MOVRMOVRMoonriver$1.2740-1.55%
24h High$1.31
24h Low$1.24
Volume$438,301
Updated17:58 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / MOVR / MOVR — YTD 2026 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

MOVR Moonriver Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for MOVR - Moonriver. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the YTD 2026 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 77 trades would have compounded to a final value of $268,021 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros • 77 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Moonriver (MOVR) is the Kusama-based canary network of Moonbeam, providing an EVM-compatible smart-contract platform within the Polkadot/Kusama ecosystem. Listed since mid-2021 with multi-cycle history. Price tends to track Polkadot/Kusama parachain narratives and EVM-compatibility catalysts.

Performance Price & Trades Trade Stats Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ MOVR Signals →

MOVR — YTD 2026 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Moonriver (MOVR) — year-to-date paper-trade 2026-01-01 → 2026-05-01, single OOS window, model trained on data up to 2025-12-31. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

YTD Return
+2,580.2%
$10,000 →
$268,021
Win Rate
80.5%
62W / 15L
Trades
77
Sharpe
12.66
Alpha vs B&H
+2,592.19pp
Risk / Reward
99+×
B&H Return
-11.98%
Max Drawdown
-24.76%
Avg Drawdown
-6.20%
Sharpe Trend
-0.52
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest
View →

