XLMXLMStellar$0.215300-3.24%
24h High$0.22
24h Low$0.21
Volume$17.2M
Updated15:48 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / XLM / XLM — Q4 2025 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

XLM Stellar Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for XLM - Stellar. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the Q4-2025 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 60 trades would have compounded to a final value of $45,495 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros • 60 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Stellar (XLM) is an open-source network for cross-border payments and asset tokenization, originally forked from Ripple. With partnerships including MoneyGram and various central banks exploring CBDCs, XLM price responds to payments industry developments. Its lower volatility compared to other altcoins provides steadier trading patterns with reliable mean-reversion characteristics.

Performance Price & Trades Trade Stats Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ XLM Signals →

XLM — Q4 2025 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Stellar (XLM) — compounded across 3 months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Quarterly Return
+355.0%
$10,000 →
$45,495
Win Rate
86.7%
52W / 8L
Trades
60
Sharpe
13.65
Alpha vs B&H
+403.15pp
Risk / Reward
99+×
B&H Return
-48.19%
Max Drawdown
-2.46%
Avg Drawdown
-2.66%
Sharpe Trend
+5.78
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest
View →

Day-by-day — XLM — Q4 2025 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for XLM over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 60-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+3.32%
Avg Loss
-1.92%
Best Trade
+12.12%
Worst Trade
-4.89%
Avg Bars Held
14.3h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Forward-pred: 36 (60%) Signal flip: 15 (25%) Short signal: 4 (7%) Stop-loss: 2 (3%) Trailing stop: 2 (3%) Take-profit: 1 (2%)
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +355.0% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 86.7% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -2.5%.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 60 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: SIDEWAYS — avg +2.83% on 37 trades, WR 95%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 37 94.6% +2.83% +175.63% 13h
BEAR 16 75.0% +2.58% +48.68% 17h
BULL 3 66.7% +2.19% +6.46% 12h
BUBBLE 4 75.0% +1.18% +4.71% 14h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 60 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
05 Oct 2025 02:00 05 Oct 2025 07:00 $0.39 $0.41 +3.37% BUBBLE 6h
05 Oct 2025 09:00 05 Oct 2025 14:00 $0.41 $0.40 -2.48% BUBBLE 6h
05 Oct 2025 16:00 06 Oct 2025 22:00 $0.40 $0.41 +2.25% BUBBLE 1.3d
08 Oct 2025 04:00 08 Oct 2025 17:00 $0.38 $0.39 +1.59% BUBBLE 14h
08 Oct 2025 19:00 09 Oct 2025 02:00 $0.39 $0.38 -2.46% BUBBLE 8h
09 Oct 2025 17:00 10 Oct 2025 10:00 $0.38 $0.38 +1.69% BULL 18h
10 Oct 2025 23:00 11 Oct 2025 08:00 $0.31 $0.34 +7.33% BULL 10h
11 Oct 2025 21:00 13 Oct 2025 08:00 $0.31 $0.35 +12.12% BULL 1.5d
13 Oct 2025 10:00 13 Oct 2025 17:00 $0.35 $0.35 +0.31% SIDEWAYS 8h
14 Oct 2025 07:00 15 Oct 2025 05:00 $0.33 $0.34 +2.29% SIDEWAYS 23h
19 Oct 2025 02:00 20 Oct 2025 09:00 $0.31 $0.33 +4.17% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
21 Oct 2025 09:00 21 Oct 2025 15:00 $0.31 $0.33 +4.63% SIDEWAYS 7h
22 Oct 2025 22:00 23 Oct 2025 17:00 $0.30 $0.32 +3.32% SIDEWAYS 20h
