Cardano (ADA) Backtest
Walk-forward validated backtest results for Cardano. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.
Model 2.5.8.3
•
2 Walk-Forward Folds
•
May 2020 – Apr 2026
•
$0.245800 (-2.69%)
Cardano (ADA) is a proof-of-stake blockchain founded by Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson. Distinguished by its academic approach and peer-reviewed research, Cardano emphasizes formal verification and methodical development. While its slower development pace has drawn criticism, it has built a loyal community and growing DeFi ecosystem. ADA tends to move with the broader altcoin market but with its own distinct momentum patterns during major updates.
Performance Overview
Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.
Sharpe Ratio
12.44
Win Rate
81.2%
Max Drawdown
-12.2%
Total Trades
627
Sortino Ratio
14.65
Profit Factor
30.62
Exposure
37.4%
Beats B&H
2/2
Equity Curve
Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each fold starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.
Regime Breakdown
Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.
| Regime | Trades | Win Rate | Avg PnL | Profit Factor | Avg Bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUBBLE | 407 | 75.3% | +3.94% | 32.99 | 13.5 |
| BULL | 122 | 91.6% | +6.03% | 69.70 | 28.7 |
| SIDEWAYS | 608 | 82.6% | +3.10% | 28.33 | 15.4 |
| BEAR | 116 | 81.6% | +3.27% | 29.31 | 12.7 |
Per-Fold Results
Each fold is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.
| Fold | Period | Sharpe | Return | MaxDD | Win Rate | Trades | B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May '20 – Apr '24 | 12.63 | 1,266,709,840x | -12.2% | 83.0% | 847 | Yes |
| 2 | Apr '24 – Apr '26 | 12.25 | 27,883x | -7.5% | 79.3% | 406 | Yes |
Trade Log
Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Jan 2026 – Apr 2026).
Compound Return
+148.7%
Win Rate
78.0%
39W / 11L
Max Drawdown
-1.1%
€10,000 Invested
€24,872
2.5x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
| Entry | Exit | Entry Price | Exit Price | PnL | Regime | Bars | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2026 00:00 | 13 Apr 2026 23:00 | $0.24 | $0.25 | +3.98% | BEAR | 24 | exit_fp |
| 10 Apr 2026 18:00 | 10 Apr 2026 19:00 | $0.26 | $0.26 | +0.41% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 09 Apr 2026 01:00 | 09 Apr 2026 16:00 | $0.25 | $0.26 | +1.79% | BEAR | 16 | exit_fp |
| 07 Apr 2026 01:00 | 07 Apr 2026 22:00 | $0.24 | $0.26 | +7.09% | BEAR | 22 | exit_fp |
| 05 Apr 2026 13:00 | 06 Apr 2026 02:00 | $0.24 | $0.26 | +5.85% | BEAR | 14 | exit_fp |
| 04 Apr 2026 17:00 | 05 Apr 2026 00:00 | $0.25 | $0.25 | -0.13% | BEAR | 8 | signal |
| 02 Apr 2026 12:00 | 04 Apr 2026 00:00 | $0.24 | $0.25 | +3.70% | BEAR | 37 | trail |
| 01 Apr 2026 06:00 | 01 Apr 2026 06:00 | $0.25 | $0.25 | -0.41% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 31 Mar 2026 11:00 | 31 Mar 2026 13:00 | $0.24 | $0.24 | +0.50% | BEAR | 3 | signal |
| 29 Mar 2026 14:00 | 30 Mar 2026 08:00 | $0.24 | $0.25 | +3.09% | BEAR | 19 | exit_fp |
| 28 Mar 2026 03:00 | 28 Mar 2026 07:00 | $0.24 | $0.25 | +1.06% | BEAR | 5 | signal |
| 24 Mar 2026 14:00 | 25 Mar 2026 09:00 | $0.26 | $0.27 | +3.71% | BEAR | 20 | exit_fp |
| 23 Mar 2026 01:00 | 24 Mar 2026 01:00 | $0.25 | $0.26 | +2.94% | BEAR | 25 | trail |
| 20 Mar 2026 21:00 | 20 Mar 2026 21:00 | $0.27 | $0.27 | -0.41% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 19 Mar 2026 13:00 | 19 Mar 2026 13:00 | $0.27 | $0.27 | -0.41% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 17 Mar 2026 13:00 | 17 Mar 2026 22:00 | $0.29 | $0.29 | +1.79% | BEAR | 10 | exit_fp |
