TIATIACelestia$0.376500-3.31%
24h High$0.39
24h Low$0.37
Volume$3.0M
Updated15:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / TIA
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

TIA Celestia (TIA) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for TIA - Celestia. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Apr 2024 → May 2026 across 1 walk-forward cycle (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 710 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $24,692. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 1 Walk-Forward Cycle • Apr 2024 – May 2026 • $0.376500 (-3.31%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Celestia (TIA) introduced the modular blockchain narrative — separating data availability from execution and settlement. Used by leading rollups and sovereign chains. Listed late-2023 with growing history; price reactive to L2 + modular-thesis narrative cycles.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Trade Log All Backtests View TIA Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
2.08
Sortino Ratio
1.59
Profit Factor
1.53
Calmar Ratio
5.77
Win Rate
46.9%
Max Drawdown
-9.4%
Avg Drawdown
-9.44%
Alpha vs B&H
+9,791.7pp
Total Trades
710
Exposure
19.1%
Beats B&H
1/1
Cycles
1
TIA

TIA Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
+1.0%
9t
+13.5%
23t
-1.3%
35t
+12.0%
23t
+61.9%
37t
+22.3%
28t
+34.9%
48t
+9.8%
22t
+11.1%
31t
 +312.7%
2025
+8.9%
26t
+17.2%
15t
-0.4%
35t
+30.6%
32t
-6.4%
45t
+2.8%
66t
+17.2%
19t
+5.7%
29t
-9.9%
29t
+9.9%
8t
-1.6%
19t
+1.2%
38t
 +95.4%
2026
-6.9%
22t
+17.6%
24t
-1.3%
26t
-5.7%
14t
-1.3%
7t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +0.6%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +146.9% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 710 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +3.52% on 13 trades, WR 92%.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: NEUTRAL — avg -0.21% on 12 trades, WR 25%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for TIA over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 1 0.0% -0.60% 0.00 4.0
BULL 13 92.3% +3.52% 35.38 12.4
BEAR 327 57.8% +0.61% 2.69 4.6

