MOVRMOVRMoonriver$1.2780-1.24%
24h High$1.31
24h Low$1.24
Volume$438,344
Updated18:03 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / MOVR / MOVR — H2 2024 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

MOVR Moonriver Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for MOVR - Moonriver. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the H2-2024 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 138 trades would have compounded to a final value of $1,836,171 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros 138 Trades Completed
Walk-forward validated Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Moonriver (MOVR) is the Kusama-based canary network of Moonbeam, providing an EVM-compatible smart-contract platform within the Polkadot/Kusama ecosystem. Listed since mid-2021 with multi-cycle history. Price tends to track Polkadot/Kusama parachain narratives and EVM-compatibility catalysts.

MOVR — H2 2024 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Moonriver (MOVR) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Sharpe
12.87
Alpha vs B&H
+18,225.34pp
Risk / Reward
99+×
B&H Return
+36.37%
Max Drawdown
-13.11%
Avg Drawdown
-4.80%
Sharpe Trend
+0.69
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest

Day-by-day — MOVR — H2 2024 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for MOVR over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
Entry Profit exit Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 138-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+5.47%
Avg Loss
-1.78%
Best Trade
+35.52%
Worst Trade
-13.08%
Avg Bars Held
16.1h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Signal flip: 62 (45%) Forward-pred: 60 (43%) Short signal: 5 (4%) Trailing stop: 4 (3%) Stop-loss: 4 (3%) Take-profit: 3 (2%)
Smart Insights
  • Exceptional return: +18,261.7% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • High win rate: 85.5% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • Robust sample: 138 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • Strongest regime: BULL — avg +9.68% on 13 trades, WR 92%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 71 87.3% +3.59% +1,054.90% 11h
SIDEWAYS 54 81.5% +4.23% +769.40% 22h
BULL 13 92.3% +9.68% +211.93% 20h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 138 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
07 Jul 2024 21:00 08 Jul 2024 08:00 $8.99 $9.44 +4.57% SIDEWAYS 12h
