TONTONToncoin$1.6200+2.99%
24h High$1.64
24h Low$1.56
Volume$5.5M
Updated16:43 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / TON
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

TON Toncoin (TON) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for TON - Toncoin. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Jan 2025 → May 2026 across 3 walk-forward cycles (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 272 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $26,676. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 3 Walk-Forward Cycles • Jan 2025 – May 2026 • $1.6200 (+2.99%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Toncoin (TON) is the native token of The Open Network, originally designed by the Telegram team and now developed by an independent foundation. TON benefits from native integration with Telegram's 900M+ user base, driving adoption through wallets, mini-apps, and in-chat payments. Listed since 2021, it has multi-cycle history with sharp narrative-driven moves around Telegram product launches. Volatility tends to spike around regulatory developments tied to the Telegram parent project.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log All Backtests View TON Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
2.26
Sortino Ratio
1.71
Profit Factor
1.86
Calmar Ratio
13.89
Win Rate
47.9%
Max Drawdown
-13.0%
Avg Drawdown
-9.49%
Alpha vs B&H
-4,848,882.0pp
Total Trades
91
Exposure
21.3%
Beats B&H
3/3
Sharpe Trend
-0.30
TON

TON Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +1.1%
8t
 		+25.3%
21t
 		+15.7%
22t
 		+7.5%
22t
 		+2.2%
14t
 		+2.6%
14t
 		-1.5%
8t
 		-3.4%
8t
 		-2.5%
8t
 		+25.6%
27t
 		+8.2%
20t
 		+1.6%
7t
 		+111.3%
2026 +3.1%
18t
 		+16.8%
24t
+5.0%
20t
+5.4%
15t
+12.1%
16t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +49.4%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +166.8% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 91 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +2.02% on 13 trades, WR 69%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for TON over the latest walk-forward cycle (2025-12-11 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BULL 13 65.5% +1.62% 7.66 14.1
BEAR 94 52.5% +0.41% 2.01 10.9

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 Jan '25 – Jul '25 2.68 45% -6.4% 48.5% 101 Yes
2 Jul '25 – Dec '25 1.71 22% -13.0% 44.6% 74 Yes
3 Dec '25 – May '26 2.38 50% -9.1% 50.5% 97 Yes

