BTCBTCBitcoin$64,304.00+1.20%
24h High$64,388.00
24h Low$63,184.21
Volume$634.4M
Updated23:48 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / BTC / BTC — YTD 2026 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

BTC Bitcoin Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for BTC - Bitcoin. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the YTD 2026 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 63 trades would have compounded to a final value of $28,798 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros • 63 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a decentralized proof-of-work blockchain with a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Bitcoin is widely regarded as digital gold and serves as the benchmark asset for the entire crypto market. Its four-year halving cycles have historically driven major bull markets, making cycle-aware trading models particularly effective for BTC.

Performance Price & Trades Trade Stats Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ BTC Signals →

BTC — YTD 2026 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Bitcoin (BTC) — year-to-date paper-trade 2026-01-01 → 2026-05-01, single OOS window, model trained on data up to 2025-12-31. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

YTD Return
+188.0%
$10,000 →
$28,798
Win Rate
87.3%
55W / 8L
Trades
63
Sharpe
13.42
Alpha vs B&H
+204.03pp
Risk / Reward
83.36×
B&H Return
-16.06%
Max Drawdown
-2.26%
Avg Drawdown
-1.99%
Sharpe Trend
+2.09
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest
View →

Day-by-day — BTC — YTD 2026 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for BTC over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 63-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+2.42%
Avg Loss
-1.10%
Best Trade
+7.53%
Worst Trade
-2.25%
Avg Bars Held
17.3h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Forward-pred: 42 (67%) Signal flip: 9 (14%) Short signal: 7 (11%) Stop-loss: 3 (5%) Trailing stop: 2 (3%)
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +188.0% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 87.3% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -2.3%.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 63 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BEAR — avg +2.40% on 37 trades, WR 89%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BEAR 37 89.2% +2.40% +138.40% 18h
SIDEWAYS 26 84.6% +1.36% +41.89% 16h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 63 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
04 Jan 2026 02:00 04 Jan 2026 14:00 $91,124.00 $91,336.39 -0.18% SIDEWAYS 13h
05 Jan 2026 09:00 05 Jan 2026 15:00 $92,688.60 $93,957.73 +1.27% SIDEWAYS 7h
06 Jan 2026 18:00 06 Jan 2026 22:00 $92,034.09 $93,362.68 +1.34% SIDEWAYS 5h
08 Jan 2026 10:00 08 Jan 2026 17:00 $90,410.10 $91,366.39 +0.96% SIDEWAYS 8h
09 Jan 2026 06:00 09 Jan 2026 16:00 $91,137.58 $91,623.89 +0.43% SIDEWAYS 11h
10 Jan 2026 06:00 12 Jan 2026 02:00 $90,505.47 $92,203.56 +1.77% SIDEWAYS 1.9d
12 Jan 2026 15:00 12 Jan 2026 16:00 $91,665.00 $92,123.52 +0.40% SIDEWAYS 2h
13 Jan 2026 07:00 13 Jan 2026 22:00 $91,942.00 $95,757.21 +4.05% SIDEWAYS 16h
14 Jan 2026 11:00 14 Jan 2026 15:00 $94,792.99 $96,764.57 +1.98% SIDEWAYS 5h
16 Jan 2026 05:00 16 Jan 2026 07:00 $95,660.37 $95,653.16 -0.11% SIDEWAYS 3h
16 Jan 2026 20:00 17 Jan 2026 09:00 $95,553.60 $95,260.65 -0.41% SIDEWAYS 14h
21 Jan 2026 00:00 21 Jan 2026 15:00 $88,936.01 $90,288.04 +1.11% SIDEWAYS 16h
22 Jan 2026 16:00 22 Jan 2026 20:00 $89,054.06 $89,409.72 +0.30% SIDEWAYS 5h
23 Jan 2026 10:00 23 Jan 2026 17:00 $89,046.49 $90,600.00 +1.64% SIDEWAYS 8h
26 Jan 2026 01:00 27 Jan 2026 02:00 $87,698.73 $88,831.60 +1.19% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
27 Jan 2026 15:00 28 Jan 2026 11:00 $88,047.46 $90,080.00 +2.21% SIDEWAYS 21h