08 Jul 2024 10:00 08 Jul 2024 14:00 $9.47 $9.17 -3.59% SIDEWAYS 5h
08 Jul 2024 16:00 10 Jul 2024 05:00 $9.09 $9.48 +3.97% SIDEWAYS 1.6d
12 Jul 2024 08:00 14 Jul 2024 22:00 $9.24 $10.09 +8.97% SIDEWAYS 2.6d
15 Jul 2024 00:00 15 Jul 2024 02:00 $10.12 $10.34 +1.88% SIDEWAYS 3h
15 Jul 2024 07:00 17 Jul 2024 13:00 $10.83 $11.56 +6.50% SIDEWAYS 2.3d
18 Jul 2024 21:00 20 Jul 2024 14:00 $10.83 $11.80 +8.82% BULL 1.8d
21 Jul 2024 05:00 22 Jul 2024 00:00 $11.48 $12.19 +5.69% BULL 20h
23 Jul 2024 16:00 24 Jul 2024 09:00 $10.87 $11.26 +3.22% BUBBLE 18h
25 Jul 2024 13:00 26 Jul 2024 22:00 $10.19 $11.04 +8.11% BULL 1.4d
27 Jul 2024 17:00 27 Jul 2024 23:00 $10.79 $10.89 +0.79% BULL 7h
28 Jul 2024 21:00 29 Jul 2024 13:00 $10.47 $10.92 +4.11% BULL 17h
31 Jul 2024 05:00 31 Jul 2024 08:00 $9.91 $10.14 +2.13% BUBBLE 4h
31 Jul 2024 11:00 31 Jul 2024 13:00 $10.08 $10.30 +2.02% BUBBLE 3h
01 Aug 2024 05:00 02 Aug 2024 02:00 $9.46 $9.32 -1.63% BUBBLE 22h
03 Aug 2024 01:00 03 Aug 2024 08:00 $8.48 $8.87 +4.43% BULL 8h
04 Aug 2024 02:00 04 Aug 2024 09:00 $8.36 $8.38 -0.11% SIDEWAYS 8h
04 Aug 2024 17:00 04 Aug 2024 19:00 $7.68 $8.13 +5.56% SIDEWAYS 3h
05 Aug 2024 02:00 05 Aug 2024 04:00 $6.85 $6.91 +0.61% SIDEWAYS 3h
05 Aug 2024 07:00 06 Aug 2024 18:00 $6.64 $7.74 +16.42% SIDEWAYS 1.5d
06 Aug 2024 20:00 07 Aug 2024 01:00 $7.70 $7.89 +2.15% SIDEWAYS 6h
07 Aug 2024 19:00 08 Aug 2024 22:00 $7.36 $8.26 +11.99% SIDEWAYS 1.2d
09 Aug 2024 00:00 09 Aug 2024 02:00 $8.29 $8.19 -1.37% SIDEWAYS 3h
09 Aug 2024 13:00 11 Aug 2024 04:00 $8.03 $8.35 +3.78% SIDEWAYS 1.7d
11 Aug 2024 21:00 13 Aug 2024 02:00 $7.75 $8.32 +7.15% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
13 Aug 2024 11:00 13 Aug 2024 17:00 $8.09 $8.58 +5.81% SIDEWAYS 7h
14 Aug 2024 14:00 14 Aug 2024 16:00 $8.08 $8.20 +1.36% SIDEWAYS 3h
15 Aug 2024 19:00 17 Aug 2024 11:00 $7.72 $7.88 +1.79% SIDEWAYS 1.7d
18 Aug 2024 11:00 18 Aug 2024 12:00 $8.22 $8.30 +0.55% SIDEWAYS 2h
18 Aug 2024 14:00 18 Aug 2024 17:00 $8.26 $8.16 -1.60% SIDEWAYS 4h
19 Aug 2024 01:00 21 Aug 2024 21:00 $7.97 $10.75 +34.43% SIDEWAYS 2.9d
22 Aug 2024 04:00 22 Aug 2024 19:00 $10.35 $10.77 +3.84% SIDEWAYS 16h
22 Aug 2024 23:00 23 Aug 2024 12:00 $10.78 $11.33 +4.83% SIDEWAYS 14h
23 Aug 2024 15:00 24 Aug 2024 12:00 $10.91 $11.82 +8.14% SIDEWAYS 22h
24 Aug 2024 22:00 25 Aug 2024 00:00 $10.95 $10.87 -0.93% SIDEWAYS 3h
27 Aug 2024 22:00 28 Aug 2024 18:00 $9.11 $9.60 +5.21% SIDEWAYS 21h