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Feb 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
-3.4%
Win Rate
48.0%
24W / 26L
Max Drawdown
-5.9%
€10,000 Invested
€9,659
1.0x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
17 May 2026 17:00 17 May 2026 19:00 $0.38610 $0.38910 +0.36% BEAR 3 signal
17 May 2026 02:00 17 May 2026 07:00 $0.39280 $0.40030 +1.49% NEUTRAL 6 signal
16 May 2026 14:00 16 May 2026 16:00 $0.39960 $0.40190 +0.16% BEAR 3 signal
16 May 2026 08:00 16 May 2026 13:00 $0.40800 $0.39960 -2.46% BEAR 6 signal
16 May 2026 00:00 16 May 2026 02:00 $0.42170 $0.42370 +0.06% BEAR 3 signal
13 May 2026 22:00 14 May 2026 00:00 $0.45500 $0.45360 -0.72% BEAR 3 signal
04 May 2026 13:00 04 May 2026 15:00 $0.34630 $0.34670 -0.19% BEAR 3 signal
10 Apr 2026 08:00 10 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.30040 $0.30110 -0.08% BEAR 3 signal
06 Apr 2026 23:00 07 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.28630 $0.28520 -0.69% CRASH 3 signal
05 Apr 2026 03:00 05 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.28700 $0.28430 -1.46% CRASH 3 stop
04 Apr 2026 02:00 04 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.28840 $0.28760 -0.69% CRASH 3 signal
03 Apr 2026 23:00 04 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.28980 $0.28840 -0.89% BEAR 3 signal
03 Apr 2026 05:00 03 Apr 2026 07:00 $0.28940 $0.29370 +1.07% BEAR 3 signal
03 Apr 2026 02:00 03 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.28450 $0.28940 +1.31% BEAR 3 signal
02 Apr 2026 18:00 02 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.28490 $0.28440 -0.58% CRASH 3 signal
02 Apr 2026 02:00 02 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.28900 $0.28630 -1.46% CRASH 11 stop
01 Apr 2026 22:00 02 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.29870 $0.29590 -1.46% CRASH 4 stop
01 Apr 2026 18:00 01 Apr 2026 21:00 $0.30090 $0.29870 -1.14% BEAR 4 signal
01 Apr 2026 14:00 01 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.30150 $0.30320 +0.15% BEAR 3 signal
01 Apr 2026 04:00 01 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.29480 $0.30000 +1.35% BEAR 5 signal
31 Mar 2026 19:00 01 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.29650 $0.29420 -1.18% CRASH 7 signal
31 Mar 2026 15:00 31 Mar 2026 17:00 $0.29510 $0.29650 +0.06% CRASH 3 signal
31 Mar 2026 11:00 31 Mar 2026 13:00 $0.29160 $0.29610 +1.13% CRASH 3 signal
31 Mar 2026 01:00 31 Mar 2026 03:00 $0.29710 $0.29660 -0.58% CRASH 3 signal
30 Mar 2026 13:00 30 Mar 2026 23:00 $0.30340 $0.30050 -1.46% CRASH 11 stop
30 Mar 2026 08:00 30 Mar 2026 09:00 $0.30400 $0.30110 -1.46% CRASH 2 stop
30 Mar 2026 05:00 30 Mar 2026 07:00 $0.30110 $0.30400 +0.55% BEAR 3 exit_fp
29 Mar 2026 21:00 30 Mar 2026 04:00 $0.29330 $0.30110 +2.24% BEAR 8 exit_fp
28 Mar 2026 19:00 28 Mar 2026 23:00 $0.30160 $0.29880 -1.46% CRASH 5 stop
28 Mar 2026 06:00 28 Mar 2026 08:00 $0.29680 $0.29910 +0.36% CRASH 3 signal
28 Mar 2026 01:00 28 Mar 2026 04:00 $0.29600 $0.29570 -0.51% CRASH 4 signal
27 Mar 2026 19:00 27 Mar 2026 21:00 $0.29960 $0.30130 +0.16% CRASH 3 signal
27 Mar 2026 16:00 27 Mar 2026 18:00 $0.30280 $0.29960 -1.46% CRASH 3 signal
27 Mar 2026 10:00 27 Mar 2026 12:00 $0.31090 $0.30550 -2.14% CRASH 3 signal
27 Mar 2026 03:00 27 Mar 2026 06:00 $0.31580 $0.31660 -0.16% BEAR 4 signal
26 Mar 2026 03:00 26 Mar 2026 07:00 $0.32790 $0.32480 -1.46% CRASH 5 stop
24 Mar 2026 20:00 24 Mar 2026 22:00 $0.32460 $0.33340 +2.29% BEAR 3 signal
24 Mar 2026 15:00 24 Mar 2026 19:00 $0.32530 $0.32460 -0.62% BEAR 5 signal
24 Mar 2026 05:00 24 Mar 2026 09:00 $0.32670 $0.32930 +0.38% BEAR 5 signal
24 Mar 2026 01:00 24 Mar 2026 03:00 $0.32690 $0.32900 +0.23% BEAR 3 signal
23 Mar 2026 02:00 23 Mar 2026 11:00 $0.31530 $0.32320 +2.09% BEAR 10 signal
20 Mar 2026 19:00 20 Mar 2026 21:00 $0.33050 $0.33650 +1.40% BEAR 3 signal
20 Mar 2026 14:00 20 Mar 2026 16:00 $0.33360 $0.33330 -0.50% BEAR 3 signal
19 Mar 2026 10:00 19 Mar 2026 12:00 $0.34150 $0.33390 -2.63% CRASH 3 signal
12 Mar 2026 06:00 12 Mar 2026 08:00 $0.32880 $0.33050 +0.11% BEAR 3 signal
10 Mar 2026 22:00 11 Mar 2026 00:00 $0.32600 $0.32830 +0.29% BEAR 3 signal
09 Mar 2026 00:00 09 Mar 2026 02:00 $0.31380 $0.32150 +2.03% BEAR 3 signal
28 Feb 2026 12:00 28 Feb 2026 14:00 $0.29960 $0.30200 +0.39% CRASH 3 signal
28 Feb 2026 08:00 28 Feb 2026 10:00 $0.30360 $0.30200 -0.93% CRASH 3 signal
24 Feb 2026 21:00 24 Feb 2026 23:00 $0.29900 $0.30040 +0.06% CRASH 3 signal

Start Trading Celestia Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time TIA signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

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46.9% Win Rate Sharpe 2.08 710 Trades -9.4% Max Drawdown