30 Jan 2026 02:00 30 Jan 2026 21:00 $82,164.88 $84,273.70 +2.46% SIDEWAYS 20h
01 Feb 2026 02:00 01 Feb 2026 16:00 $78,900.01 $77,523.05 -2.25% BEAR 15h
02 Feb 2026 05:00 02 Feb 2026 15:00 $75,502.10 $78,850.06 +4.33% BEAR 11h
03 Feb 2026 19:00 03 Feb 2026 20:00 $74,935.00 $76,475.52 +1.95% BEAR 2h
06 Feb 2026 01:00 06 Feb 2026 19:00 $65,714.96 $70,731.46 +7.53% BEAR 19h
07 Feb 2026 08:00 08 Feb 2026 12:00 $68,495.01 $71,249.95 +3.92% BEAR 1.2d
09 Feb 2026 14:00 09 Feb 2026 17:00 $69,272.00 $70,612.29 +1.83% BEAR 4h
10 Feb 2026 15:00 10 Feb 2026 17:00 $69,293.37 $69,925.31 +0.81% BEAR 3h
11 Feb 2026 17:00 11 Feb 2026 21:00 $66,518.26 $67,811.17 +1.84% BEAR 5h
12 Feb 2026 18:00 14 Feb 2026 11:00 $65,590.95 $70,505.74 +7.39% BEAR 1.8d
16 Feb 2026 03:00 16 Feb 2026 09:00 $68,424.82 $68,992.71 +0.42% BEAR 7h
19 Feb 2026 01:00 20 Feb 2026 08:00 $66,866.62 $67,879.99 +1.41% BEAR 1.3d
24 Feb 2026 06:00 24 Feb 2026 20:00 $63,082.79 $64,472.90 +2.10% BEAR 15h
25 Feb 2026 09:00 25 Feb 2026 18:00 $65,558.71 $69,328.07 +5.64% BEAR 10h
26 Feb 2026 17:00 26 Feb 2026 21:00 $66,826.80 $67,463.65 +0.85% BEAR 5h
27 Feb 2026 13:00 27 Feb 2026 22:00 $66,270.55 $65,637.99 -1.05% BEAR 10h
28 Feb 2026 11:00 28 Feb 2026 20:00 $63,844.20 $66,959.62 +4.77% BEAR 10h
01 Mar 2026 13:00 01 Mar 2026 20:00 $66,934.79 $65,766.64 -2.25% BEAR 8h
02 Mar 2026 09:00 02 Mar 2026 16:00 $66,168.62 $69,428.62 +4.82% BEAR 8h
03 Mar 2026 10:00 03 Mar 2026 18:00 $66,860.30 $68,628.49 +2.54% BEAR 9h
04 Mar 2026 08:00 04 Mar 2026 15:00 $71,011.40 $73,396.88 +3.26% BEAR 8h
08 Mar 2026 23:00 09 Mar 2026 14:00 $65,971.20 $69,151.50 +4.72% BEAR 16h
10 Mar 2026 03:00 10 Mar 2026 09:00 $69,429.85 $71,078.92 +2.27% BEAR 7h
10 Mar 2026 22:00 13 Mar 2026 10:00 $69,721.58 $72,458.12 +3.82% BEAR 2.5d
15 Mar 2026 02:00 16 Mar 2026 22:00 $71,450.53 $74,772.66 +4.22% BEAR 1.9d
19 Mar 2026 17:00 19 Mar 2026 19:00 $69,854.16 $70,271.99 +0.50% SIDEWAYS 3h
20 Mar 2026 08:00 20 Mar 2026 22:00 $71,042.23 $70,767.85 -0.49% SIDEWAYS 15h
22 Mar 2026 20:00 24 Mar 2026 01:00 $68,176.46 $70,623.11 +3.44% BEAR 1.3d
24 Mar 2026 14:00 25 Mar 2026 10:00 $69,869.93 $71,501.39 +2.23% BEAR 21h
26 Mar 2026 19:00 26 Mar 2026 23:00 $68,534.36 $68,820.31 +0.32% BEAR 5h
28 Mar 2026 02:00 28 Mar 2026 07:00 $66,053.20 $66,561.48 +0.67% BEAR 6h
29 Mar 2026 23:00 30 Mar 2026 12:00 $66,010.93 $67,899.59 +2.44% BEAR 14h
31 Mar 2026 01:00 31 Mar 2026 09:00 $67,938.54 $66,626.38 -2.07% BEAR 9h
31 Mar 2026 22:00 01 Apr 2026 06:00 $68,172.87 $69,102.85 +1.26% BEAR 9h
02 Apr 2026 09:00 04 Apr 2026 02:00 $66,469.60 $66,864.19 +0.45% BEAR 1.8d
04 Apr 2026 15:00 06 Apr 2026 11:00 $67,383.66 $69,614.91 +3.21% BEAR 1.9d
07 Apr 2026 00:00 08 Apr 2026 05:00 $68,775.70 $71,731.10 +4.19% BEAR 1.3d
08 Apr 2026 23:00 09 Apr 2026 17:00 $71,069.93 $72,347.49 +1.70% BEAR 19h
10 Apr 2026 06:00 10 Apr 2026 20:00 $71,805.38 $73,361.68 +2.07% BEAR 15h
12 Apr 2026 09:00 14 Apr 2026 08:00 $71,531.94 $74,750.00 +4.07% BEAR 2d
14 Apr 2026 21:00 17 Apr 2026 13:00 $74,277.15 $77,340.12 +4.02% BEAR 2.7d
20 Apr 2026 00:00 21 Apr 2026 08:00 $74,280.01 $76,507.21 +2.90% SIDEWAYS 1.4d
21 Apr 2026 21:00 22 Apr 2026 13:00 $75,549.99 $78,840.94 +4.25% SIDEWAYS 17h
23 Apr 2026 03:00 24 Apr 2026 01:00 $77,746.46 $78,429.73 +0.78% SIDEWAYS 23h
26 Apr 2026 06:00 27 Apr 2026 00:00 $77,999.04 $79,308.60 +1.26% SIDEWAYS 19h
27 Apr 2026 22:00 28 Apr 2026 00:00 $77,066.42 $77,379.62 +0.31% SIDEWAYS 3h
28 Apr 2026 15:00 29 Apr 2026 05:00 $76,066.38 $77,288.38 +1.50% SIDEWAYS 15h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live BTC signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Bitcoin Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time BTC signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → BTC Signals → View Plans →
87.3% Win Rate +188.0% Return -2.3% Max Drawdown Net of Fees