30 Aug 2024 04:00 30 Aug 2024 09:00 $9.25 $9.39 +1.36% SIDEWAYS 6h
30 Aug 2024 12:00 30 Aug 2024 15:00 $9.19 $8.87 -3.76% SIDEWAYS 4h
30 Aug 2024 17:00 31 Aug 2024 00:00 $9.05 $9.30 +2.63% SIDEWAYS 8h
01 Sep 2024 23:00 03 Sep 2024 01:00 $8.63 $9.32 +7.51% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
03 Sep 2024 17:00 03 Sep 2024 19:00 $8.99 $9.17 +1.61% SIDEWAYS 3h
04 Sep 2024 00:00 04 Sep 2024 21:00 $9.04 $9.22 +1.76% SIDEWAYS 22h
05 Sep 2024 20:00 06 Sep 2024 12:00 $8.65 $9.03 +4.13% SIDEWAYS 17h
06 Sep 2024 21:00 07 Sep 2024 17:00 $8.31 $8.58 +3.02% SIDEWAYS 21h
07 Sep 2024 19:00 11 Sep 2024 01:00 $8.62 $9.15 +5.97% SIDEWAYS 3.3d
11 Sep 2024 06:00 14 Sep 2024 00:00 $9.03 $9.72 +7.37% SIDEWAYS 2.8d
16 Sep 2024 02:00 16 Sep 2024 06:00 $9.30 $9.39 +0.62% SIDEWAYS 5h
16 Sep 2024 13:00 18 Sep 2024 04:00 $9.19 $9.73 +5.54% SIDEWAYS 1.7d
18 Sep 2024 06:00 18 Sep 2024 08:00 $9.62 $9.61 -0.38% SIDEWAYS 3h
18 Sep 2024 12:00 20 Sep 2024 03:00 $9.47 $10.45 +10.10% SIDEWAYS 1.7d
20 Sep 2024 05:00 20 Sep 2024 08:00 $10.52 $10.58 +0.43% SIDEWAYS 4h
20 Sep 2024 17:00 20 Sep 2024 21:00 $10.39 $10.64 +2.20% SIDEWAYS 5h
22 Sep 2024 10:00 23 Sep 2024 12:00 $10.02 $10.36 +3.22% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
23 Sep 2024 14:00 25 Sep 2024 00:00 $10.50 $11.03 +4.86% SIDEWAYS 1.5d
25 Sep 2024 23:00 27 Sep 2024 22:00 $10.48 $11.45 +9.08% SIDEWAYS 2d
29 Sep 2024 02:00 29 Sep 2024 19:00 $11.20 $11.52 +2.41% BULL 18h
30 Sep 2024 23:00 01 Oct 2024 09:00 $10.67 $11.01 +2.85% BULL 11h
01 Oct 2024 22:00 02 Oct 2024 06:00 $9.44 $9.92 +4.86% BULL 9h
03 Oct 2024 09:00 04 Oct 2024 16:00 $8.88 $9.62 +8.18% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
04 Oct 2024 18:00 04 Oct 2024 20:00 $9.65 $9.65 -0.16% SIDEWAYS 3h
05 Oct 2024 17:00 07 Oct 2024 00:00 $9.37 $9.89 +5.44% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
09 Oct 2024 05:00 09 Oct 2024 07:00 $9.32 $9.32 -0.23% SIDEWAYS 3h
10 Oct 2024 00:00 12 Oct 2024 05:00 $8.90 $9.41 +5.57% SIDEWAYS 2.3d
13 Oct 2024 02:00 13 Oct 2024 06:00 $9.28 $9.28 -0.40% SIDEWAYS 5h
13 Oct 2024 09:00 14 Oct 2024 21:00 $9.28 $9.86 +5.94% SIDEWAYS 1.5d
15 Oct 2024 11:00 15 Oct 2024 13:00 $9.60 $9.96 +3.44% SIDEWAYS 3h
15 Oct 2024 15:00 16 Oct 2024 01:00 $9.53 $9.67 +1.23% SIDEWAYS 11h
17 Oct 2024 12:00 19 Oct 2024 09:00 $9.13 $9.56 +4.51% SIDEWAYS 1.9d
19 Oct 2024 11:00 20 Oct 2024 08:00 $9.50 $10.52 +10.51% BUBBLE 22h
22 Oct 2024 17:00 22 Oct 2024 19:00 $10.01 $10.22 +1.93% BUBBLE 3h
