TRBTRBTellor$13.8900-0.22%
24h High$14.07
24h Low$13.65
Volume$506,189
Updated15:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / TRB
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

TRB Tellor (TRB) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for TRB - Tellor. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Apr 2024 → May 2026 across 1 walk-forward cycle (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 751 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $401,526. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 1 Walk-Forward Cycle • Apr 2024 – May 2026 • $13.8900 (-0.22%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Tellor (TRB) provides a decentralized oracle network that delivers off-chain data on-chain via a proof-of-work-style competitive reporting system. Long-running protocol (since 2019) with 49K+ bars of history. Volatile due to thin liquidity but well-suited for systematic strategies.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Trade Log All Backtests View TRB Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
5.03
Sortino Ratio
5.97
Profit Factor
2.71
Calmar Ratio
46.94
Win Rate
45.9%
Max Drawdown
-10.4%
Avg Drawdown
-10.45%
Alpha vs B&H
+10,896.0pp
Total Trades
751
Exposure
58.0%
Beats B&H
1/1
Cycles
1
TRB

TRB Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
-2.1%
6t
+57.7%
31t
+62.0%
34t
+50.4%
34t
+53.2%
21t
+37.6%
26t
+5.8%
20t
+63.3%
32t
+9.8%
20t
 +1,405.9%
2025
+45.2%
32t
+80.6%
39t
+15.0%
29t
+41.1%
38t
+106.3%
36t
+31.9%
34t
+29.7%
27t
+34.6%
29t
+4.6%
26t
+50.3%
36t
+40.8%
34t
+23.7%
27t
 +5,428.0%
2026
+17.8%
32t
+22.6%
28t
+7.3%
27t
+60.9%
34t
+22.8%
19t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +206.3%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +3,915.3% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 751 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +4.95% on 10 trades, WR 80%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for TRB over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 10 80.0% +4.95% 20.50 18.4
BULL 78 65.4% +2.80% 7.59 20.7
BEAR 294 50.7% +1.28% 3.17 15.1