| 16 Mar 2026 05:00 | 17 Mar 2026 00:00 | $0.29 | $0.29 | +0.25% | BEAR | 20 | signal |
| 14 Mar 2026 10:00 | 15 Mar 2026 16:00 | $0.26 | $0.26 | +0.68% | BEAR | 31 | trail |
| 12 Mar 2026 13:00 | 13 Mar 2026 08:00 | $0.26 | $0.27 | +3.62% | BEAR | 20 | signal |
| 11 Mar 2026 06:00 | 12 Mar 2026 00:00 | $0.26 | $0.26 | +1.01% | BEAR | 19 | trail |
| 10 Mar 2026 02:00 | 10 Mar 2026 08:00 | $0.26 | $0.26 | -0.52% | BEAR | 7 | signal |
| 08 Mar 2026 16:00 | 09 Mar 2026 13:00 | $0.25 | $0.26 | +3.14% | BEAR | 22 | exit_fp |
| 04 Mar 2026 01:00 | 04 Mar 2026 18:00 | $0.26 | $0.28 | +6.27% | BEAR | 18 | exit_fp |
| 02 Mar 2026 08:00 | 02 Mar 2026 15:00 | $0.27 | $0.28 | +4.02% | BEAR | 8 | exit_fp |
| 28 Feb 2026 07:00 | 28 Feb 2026 20:00 | $0.27 | $0.28 | +5.49% | BEAR | 14 | exit_fp |
| 26 Feb 2026 17:00 | 26 Feb 2026 18:00 | $0.28 | $0.29 | +0.57% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 24 Feb 2026 13:00 | 25 Feb 2026 16:00 | $0.26 | $0.30 | +14.71% | BEAR | 28 | exit_fp |
| 23 Feb 2026 02:00 | 23 Feb 2026 09:00 | $0.26 | $0.27 | +3.80% | BEAR | 8 | exit_fp |
| 19 Feb 2026 20:00 | 20 Feb 2026 15:00 | $0.27 | $0.29 | +5.43% | BEAR | 20 | exit_fp |
| 19 Feb 2026 00:00 | 19 Feb 2026 07:00 | $0.27 | $0.28 | +0.98% | BEAR | 8 | signal |
| 17 Feb 2026 15:00 | 17 Feb 2026 15:00 | $0.28 | $0.28 | -0.41% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 16 Feb 2026 16:00 | 16 Feb 2026 21:00 | $0.28 | $0.29 | +1.71% | BEAR | 6 | exit_fp |
| 15 Feb 2026 19:00 | 15 Feb 2026 21:00 | $0.28 | $0.28 | +0.05% | BEAR | 3 | signal |
| 12 Feb 2026 23:00 | 14 Feb 2026 08:00 | $0.26 | $0.28 | +5.05% | BEAR | 34 | signal |
| 11 Feb 2026 10:00 | 12 Feb 2026 10:00 | $0.25 | $0.27 | +6.09% | BEAR | 25 | exit_fp |
| 09 Feb 2026 10:00 | 09 Feb 2026 16:00 | $0.26 | $0.27 | +3.11% | BEAR | 7 | signal |
| 06 Feb 2026 00:00 | 06 Feb 2026 15:00 | $0.24 | $0.27 | +11.79% | BEAR | 16 | exit_fp |
| 03 Feb 2026 19:00 | 03 Feb 2026 19:00 | $0.29 | $0.29 | -0.31% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 02 Feb 2026 19:00 | 03 Feb 2026 00:00 | $0.30 | $0.30 | -0.55% | BEAR | 6 | regime_exit |
| 02 Feb 2026 04:00 | 02 Feb 2026 06:00 | $0.29 | $0.28 | -0.76% | BEAR | 3 | regime_exit |
| 31 Jan 2026 16:00 | 01 Feb 2026 00:00 | $0.29 | $0.30 | +0.68% | SIDEWAYS | 9 | exit_fp |
| 28 Jan 2026 04:00 | 28 Jan 2026 09:00 | $0.36 | $0.36 | +1.13% | SIDEWAYS | 6 | exit_fp |
| 25 Jan 2026 20:00 | 27 Jan 2026 13:00 | $0.34 | $0.35 | +3.53% | SIDEWAYS | 42 | trail |
| 23 Jan 2026 15:00 | 23 Jan 2026 15:00 | $0.36 | $0.36 | -0.31% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 21 Jan 2026 18:00 | 21 Jan 2026 22:00 | $0.35 | $0.37 | +3.86% | SIDEWAYS | 5 | exit_fp |
| 21 Jan 2026 01:00 | 21 Jan 2026 05:00 | $0.36 | $0.36 | +0.51% | SIDEWAYS | 5 | exit_fp |
| 19 Jan 2026 01:00 | 19 Jan 2026 09:00 | $0.36 | $0.37 | +1.32% | SIDEWAYS | 9 | exit_fp |
| 16 Jan 2026 18:00 | 17 Jan 2026 14:00 | $0.39 | $0.40 | +3.33% | SIDEWAYS | 21 | exit_fp |
| 16 Jan 2026 05:00 | 16 Jan 2026 05:00 | $0.39 | $0.39 | -0.41% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 13 Jan 2026 06:00 | 14 Jan 2026 00:00 | $0.39 | $0.42 | +7.26% | SIDEWAYS | 19 | exit_fp |
Start Trading Cardano Smarter
These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time ADA signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.
81.2% Win Rate
Sharpe 12.44
627 Trades
Free Plan Available