23 Oct 2024 17:00 24 Oct 2024 13:00 $9.72 $10.29 +5.61% BUBBLE 21h
24 Oct 2024 15:00 24 Oct 2024 17:00 $10.24 $10.11 -1.46% BUBBLE 3h
27 Oct 2024 02:00 27 Oct 2024 10:00 $9.32 $9.20 -1.76% BUBBLE 9h
27 Oct 2024 12:00 28 Oct 2024 09:00 $9.17 $9.70 +5.50% BUBBLE 22h
28 Oct 2024 16:00 29 Oct 2024 16:00 $9.43 $10.16 +7.45% BUBBLE 1d
29 Oct 2024 20:00 29 Oct 2024 22:00 $9.91 $9.97 +0.46% BUBBLE 3h
01 Nov 2024 07:00 01 Nov 2024 13:00 $9.11 $9.59 +5.01% BUBBLE 7h
01 Nov 2024 19:00 02 Nov 2024 01:00 $9.25 $9.35 +0.86% BUBBLE 7h
03 Nov 2024 14:00 04 Nov 2024 02:00 $8.40 $8.59 +2.08% BUBBLE 13h
04 Nov 2024 21:00 07 Nov 2024 02:00 $8.18 $9.85 +20.32% BUBBLE 2.3d
07 Nov 2024 15:00 08 Nov 2024 00:00 $9.54 $9.82 +2.82% BULL 10h
08 Nov 2024 15:00 08 Nov 2024 22:00 $9.59 $13.02 +35.52% BULL 8h
10 Nov 2024 10:00 10 Nov 2024 11:00 $11.98 $12.36 +2.75% BUBBLE 2h
10 Nov 2024 21:00 11 Nov 2024 02:00 $11.23 $12.38 +9.92% BUBBLE 6h
12 Nov 2024 00:00 12 Nov 2024 02:00 $12.19 $12.41 +1.48% BUBBLE 3h
12 Nov 2024 11:00 12 Nov 2024 13:00 $11.37 $11.29 -0.88% BUBBLE 3h
12 Nov 2024 16:00 12 Nov 2024 19:00 $10.85 $11.33 +4.27% BUBBLE 4h
13 Nov 2024 07:00 13 Nov 2024 14:00 $10.51 $11.06 +5.00% BUBBLE 8h
13 Nov 2024 16:00 13 Nov 2024 17:00 $11.04 $11.11 +0.48% BUBBLE 2h
13 Nov 2024 20:00 14 Nov 2024 02:00 $10.67 $10.88 +1.83% BUBBLE 7h
15 Nov 2024 00:00 16 Nov 2024 14:00 $10.33 $11.40 +10.26% BUBBLE 1.6d
16 Nov 2024 16:00 16 Nov 2024 19:00 $11.13 $11.44 +2.55% BUBBLE 4h
17 Nov 2024 02:00 17 Nov 2024 08:00 $10.84 $11.85 +9.13% BUBBLE 7h
17 Nov 2024 21:00 18 Nov 2024 21:00 $11.37 $12.45 +9.34% BUBBLE 1d
20 Nov 2024 20:00 20 Nov 2024 22:00 $11.21 $11.36 +1.22% BUBBLE 3h
21 Nov 2024 01:00 22 Nov 2024 03:00 $11.35 $12.19 +7.30% BUBBLE 1.1d
22 Nov 2024 14:00 23 Nov 2024 12:00 $11.74 $15.39 +30.85% BUBBLE 23h
24 Nov 2024 11:00 24 Nov 2024 20:00 $15.78 $16.12 +1.74% BUBBLE 10h
24 Nov 2024 22:00 24 Nov 2024 23:00 $16.25 $16.81 +3.16% BUBBLE 2h
25 Nov 2024 02:00 25 Nov 2024 05:00 $16.44 $17.14 +4.04% BUBBLE 4h
25 Nov 2024 13:00 25 Nov 2024 21:00 $16.65 $16.55 -0.74% BUBBLE 9h
26 Nov 2024 00:00 26 Nov 2024 02:00 $16.43 $16.70 +1.49% BUBBLE 3h
26 Nov 2024 11:00 27 Nov 2024 15:00 $15.65 $16.62 +6.05% BUBBLE 1.2d
28 Nov 2024 14:00 29 Nov 2024 15:00 $16.18 $16.84 +3.93% BUBBLE 1.1d
30 Nov 2024 06:00 30 Nov 2024 18:00 $17.02 $17.18 +0.81% BUBBLE 13h
01 Dec 2024 03:00 01 Dec 2024 07:00 $16.59 $16.79 +1.10% BUBBLE 5h