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Apr 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+39.5%
Win Rate
44.0%
22W / 28L
Max Drawdown
-3.9%
€10,000 Invested
€13,950
1.4x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
19 May 2026 12:00 19 May 2026 21:00 $17.110 $17.170 +0.25% BULL 10 signal
18 May 2026 00:00 19 May 2026 11:00 $16.790 $17.025 +1.26% NEUTRAL 36 trail
17 May 2026 02:00 17 May 2026 23:00 $17.160 $16.966 -1.27% NEUTRAL 22 stop
15 May 2026 14:00 17 May 2026 01:00 $18.100 $17.895 -1.27% BEAR 36 stop
15 May 2026 06:00 15 May 2026 13:00 $18.650 $18.439 -1.27% BEAR 8 stop
14 May 2026 03:00 15 May 2026 05:00 $18.970 $18.756 -1.27% BULL 27 stop
12 May 2026 16:00 14 May 2026 02:00 $19.370 $19.151 -1.27% BEAR 35 stop
12 May 2026 04:00 12 May 2026 15:00 $19.890 $19.665 -1.27% NEUTRAL 12 stop
11 May 2026 13:00 12 May 2026 02:00 $20.300 $20.070 -1.27% BULL 14 stop
10 May 2026 02:00 10 May 2026 15:00 $20.100 $20.570 +2.24% BUBBLE 14 signal
09 May 2026 15:00 10 May 2026 01:00 $20.350 $20.120 -1.27% BULL 11 stop
09 May 2026 10:00 09 May 2026 12:00 $20.510 $20.590 +0.29% BUBBLE 3 signal
07 May 2026 02:00 09 May 2026 08:00 $19.650 $20.590 +4.68% BUBBLE 55 signal
04 May 2026 14:00 05 May 2026 00:00 $19.350 $19.840 +2.43% BULL 11 signal
04 May 2026 00:00 04 May 2026 13:00 $19.780 $19.556 -1.27% NEUTRAL 14 stop
02 May 2026 16:00 03 May 2026 13:00 $20.490 $20.258 -1.27% NEUTRAL 22 stop
01 May 2026 09:00 02 May 2026 12:00 $19.010 $20.009 +5.11% NEUTRAL 28 trail
01 May 2026 05:00 01 May 2026 08:00 $19.270 $19.052 -1.27% BEAR 4 stop
29 Apr 2026 20:00 01 May 2026 03:00 $18.070 $21.800 +20.52% BULL 32 exit_fp
29 Apr 2026 16:00 29 Apr 2026 19:00 $18.370 $18.162 -1.27% BEAR 4 stop
28 Apr 2026 12:00 29 Apr 2026 10:00 $18.110 $18.970 +4.64% BULL 23 short_signal
25 Apr 2026 16:00 28 Apr 2026 11:00 $18.330 $18.126 -1.29% NEUTRAL 68 stop
25 Apr 2026 13:00 25 Apr 2026 15:00 $18.540 $18.334 -1.29% BEAR 3 stop
25 Apr 2026 07:00 25 Apr 2026 12:00 $18.750 $18.542 -1.29% NEUTRAL 6 stop
24 Apr 2026 16:00 25 Apr 2026 00:00 $19.090 $18.878 -1.29% BULL 9 stop
23 Apr 2026 06:00 24 Apr 2026 15:00 $17.870 $19.090 +6.69% BULL 34 exit_fp
21 Apr 2026 04:00 23 Apr 2026 05:00 $18.220 $18.018 -1.29% BEAR 50 stop
20 Apr 2026 01:00 21 Apr 2026 03:00 $17.880 $18.287 +2.09% NEUTRAL 27 trail
19 Apr 2026 21:00 20 Apr 2026 00:00 $18.480 $18.275 -1.29% CRASH 4 stop
19 Apr 2026 18:00 19 Apr 2026 20:00 $18.670 $18.463 -1.29% BEAR 3 stop
19 Apr 2026 04:00 19 Apr 2026 17:00 $18.890 $18.680 -1.29% NEUTRAL 14 stop
18 Apr 2026 16:00 19 Apr 2026 03:00 $19.260 $19.046 -1.29% BEAR 12 stop
18 Apr 2026 09:00 18 Apr 2026 15:00 $20.090 $19.867 -1.29% CRASH 7 stop
18 Apr 2026 06:00 18 Apr 2026 08:00 $21.610 $21.370 -1.29% BEAR 3 stop
17 Apr 2026 01:00 18 Apr 2026 05:00 $20.420 $21.610 +5.69% NEUTRAL 29 exit_fp
16 Apr 2026 18:00 16 Apr 2026 22:00 $18.850 $20.220 +7.13% BEAR 5 exit_fp
16 Apr 2026 10:00 16 Apr 2026 17:00 $17.600 $18.850 +6.96% BEAR 8 exit_fp
16 Apr 2026 07:00 16 Apr 2026 09:00 $18.800 $18.591 -1.29% BEAR 3 stop
15 Apr 2026 16:00 16 Apr 2026 03:00 $16.010 $18.700 +16.65% BEAR 12 exit_fp
14 Apr 2026 19:00 15 Apr 2026 14:00 $15.250 $16.120 +5.57% BEAR 20 signal
14 Apr 2026 15:00 14 Apr 2026 18:00 $15.470 $15.298 -1.29% CRASH 4 stop
12 Apr 2026 23:00 14 Apr 2026 14:00 $15.190 $15.541 +2.13% BEAR 40 trail
12 Apr 2026 02:00 12 Apr 2026 22:00 $15.480 $15.308 -1.29% BEAR 21 stop
11 Apr 2026 21:00 12 Apr 2026 01:00 $15.930 $15.753 -1.29% CRASH 5 stop
11 Apr 2026 07:00 11 Apr 2026 18:00 $15.650 $16.220 +3.51% BEAR 12 signal
09 Apr 2026 00:00 10 Apr 2026 18:00 $14.810 $16.120 +8.70% BEAR 43 exit_fp
08 Apr 2026 15:00 08 Apr 2026 23:00 $14.960 $14.794 -1.29% CRASH 9 stop
07 Apr 2026 09:00 08 Apr 2026 14:00 $14.690 $14.978 +1.78% BEAR 30 trail
05 Apr 2026 06:00 07 Apr 2026 08:00 $14.580 $14.763 +1.08% BEAR 51 trail
04 Apr 2026 03:00 05 Apr 2026 05:00 $14.500 $14.697 +1.18% BEAR 27 trail

Start Trading Tellor Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time TRB signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

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45.9% Win Rate Sharpe 5.03 751 Trades -10.4% Max Drawdown