JUPJUPJupiter$0.206200+10.80%
24h High$0.21
24h Low$0.18
Volume$3.1M
Updated16:43 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / JUP
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

JUP Jupiter (JUP) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for JUP - Jupiter. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Aug 2024 → May 2026 across 3 walk-forward cycles (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 641 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $65,332. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) 3 Walk-Forward Cycles Aug 2024 – May 2026 $0.206200 (+10.80%)
Walk-forward validated Backtest = Live (bit-identical) Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) Forward-look-bias audited

Jupiter (JUP) is the dominant Solana DEX aggregator routing trades across all major Solana liquidity sources. Token holders share aggregator fees. Marginal history (since early-2024 airdrop) — model treats JUP under limited-history confidence.

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
2.89
Sortino Ratio
2.74
Profit Factor
1.76
Calmar Ratio
23.64
Win Rate
42.9%
Max Drawdown
-11.9%
Avg Drawdown
-10.53%
Alpha vs B&H
+3,025,773.6pp
Total Trades
214
Exposure
47.1%
Beats B&H
3/3
Sharpe Trend
-1.19
JUP

JUP Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
-1.8%
2t
+18.2%
36t
+4.3%
19t
+24.6%
35t
+27.8%
38t
+92.6%
2025
+8.7%
20t
+28.5%
44t
-2.5%
58t
+44.0%
43t
+85.0%
48t
+36.5%
32t
+33.9%
42t
+34.6%
33t
-9.2%
31t
+28.6%
31t
+0.2%
26t
+8.6%
15t
+1,034.7%
2026
+5.7%
22t
+27.2%
19t
+15.6%
13t
+6.8%
16t
-2.6%
18t
+61.6%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • Exceptional return: +553.3% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • Robust sample: 214 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +2.22% on 14 trades, WR 86%.
  • Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -0.13% on 239 trades, WR 29%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for JUP over the latest walk-forward cycle (2025-10-24 → 2026-05-20) with every entry () and exit ( profitable, loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
Entry Profit exit Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 14 89.2% +2.10% 43.27 13.2
BULL 62 54.9% +1.73% 4.42 13.5
BEAR 241 50.9% +0.83% 2.29 11.5

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 Aug '24 – Mar '25 2.83 73% -8.7% 43.9% 246 Yes
2 Mar '25 – Oct '25 4.20 186% -11.0% 42.1% 266 Yes
3 Oct '25 – May '26 1.64 32% -11.9% 42.6% 129 Yes

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Feb 2026 – May 2026).

Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
16 May 2026 10:00 17 May 2026 01:00 $0.19910 $0.19720 -1.46% NEUTRAL 16 stop
16 May 2026 06:00 16 May 2026 09:00 $0.20730 $0.20530 -1.46% NEUTRAL 4 stop
16 May 2026 04:00 16 May 2026 05:00 $0.21060 $0.20860 -1.46% BULL 2 stop
15 May 2026 14:00 16 May 2026 01:00 $0.21010 $0.21080 -0.08% NEUTRAL 12 signal
15 May 2026 10:00 15 May 2026 13:00 $0.21810 $0.21600 -1.46% BEAR 4 stop
13 May 2026 16:00 14 May 2026 14:00 $0.22160 $0.22760 +2.29% BUBBLE 23 signal
13 May 2026 13:00 13 May 2026 15:00 $0.22810 $0.22590 -1.46% BEAR 3 stop
12 May 2026 14:00 13 May 2026 12:00 $0.23100 $0.22880 -1.46% NEUTRAL 23 stop
12 May 2026 09:00 12 May 2026 13:00 $0.23600 $0.23380 -1.46% BEAR 5 stop
11 May 2026 09:00 11 May 2026 12:00 $0.25550 $0.25330 -1.27% BULL 4 signal
06 May 2026 18:00 07 May 2026 03:00 $0.19640 $0.19450 -1.46% BULL 10 stop
05 May 2026 18:00 06 May 2026 10:00 $0.18860 $0.20060 +5.93% BULL 17 exit_fp
05 May 2026 10:00 05 May 2026 14:00 $0.18480 $0.19250 +3.74% BULL 5 exit_fp
04 May 2026 20:00 05 May 2026 01:00 $0.17990 $0.18150 +0.48% NEUTRAL 6 signal
03 May 2026 17:00 04 May 2026 14:00 $0.17660 $0.17940 +1.17% NEUTRAL 22 signal
03 May 2026 13:00 03 May 2026 16:00 $0.17900 $0.17730 -1.46% BEAR 4 stop
02 May 2026 01:00 03 May 2026 11:00 $0.17970 $0.17800 -1.46% NEUTRAL 35 stop
29 Apr 2026 17:00 01 May 2026 14:00 $0.17940 $0.18030 +0.09% NEUTRAL 46 signal
29 Apr 2026 15:00 29 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.18330 $0.18160 -1.46% CRASH 2 stop
29 Apr 2026 13:00 29 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.18880 $0.18700 -1.46% BEAR 2 stop
29 Apr 2026 09:00 29 Apr 2026 11:00 $0.18740 $0.18910 +0.49% NEUTRAL 3 signal
25 Apr 2026 20:00 25 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.17070 $0.17240 +0.58% NEUTRAL 3 signal
23 Apr 2026 11:00 24 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.16930 $0.17470 +2.77% BULL 33 signal
23 Apr 2026 00:00 23 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.17060 $0.16900 -1.46% CRASH 11 stop
22 Apr 2026 19:00 22 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.17630 $0.17460 -1.46% BEAR 5 stop
21 Apr 2026 03:00 22 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.16720 $0.17790 +5.96% NEUTRAL 39 signal
20 Apr 2026 03:00 21 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.17010 $0.16850 -1.46% BEAR 24 stop
19 Apr 2026 10:00 19 Apr 2026 21:00 $0.17440 $0.17280 -1.46% BEAR 12 stop
15 Apr 2026 20:00 16 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.16900 $0.16920 -0.29% NEUTRAL 5 signal
14 Apr 2026 17:00 14 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.16710 $0.16550 -1.46% BEAR 2 stop
13 Apr 2026 00:00 14 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.16100 $0.16980 +5.03% BEAR 26 signal
10 Apr 2026 13:00 10 Apr 2026 20:00 $0.16310 $0.16730 +2.16% NEUTRAL 8 signal
09 Apr 2026 14:00 10 Apr 2026 11:00 $0.15840 $0.16220 +1.98% NEUTRAL 22 signal
01 Apr 2026 21:00 02 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.15530 $0.15380 -1.46% CRASH 6 stop
30 Mar 2026 20:00 31 Mar 2026 00:00 $0.15100 $0.15310 +0.98% BEAR 5 signal
30 Mar 2026 13:00 30 Mar 2026 16:00 $0.15510 $0.15360 -1.46% CRASH 4 stop
30 Mar 2026 01:00 30 Mar 2026 12:00 $0.14460 $0.15510 +6.82% BEAR 12 exit_fp
27 Mar 2026 22:00 29 Mar 2026 04:00 $0.14200 $0.14460 +1.41% BEAR 31 signal
26 Mar 2026 19:00 27 Mar 2026 20:00 $0.14760 $0.14620 -1.46% CRASH 26 stop
25 Mar 2026 22:00 26 Mar 2026 05:00 $0.15420 $0.15270 -1.46% CRASH 8 stop
19 Mar 2026 17:00 20 Mar 2026 02:00 $0.15740 $0.16010 +1.30% BEAR 10 signal
19 Mar 2026 07:00 19 Mar 2026 16:00 $0.16130 $0.15980 -1.46% CRASH 10 stop
08 Mar 2026 07:00 08 Mar 2026 19:00 $0.16270 $0.16580 +1.49% CRASH 13 signal
07 Mar 2026 23:00 08 Mar 2026 02:00 $0.17030 $0.16870 -1.46% CRASH 4 stop
07 Mar 2026 07:00 07 Mar 2026 11:00 $0.17550 $0.17690 +0.39% BEAR 5 signal
01 Mar 2026 21:00 02 Mar 2026 00:00 $0.16200 $0.17230 +5.92% CRASH 4 signal
28 Feb 2026 21:00 01 Mar 2026 12:00 $0.15900 $0.16630 +4.02% CRASH 16 trail
27 Feb 2026 20:00 28 Feb 2026 06:00 $0.15190 $0.15050 -1.46% CRASH 11 stop
26 Feb 2026 17:00 27 Feb 2026 11:00 $0.15160 $0.15580 +2.24% CRASH 19 trail
26 Feb 2026 08:00 26 Feb 2026 15:00 $0.15890 $0.15740 -1.46% CRASH 8 stop

Start Trading Jupiter Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time JUP signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

42.9% Win Rate Sharpe 2.89 214 Trades -11.9% Max Drawdown