01 Dec 2024 21:00 02 Dec 2024 01:00 $16.87 $17.15 +1.49% BUBBLE 5h
02 Dec 2024 08:00 03 Dec 2024 04:00 $16.35 $17.92 +9.51% BUBBLE 21h
03 Dec 2024 06:00 03 Dec 2024 11:00 $18.00 $19.41 +7.70% BUBBLE 6h
03 Dec 2024 13:00 04 Dec 2024 03:00 $19.40 $19.84 +2.13% BUBBLE 15h
04 Dec 2024 07:00 04 Dec 2024 09:00 $19.42 $20.24 +4.07% BUBBLE 3h
04 Dec 2024 17:00 04 Dec 2024 19:00 $19.28 $20.03 +3.78% BUBBLE 3h
05 Dec 2024 02:00 05 Dec 2024 04:00 $18.96 $19.44 +2.43% BUBBLE 3h
05 Dec 2024 15:00 06 Dec 2024 16:00 $19.06 $20.30 +6.43% BUBBLE 1.1d
08 Dec 2024 02:00 08 Dec 2024 04:00 $19.07 $18.83 -1.76% BUBBLE 3h
08 Dec 2024 06:00 08 Dec 2024 22:00 $18.88 $19.69 +4.05% BUBBLE 17h
09 Dec 2024 21:00 10 Dec 2024 00:00 $15.11 $15.66 +3.46% BUBBLE 4h
10 Dec 2024 03:00 10 Dec 2024 06:00 $14.63 $15.80 +7.80% BUBBLE 4h
10 Dec 2024 13:00 12 Dec 2024 13:00 $15.05 $17.26 +14.48% BUBBLE 2d
14 Dec 2024 21:00 14 Dec 2024 23:00 $15.82 $16.02 +1.14% BUBBLE 3h
15 Dec 2024 01:00 15 Dec 2024 14:00 $15.94 $16.60 +4.01% BUBBLE 14h
15 Dec 2024 16:00 16 Dec 2024 00:00 $16.37 $16.78 +2.38% BUBBLE 9h
16 Dec 2024 11:00 16 Dec 2024 18:00 $15.45 $16.08 +3.89% BUBBLE 8h
19 Dec 2024 02:00 19 Dec 2024 04:00 $12.57 $13.34 +5.90% BUBBLE 3h
19 Dec 2024 21:00 19 Dec 2024 23:00 $12.17 $12.18 -0.08% BUBBLE 3h
20 Dec 2024 07:00 20 Dec 2024 11:00 $12.38 $10.78 -13.08% BUBBLE 5h
20 Dec 2024 13:00 21 Dec 2024 07:00 $11.22 $13.37 +19.04% BUBBLE 19h
21 Dec 2024 09:00 21 Dec 2024 15:00 $13.05 $13.22 +1.21% BUBBLE 7h
23 Dec 2024 13:00 24 Dec 2024 13:00 $12.78 $14.09 +9.78% BUBBLE 1d
24 Dec 2024 19:00 25 Dec 2024 02:00 $14.25 $14.60 +2.24% BUBBLE 8h
25 Dec 2024 04:00 25 Dec 2024 06:00 $14.52 $14.59 +0.23% BUBBLE 3h
25 Dec 2024 08:00 25 Dec 2024 09:00 $14.56 $15.16 +3.87% BUBBLE 2h
25 Dec 2024 17:00 25 Dec 2024 19:00 $14.24 $14.48 +1.53% BUBBLE 3h
26 Dec 2024 21:00 27 Dec 2024 09:00 $13.08 $14.05 +7.26% BUBBLE 13h
27 Dec 2024 11:00 27 Dec 2024 13:00 $13.93 $13.73 -1.59% BUBBLE 3h
27 Dec 2024 16:00 27 Dec 2024 18:00 $13.38 $13.67 +2.00% BUBBLE 3h
28 Dec 2024 14:00 29 Dec 2024 01:00 $14.23 $14.23 -0.17% BUBBLE 12h
30 Dec 2024 13:00 30 Dec 2024 19:00 $12.63 $12.87 +1.70% BUBBLE 7h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live MOVR signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Moonriver Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time MOVR signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

85.5% Win Rate +18,261.7% Return -13.1% Max Drawdown Net of Fees