven major bull markets, making cycle-aware trading models particularly effective for BTC.

Performance Price & Trades Trade Stats Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ BTC Signals →

BTC — Q4 2025 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Bitcoin (BTC) — compounded across 3 months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Quarterly Return
+104.4%
$10,000 →
$20,441
Win Rate
92.1%
35W / 3L
Trades
38
Sharpe
14.29
Alpha vs B&H
+132.34pp
Risk / Reward
97.11×
B&H Return
-27.93%
Max Drawdown
-1.08%
Avg Drawdown
-1.56%
Sharpe Trend
-1.87
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest
View →

Day-by-day — BTC — Q4 2025 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for BTC over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 38-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+2.38%
Avg Loss
-0.78%
Best Trade
+6.61%
Worst Trade
-2.15%
Avg Bars Held
21.9h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Forward-pred: 22 (58%) Signal flip: 8 (21%) Short signal: 3 (8%) Trailing stop: 3 (8%) Regime exit: 1 (3%) Stop-loss: 1 (3%)
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +104.4% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 92.1% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -1.1%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BEAR — avg +2.23% on 11 trades, WR 100%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 24 87.5% +2.18% +67.10% 22h
BEAR 11 100.0% +2.23% +27.34% 1.0d
BUBBLE 3 100.0% +1.32% +4.02% 15h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 38 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
05 Oct 2025 02:00 05 Oct 2025 04:00 $124,031.44 $125,172.81 +0.51% BUBBLE 3h
05 Oct 2025 17:00 06 Oct 2025 16:00 $123,057.05 $125,455.24 +1.85% BUBBLE 24h
08 Oct 2025 01:00 08 Oct 2025 17:00 $121,950.01 $124,033.19 +1.61% BUBBLE 17h
12 Oct 2025 01:00 13 Oct 2025 00:00 $109,978.56 $115,280.84 +4.72% BULL 24h
14 Oct 2025 13:00 14 Oct 2025 15:00 $111,014.38 $112,900.43 +1.60% SIDEWAYS 3h
17 Oct 2025 09:00 17 Oct 2025 20:00 $104,531.35 $107,021.37 +2.28% SIDEWAYS 12h
19 Oct 2025 09:00 20 Oct 2025 14:00 $107,401.47 $111,210.86 +3.12% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
21 Oct 2025 05:00 21 Oct 2025 14:00 $107,537.12 $112,170.52 +4.20% SIDEWAYS 10h
22 Oct 2025 22:00 23 Oct 2025 17:00 $107,196.82 $111,241.71 +3.67% SIDEWAYS 20h
24 Oct 2025 06:00 25 Oct 2025 12:00 $111,464.36 $111,899.03 +0.29% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
26 Oct 2025 01:00 26 Oct 2025 23:00 $111,644.42 $114,559.40 +2.51% SIDEWAYS 23h
30 Oct 2025 05:00 30 Oct 2025 07:00 $110,248.29 $111,366.72 +0.91% SIDEWAYS 3h
30 Oct 2025 20:00 31 Oct 2025 14:00 $107,510.91 $110,790.14 +2.95% SIDEWAYS 19h
01 Nov 2025 06:00 01 Nov 2025 13:00 $110,004.82 $109,946.27 -0.15% SIDEWAYS 8h
04 Nov 2025 22:00 05 Nov 2025 18:00 $101,295.71 $104,347.40 +2.59% SIDEWAYS 21h
06 Nov 2025 15:00 10 Nov 2025 10:00 $102,014.48 $105,995.26 +3.80% SIDEWAYS 3.8d
12 Nov 2025 01:00 12 Nov 2025 03:00 $103,254.64 $103,310.00 -0.05% SIDEWAYS 3h
16 Nov 2025 22:00 17 Nov 2025 02:00 $94,183.36 $94,976.18 +0.43% BEAR 5h
18 Nov 2025 03:00 19 Nov 2025 02:00 $90,842.72 $92,569.12 +1.80% BEAR 24h
19 Nov 2025 17:00 19 Nov 2025 23:00 $89,500.01 $91,554.96 +2.19% BEAR 7h
21 Nov 2025 09:00 22 Nov 2025 08:00 $82,207.84 $84,067.19 +2.12% BEAR 24h
22 Nov 2025 21:00 23 Nov 2025 20:00 $84,411.30 $87,483.36 +3.54% BEAR 24h
24 Nov 2025 09:00 24 Nov 2025 20:00 $85,944.91 $89,089.06 +3.55% BEAR 12h
25 Nov 2025 09:00 27 Nov 2025 13:00 $87,231.76 $90,915.39 +4.08% BEAR 2.2d
01 Dec 2025 16:00 01 Dec 2025 21:00 $84,571.80 $86,436.65 +1.79% SIDEWAYS 6h
02 Dec 2025 10:00 03 Dec 2025 13:00 $87,272.44 $93,130.88 +6.61% SIDEWAYS 1.2d
07 Dec 2025 01:00 07 Dec 2025 20:00 $89,300.00 $91,439.04 +2.29% SIDEWAYS 20h
08 Dec 2025 09:00 08 Dec 2025 10:00 $91,912.02 $92,133.40 +0.14% SIDEWAYS 2h
09 Dec 2025 00:00 09 Dec 2025 16:00 $90,396.73 $94,187.81 +4.09% SIDEWAYS 17h
11 Dec 2025 03:00 11 Dec 2025 21:00 $89,880.01 $92,858.39 +3.21% SIDEWAYS 19h
15 Dec 2025 18:00 17 Dec 2025 00:00 $86,185.39 $87,537.21 +1.04% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
17 Dec 2025 20:00 18 Dec 2025 04:00 $85,891.18 $86,765.43 +0.92% BEAR 9h
18 Dec 2025 20:00 19 Dec 2025 17:00 $84,582.65 $87,056.48 +2.78% BEAR 22h
20 Dec 2025 06:00 22 Dec 2025 12:00 $88,305.81 $90,208.48 +2.05% BEAR 2.3d
23 Dec 2025 05:00 25 Dec 2025 15:00 $87,765.01 $88,371.27 +0.59% BEAR 2.5d
26 Dec 2025 04:00 26 Dec 2025 15:00 $88,969.24 $87,178.54 -2.15% SIDEWAYS 12h
28 Dec 2025 02:00 29 Dec 2025 03:00 $87,810.78 $90,123.55 +2.21% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
29 Dec 2025 16:00 31 Dec 2025 02:00 $87,627.11 $88,673.60 +1.09% SIDEWAYS 1.5d

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live BTC signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Bitcoin Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time BTC signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → BTC Signals → View Plans →
92.1% Win Rate +104.4% Return -1.1% Max Drawdown Net of Fees