Day-by-day — MOVR — YTD 2026 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for MOVR over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 77-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+7.65%
Avg Loss
-2.82%
Best Trade
+123.77%
Worst Trade
-12.18%
Avg Bars Held
14.2h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Forward-pred: 37 (48%) Signal flip: 18 (23%) Short signal: 13 (17%) Trailing stop: 6 (8%) Stop-loss: 3 (4%)
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +2,580.2% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 80.5% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↓ Large drawdown: -24.8% — expect volatility on capital.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 77 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: SIDEWAYS — avg +7.72% on 37 trades, WR 73%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 37 73.0% +7.72% +718.69% 11h
BEAR 40 87.5% +3.65% +305.96% 17h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 77 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
04 Jan 2026 02:00 04 Jan 2026 11:00 $2.70 $2.71 +0.00% SIDEWAYS 10h
05 Jan 2026 09:00 06 Jan 2026 12:00 $2.66 $2.78 +4.00% SIDEWAYS 1.2d
06 Jan 2026 18:00 07 Jan 2026 18:00 $2.66 $2.70 +1.02% SIDEWAYS 1d
07 Jan 2026 21:00 08 Jan 2026 04:00 $2.68 $2.79 +3.97% SIDEWAYS 8h
09 Jan 2026 10:00 09 Jan 2026 15:00 $2.69 $2.72 +0.77% SIDEWAYS 6h
12 Jan 2026 11:00 14 Jan 2026 01:00 $2.58 $2.72 +4.94% SIDEWAYS 1.6d
14 Jan 2026 08:00 14 Jan 2026 10:00 $2.72 $2.75 +0.85% SIDEWAYS 3h
16 Jan 2026 01:00 16 Jan 2026 11:00 $2.55 $2.60 +1.87% SIDEWAYS 11h
16 Jan 2026 16:00 16 Jan 2026 21:00 $2.55 $2.59 +1.16% SIDEWAYS 6h
19 Jan 2026 00:00 20 Jan 2026 01:00 $2.36 $2.43 +2.68% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
21 Jan 2026 01:00 21 Jan 2026 09:00 $2.35 $2.38 +0.69% SIDEWAYS 9h
21 Jan 2026 17:00 21 Jan 2026 20:00 $2.30 $2.36 +2.41% SIDEWAYS 4h
23 Jan 2026 01:00 25 Jan 2026 00:00 $2.30 $2.37 +2.36% SIDEWAYS 2d
25 Jan 2026 09:00 25 Jan 2026 14:00 $2.29 $2.29 -0.40% SIDEWAYS 6h
25 Jan 2026 20:00 26 Jan 2026 06:00 $2.18 $2.36 +7.83% SIDEWAYS 11h
26 Jan 2026 08:00 26 Jan 2026 22:00 $2.29 $2.33 +1.48% SIDEWAYS 15h
27 Jan 2026 10:00 27 Jan 2026 21:00 $2.27 $2.32 +2.08% SIDEWAYS 12h
30 Jan 2026 01:00 30 Jan 2026 18:00 $2.13 $2.17 +1.20% SIDEWAYS 18h
30 Jan 2026 20:00 31 Jan 2026 01:00 $2.14 $2.12 -0.76% SIDEWAYS 6h
01 Feb 2026 02:00 01 Feb 2026 09:00 $1.86 $1.90 +1.63% BEAR 8h
02 Feb 2026 04:00 02 Feb 2026 15:00 $1.79 $1.86 +3.94% BEAR 12h
03 Feb 2026 18:00 03 Feb 2026 22:00 $1.74 $1.78 +1.88% BEAR 5h
06 Feb 2026 01:00 06 Feb 2026 22:00 $1.46 $1.61 +9.80% BEAR 22h
09 Feb 2026 09:00 09 Feb 2026 18:00 $1.47 $1.52 +3.22% BEAR 10h
11 Feb 2026 11:00 12 Feb 2026 09:00 $1.43 $1.53 +6.94% BEAR 23h
13 Feb 2026 04:00 14 Feb 2026 04:00 $1.46 $1.49 +1.53% BEAR 1d
14 Feb 2026 06:00 14 Feb 2026 18:00 $1.47 $1.53 +4.10% BEAR 13h
16 Feb 2026 16:00 17 Feb 2026 02:00 $1.46 $1.48 +1.44% BEAR 11h
18 Feb 2026 22:00 21 Feb 2026 02:00 $1.38 $1.41 +1.75% BEAR 2.2d
24 Feb 2026 06:00 24 Feb 2026 21:00 $1.23 $1.26 +1.72% BEAR 16h
25 Feb 2026 00:00 25 Feb 2026 19:00 $1.25 $1.36 +8.21% BEAR 20h
26 Feb 2026 14:00 27 Feb 2026 08:00 $1.26 $1.33 +4.83% BEAR 19h
01 Mar 2026 20:00 02 Mar 2026 15:00 $1.19 $1.25 +4.62% BEAR 20h