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Mar 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+27.4%
Win Rate
48.0%
24W / 26L
Max Drawdown
-5.2%
€10,000 Invested
€12,736
1.3x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
17 May 2026 18:00 19 May 2026 08:00 $1.910 $2.048 +7.02% BULL 39 short_signal
17 May 2026 13:00 17 May 2026 16:00 $1.936 $1.915 -1.33% NEUTRAL 4 stop
16 May 2026 07:00 17 May 2026 10:00 $1.872 $1.955 +4.24% BULL 28 exit_fp
15 May 2026 14:00 16 May 2026 06:00 $2.008 $1.987 -1.33% BEAR 17 stop
15 May 2026 06:00 15 May 2026 13:00 $2.058 $2.036 -1.33% BEAR 8 stop
14 May 2026 09:00 15 May 2026 05:00 $2.107 $2.084 -1.33% NEUTRAL 21 stop
13 May 2026 14:00 14 May 2026 00:00 $2.144 $2.121 -1.33% BEAR 11 stop
13 May 2026 07:00 13 May 2026 10:00 $2.274 $2.250 -1.33% NEUTRAL 4 stop
12 May 2026 03:00 12 May 2026 09:00 $2.364 $2.449 +3.40% BULL 7 short_signal
10 May 2026 10:00 10 May 2026 19:00 $2.392 $2.410 +0.56% BULL 10 signal
09 May 2026 21:00 09 May 2026 23:00 $2.440 $2.436 -0.35% NEUTRAL 3 signal
09 May 2026 07:00 09 May 2026 10:00 $2.572 $2.544 -1.33% BULL 4 stop
08 May 2026 11:00 08 May 2026 19:00 $2.576 $2.549 -1.37% NEUTRAL 9 stop
07 May 2026 15:00 07 May 2026 21:00 $2.413 $2.612 +7.98% BULL 7 short_signal
02 May 2026 22:00 03 May 2026 04:00 $1.347 $1.334 -1.21% BULL 7 short_signal
02 May 2026 01:00 02 May 2026 09:00 $1.312 $1.332 +1.27% NEUTRAL 9 signal
29 Apr 2026 08:00 29 Apr 2026 10:00 $1.318 $1.333 +0.95% BEAR 3 signal
23 Apr 2026 11:00 24 Apr 2026 09:00 $1.331 $1.317 -1.33% CRASH 23 stop
23 Apr 2026 01:00 23 Apr 2026 10:00 $1.355 $1.341 -1.37% CRASH 10 stop
21 Apr 2026 03:00 21 Apr 2026 23:00 $1.351 $1.363 +0.64% BEAR 21 signal
19 Apr 2026 18:00 20 Apr 2026 13:00 $1.291 $1.317 +1.76% NEUTRAL 20 exit_fp
19 Apr 2026 02:00 19 Apr 2026 12:00 $1.278 $1.302 +1.62% CRASH 11 exit_fp
18 Apr 2026 21:00 19 Apr 2026 00:00 $1.336 $1.322 -1.37% CRASH 4 stop
18 Apr 2026 18:00 18 Apr 2026 19:00 $1.369 $1.355 -1.37% CRASH 2 stop
16 Apr 2026 12:00 17 Apr 2026 00:00 $1.399 $1.441 +2.75% NEUTRAL 13 exit_fp
16 Apr 2026 01:00 16 Apr 2026 09:00 $1.398 $1.409 +0.54% BEAR 9 signal
15 Apr 2026 07:00 15 Apr 2026 20:00 $1.364 $1.401 +2.46% BEAR 14 exit_fp
14 Apr 2026 17:00 15 Apr 2026 06:00 $1.388 $1.374 -1.37% CRASH 14 stop
14 Apr 2026 01:00 14 Apr 2026 05:00 $1.431 $1.440 +0.38% NEUTRAL 5 signal
13 Apr 2026 11:00 13 Apr 2026 13:00 $1.410 $1.436 +1.59% BEAR 3 signal
07 Apr 2026 08:00 07 Apr 2026 11:00 $1.230 $1.227 -0.49% BEAR 4 signal
29 Mar 2026 16:00 30 Mar 2026 00:00 $1.221 $1.223 -0.03% BEAR 9 signal
29 Mar 2026 01:00 29 Mar 2026 09:00 $1.236 $1.248 +0.72% BEAR 9 signal
28 Mar 2026 08:00 28 Mar 2026 10:00 $1.234 $1.235 -0.17% BEAR 3 signal
27 Mar 2026 11:00 28 Mar 2026 01:00 $1.233 $1.220 -1.37% CRASH 15 stop
26 Mar 2026 10:00 27 Mar 2026 10:00 $1.297 $1.284 -1.37% CRASH 25 stop
25 Mar 2026 21:00 26 Mar 2026 00:00 $1.326 $1.323 -0.48% BEAR 4 signal
25 Mar 2026 01:00 25 Mar 2026 08:00 $1.322 $1.329 +0.28% BEAR 8 signal
20 Mar 2026 14:00 22 Mar 2026 00:00 $1.224 $1.269 +3.42% BEAR 35 signal
20 Mar 2026 03:00 20 Mar 2026 09:00 $1.211 $1.242 +2.30% CRASH 7 exit_fp
19 Mar 2026 05:00 20 Mar 2026 02:00 $1.281 $1.267 -1.33% CRASH 22 stop
14 Mar 2026 01:00 15 Mar 2026 13:00 $1.302 $1.288 -1.33% BEAR 37 stop
12 Mar 2026 15:00 13 Mar 2026 02:00 $1.310 $1.313 +0.04% CRASH 12 signal
12 Mar 2026 01:00 12 Mar 2026 09:00 $1.336 $1.343 +0.33% NEUTRAL 9 signal
10 Mar 2026 19:00 11 Mar 2026 01:00 $1.321 $1.307 -1.33% CRASH 7 stop
07 Mar 2026 18:00 08 Mar 2026 08:00 $1.301 $1.325 +1.65% BEAR 15 signal
07 Mar 2026 15:00 07 Mar 2026 17:00 $1.326 $1.312 -1.33% CRASH 3 stop
06 Mar 2026 15:00 06 Mar 2026 21:00 $1.307 $1.332 +1.72% BEAR 7 signal
02 Mar 2026 03:00 02 Mar 2026 14:00 $1.200 $1.250 +3.97% CRASH 12 exit_fp
01 Mar 2026 14:00 02 Mar 2026 00:00 $1.244 $1.231 -1.33% CRASH 11 stop

Start Trading Toncoin Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time TON signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

Get Started → TON Signals → View Plans →
47.9% Win Rate Sharpe 2.26 91 Trades -13.0% Max Drawdown