24 Oct 2025 05:00 24 Oct 2025 13:00 $0.32 $0.32 +1.64% SIDEWAYS 9h
24 Oct 2025 15:00 25 Oct 2025 14:00 $0.32 $0.33 +3.49% SIDEWAYS 24h
25 Oct 2025 16:00 25 Oct 2025 19:00 $0.33 $0.33 -0.83% SIDEWAYS 4h
26 Oct 2025 00:00 26 Oct 2025 22:00 $0.33 $0.33 +1.49% SIDEWAYS 23h
27 Oct 2025 00:00 27 Oct 2025 01:00 $0.33 $0.33 +0.28% SIDEWAYS 2h
28 Oct 2025 00:00 28 Oct 2025 06:00 $0.32 $0.34 +3.69% SIDEWAYS 7h
29 Oct 2025 04:00 29 Oct 2025 07:00 $0.32 $0.32 +0.75% SIDEWAYS 4h
30 Oct 2025 20:00 31 Oct 2025 13:00 $0.29 $0.31 +4.90% SIDEWAYS 18h
31 Oct 2025 17:00 31 Oct 2025 20:00 $0.30 $0.30 +0.32% SIDEWAYS 4h
04 Nov 2025 20:00 05 Nov 2025 15:00 $0.26 $0.28 +7.44% SIDEWAYS 20h
05 Nov 2025 17:00 05 Nov 2025 22:00 $0.28 $0.28 +0.99% SIDEWAYS 6h
06 Nov 2025 16:00 08 Nov 2025 01:00 $0.27 $0.29 +9.48% SIDEWAYS 1.4d
09 Nov 2025 03:00 10 Nov 2025 09:00 $0.28 $0.31 +11.87% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
10 Nov 2025 11:00 10 Nov 2025 13:00 $0.31 $0.31 -0.86% SIDEWAYS 3h
11 Nov 2025 21:00 12 Nov 2025 10:00 $0.28 $0.29 +2.62% SIDEWAYS 14h
12 Nov 2025 19:00 12 Nov 2025 23:00 $0.28 $0.28 +0.50% SIDEWAYS 5h
13 Nov 2025 01:00 13 Nov 2025 08:00 $0.28 $0.29 +3.72% SIDEWAYS 8h
17 Nov 2025 20:00 18 Nov 2025 19:00 $0.25 $0.26 +5.40% BEAR 24h
19 Nov 2025 16:00 20 Nov 2025 11:00 $0.24 $0.25 +4.25% BEAR 20h
21 Nov 2025 10:00 22 Nov 2025 12:00 $0.22 $0.23 +1.73% BEAR 1.1d
22 Nov 2025 14:00 23 Nov 2025 21:00 $0.23 $0.25 +10.00% BEAR 1.3d
24 Nov 2025 02:00 24 Nov 2025 06:00 $0.25 $0.25 -1.20% BEAR 5h
24 Nov 2025 10:00 24 Nov 2025 18:00 $0.24 $0.26 +4.85% BEAR 9h
25 Nov 2025 14:00 26 Nov 2025 08:00 $0.25 $0.25 +2.90% BEAR 19h
26 Nov 2025 19:00 27 Nov 2025 01:00 $0.26 $0.26 -1.10% BEAR 7h
27 Nov 2025 13:00 28 Nov 2025 08:00 $0.25 $0.26 +3.71% BEAR 20h
29 Nov 2025 04:00 29 Nov 2025 11:00 $0.25 $0.26 +1.18% SIDEWAYS 8h
01 Dec 2025 13:00 02 Dec 2025 19:00 $0.23 $0.25 +9.52% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
02 Dec 2025 21:00 03 Dec 2025 05:00 $0.26 $0.26 +0.40% SIDEWAYS 9h
04 Dec 2025 15:00 04 Dec 2025 17:00 $0.25 $0.25 +0.07% SIDEWAYS 3h
06 Dec 2025 09:00 06 Dec 2025 11:00 $0.24 $0.24 +0.09% SIDEWAYS 3h
07 Dec 2025 15:00 07 Dec 2025 17:00 $0.24 $0.24 +2.85% SIDEWAYS 3h
07 Dec 2025 19:00 08 Dec 2025 13:00 $0.24 $0.25 +0.41% SIDEWAYS 19h
08 Dec 2025 16:00 10 Dec 2025 01:00 $0.24 $0.25 +2.94% SIDEWAYS 1.4d
11 Dec 2025 04:00 11 Dec 2025 09:00 $0.24 $0.24 +0.83% SIDEWAYS 6h
11 Dec 2025 15:00 11 Dec 2025 21:00 $0.24 $0.25 +1.69% SIDEWAYS 7h
16 Dec 2025 09:00 16 Dec 2025 11:00 $0.22 $0.22 +2.06% SIDEWAYS 3h
18 Dec 2025 06:00 18 Dec 2025 13:00 $0.21 $0.22 +3.74% BEAR 8h
18 Dec 2025 15:00 18 Dec 2025 19:00 $0.21 $0.20 -4.89% BEAR 5h
18 Dec 2025 21:00 20 Dec 2025 08:00 $0.21 $0.22 +7.99% BEAR 1.5d
20 Dec 2025 12:00 21 Dec 2025 11:00 $0.22 $0.22 -1.50% BEAR 24h
21 Dec 2025 14:00 22 Dec 2025 12:00 $0.21 $0.22 +4.21% BEAR 23h
23 Dec 2025 09:00 23 Dec 2025 12:00 $0.22 $0.22 +0.33% BEAR 4h
23 Dec 2025 15:00 23 Dec 2025 20:00 $0.22 $0.22 +0.79% BEAR 6h
25 Dec 2025 23:00 26 Dec 2025 13:00 $0.21 $0.22 +2.48% SIDEWAYS 15h
28 Dec 2025 02:00 28 Dec 2025 11:00 $0.22 $0.22 +0.35% SIDEWAYS 10h
28 Dec 2025 21:00 29 Dec 2025 01:00 $0.22 $0.22 +1.46% SIDEWAYS 5h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live XLM signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Stellar Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time XLM signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → XLM Signals → View Plans →
86.7% Win Rate +355.0% Return -2.5% Max Drawdown Net of Fees