03 Mar 2026 05:00 03 Mar 2026 21:00 $1.22 $1.32 +8.53% BEAR 17h
04 Mar 2026 00:00 04 Mar 2026 15:00 $1.30 $1.33 +1.73% BEAR 16h
07 Mar 2026 05:00 07 Mar 2026 18:00 $1.26 $1.37 +8.20% BEAR 14h
07 Mar 2026 20:00 08 Mar 2026 01:00 $1.34 $1.33 -0.53% BEAR 6h
08 Mar 2026 17:00 09 Mar 2026 05:00 $1.20 $1.28 +6.41% BEAR 13h
10 Mar 2026 23:00 12 Mar 2026 05:00 $1.22 $1.25 +1.49% BEAR 1.3d
12 Mar 2026 07:00 13 Mar 2026 09:00 $1.24 $1.27 +2.08% BEAR 1.1d
15 Mar 2026 02:00 16 Mar 2026 08:00 $1.30 $1.35 +3.11% BEAR 1.3d
22 Mar 2026 00:00 22 Mar 2026 09:00 $1.13 $1.16 +1.79% BEAR 10h
22 Mar 2026 12:00 22 Mar 2026 14:00 $1.14 $1.15 +1.08% BEAR 3h
23 Mar 2026 01:00 23 Mar 2026 08:00 $1.13 $1.10 -3.11% BEAR 8h
23 Mar 2026 10:00 23 Mar 2026 21:00 $1.11 $1.13 +1.59% BEAR 12h
28 Mar 2026 03:00 28 Mar 2026 09:00 $1.02 $1.03 +0.18% BEAR 7h
29 Mar 2026 11:00 29 Mar 2026 16:00 $1.02 $1.02 -0.60% BEAR 6h
29 Mar 2026 23:00 30 Mar 2026 12:00 $1.00 $1.11 +10.31% BEAR 14h
30 Mar 2026 20:00 31 Mar 2026 16:00 $1.05 $1.29 +22.44% BEAR 21h
31 Mar 2026 22:00 01 Apr 2026 14:00 $1.27 $1.30 +2.18% BEAR 17h
02 Apr 2026 22:00 04 Apr 2026 01:00 $1.19 $1.23 +3.28% BEAR 1.2d
05 Apr 2026 16:00 06 Apr 2026 09:00 $1.16 $1.20 +3.38% BEAR 18h
07 Apr 2026 02:00 07 Apr 2026 06:00 $1.14 $1.15 +0.39% BEAR 5h
07 Apr 2026 09:00 07 Apr 2026 12:00 $1.15 $1.13 -2.29% BEAR 4h
07 Apr 2026 14:00 08 Apr 2026 15:00 $1.12 $1.23 +9.23% BEAR 1.1d
09 Apr 2026 00:00 09 Apr 2026 10:00 $1.18 $1.26 +6.02% BEAR 11h
09 Apr 2026 12:00 09 Apr 2026 16:00 $1.23 $1.22 -1.20% BEAR 5h
11 Apr 2026 01:00 11 Apr 2026 21:00 $1.18 $1.23 +3.82% BEAR 21h
13 Apr 2026 01:00 14 Apr 2026 23:00 $1.17 $1.19 +1.05% BEAR 2d
15 Apr 2026 01:00 16 Apr 2026 11:00 $1.19 $1.31 +9.53% BEAR 1.5d
16 Apr 2026 15:00 16 Apr 2026 16:00 $1.39 $1.40 -0.12% SIDEWAYS 2h
16 Apr 2026 18:00 16 Apr 2026 20:00 $1.39 $1.42 +1.45% SIDEWAYS 3h
16 Apr 2026 23:00 17 Apr 2026 06:00 $1.44 $3.23 +123.77% SIDEWAYS 8h
17 Apr 2026 09:00 17 Apr 2026 13:00 $2.97 $4.16 +39.77% SIDEWAYS 5h
17 Apr 2026 16:00 17 Apr 2026 18:00 $3.64 $3.21 -12.18% SIDEWAYS 3h
17 Apr 2026 21:00 18 Apr 2026 01:00 $3.01 $2.71 -10.26% SIDEWAYS 5h
18 Apr 2026 05:00 18 Apr 2026 07:00 $2.49 $2.41 -3.33% SIDEWAYS 3h
18 Apr 2026 11:00 18 Apr 2026 15:00 $2.34 $2.32 -1.23% SIDEWAYS 5h
18 Apr 2026 19:00 18 Apr 2026 20:00 $2.21 $2.26 +2.23% SIDEWAYS 2h
19 Apr 2026 05:00 19 Apr 2026 07:00 $1.86 $1.96 +5.05% SIDEWAYS 3h
19 Apr 2026 13:00 20 Apr 2026 01:00 $1.92 $2.01 +4.27% SIDEWAYS 13h
20 Apr 2026 03:00 20 Apr 2026 04:00 $1.87 $2.01 +6.90% SIDEWAYS 2h
20 Apr 2026 08:00 20 Apr 2026 21:00 $1.89 $1.96 +3.62% SIDEWAYS 14h
20 Apr 2026 23:00 21 Apr 2026 00:00 $1.96 $1.99 +1.39% SIDEWAYS 2h
22 Apr 2026 21:00 23 Apr 2026 14:00 $1.71 $3.13 +82.85% SIDEWAYS 18h
23 Apr 2026 16:00 23 Apr 2026 17:00 $3.05 $2.97 -2.84% SIDEWAYS 2h
23 Apr 2026 19:00 23 Apr 2026 23:00 $2.72 $2.63 -3.50% SIDEWAYS 5h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live MOVR signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Moonriver Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time MOVR signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → MOVR Signals → View Plans →
80.5% Win Rate +2,580.2% Return -24.8% Max Drawdown Net of Fees