Aptos (APT) Backtest
Walk-forward validated backtest results for Aptos. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.
Model 2.5.8.3
•
1 Walk-Forward Fold
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Apr 2024 – Apr 2026
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$0.929000 (-2.72%)
Aptos (APT) is a Layer 1 blockchain built by former members of Meta's Diem project. Using the Move programming language, Aptos focuses on safety, scalability, and user experience. As a newer asset with high institutional backing, APT shows strong trending behavior during market sentiment shifts. Our model tracks its momentum patterns and cross-correlation with other Layer 1 tokens for signal generation.
Performance Overview
Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.
Sharpe Ratio
11.46
Win Rate
81.4%
Max Drawdown
-8.9%
Total Trades
334
Sortino Ratio
11.44
Profit Factor
23.45
Exposure
30.5%
Beats B&H
1/1
Equity Curve
Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each fold starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.
Regime Breakdown
Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.
| Regime | Trades | Win Rate | Avg PnL | Profit Factor | Avg Bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUBBLE | 127 | 65.4% | +2.92% | 34.16 | 11.4 |
| BULL | 42 | 90.5% | +4.10% | 7.46 | 27.2 |
| SIDEWAYS | 164 | 91.5% | +4.06% | 42.29 | 17.8 |
| BEAR | 1 | 100.0% | +3.11% | 0.00 | 8.0 |
Trade Log
Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Oct 2025 – Feb 2026).
Compound Return
+194.9%
Win Rate
90.0%
45W / 5L
Max Drawdown
-4.1%
€10,000 Invested
€29,492
2.9x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
| Entry | Exit | Entry Price | Exit Price | PnL | Regime | Bars | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Feb 2026 01:00 | 02 Feb 2026 14:00 | $1.26 | $1.28 | +0.94% | SIDEWAYS | 14 | signal |
| 31 Jan 2026 18:00 | 31 Jan 2026 23:00 | $1.21 | $1.28 | +5.02% | SIDEWAYS | 6 | exit_fp |
| 27 Jan 2026 20:00 | 28 Jan 2026 09:00 | $1.59 | $1.60 | +0.57% | SIDEWAYS | 14 | signal |
| 25 Jan 2026 19:00 | 27 Jan 2026 05:00 | $1.46 | $1.58 | +8.16% | SIDEWAYS | 35 | take_profit |
| 21 Jan 2026 13:00 | 22 Jan 2026 19:00 | $1.55 | $1.56 | +0.59% | SIDEWAYS | 31 | signal |
| 19 Jan 2026 01:00 | 19 Jan 2026 01:00 | $1.64 | $1.64 | -0.25% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 16 Jan 2026 16:00 | 17 Jan 2026 08:00 | $1.76 | $1.87 | +6.04% | SIDEWAYS | 17 | exit_fp |
| 12 Jan 2026 09:00 | 13 Jan 2026 15:00 | $1.75 | $1.91 | +8.74% | SIDEWAYS | 31 | exit_fp |
| 09 Jan 2026 13:00 | 10 Jan 2026 00:00 | $1.80 | $1.82 | +0.97% | SIDEWAYS | 12 | signal |
| 06 Jan 2026 18:00 | 06 Jan 2026 21:00 | $1.91 | $1.97 | +3.21% | SIDEWAYS | 4 | signal |
| 05 Jan 2026 13:00 | 05 Jan 2026 18:00 | $1.91 | $1.98 | +3.72% | SIDEWAYS | 6 | exit_fp |
| 03 Jan 2026 16:00 | 05 Jan 2026 00:00 | $1.90 | $1.95 | +2.58% | SIDEWAYS | 33 | signal |
| 02 Jan 2026 05:00 | 03 Jan 2026 03:00 | $1.85 | $1.93 | +3.94% | SIDEWAYS | 23 | exit_fp |
| 31 Dec 2025 19:00 | 01 Jan 2026 16:00 | $1.66 | $1.79 | +8.01% | SIDEWAYS | 22 | take_profit |
| 30 Dec 2025 05:00 | 30 Dec 2025 07:00 | $1.68 | $1.69 | +0.11% | SIDEWAYS | 3 | signal |
| 27 Dec 2025 01:00 | 28 Dec 2025 00:00 | $1.70 | $1.74 | +2.15% | SIDEWAYS | 24 | signal |
| 19 Dec 2025 02:00 | 19 Dec 2025 19:00 | $1.45 | $1.63 | +12.28% | SIDEWAYS | 18 | exit_fp |
| 18 Dec 2025 04:00 | 18 Dec 2025 13:00 | $1.48 | $1.56 | +5.02% | SIDEWAYS | 10 | exit_fp |
| 15 Dec 2025 17:00 | 17 Dec 2025 00:00 | $1.54 | $1.58 | +2.47% | SIDEWAYS | 32 | signal |
| 12 Dec 2025 17:00 | 13 Dec 2025 16:00 | $1.62 | $1.70 | +5.00% | SIDEWAYS | 24 | exit_fp |
| 08 Dec 2025 04:00 | 09 Dec 2025 16:00 | $1.75 | $1.89 | +7.49% | SIDEWAYS | 37 | exit_fp |
| 07 Dec 2025 15:00 | 07 Dec 2025 15:00 | $1.73 | $1.73 | -0.25% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 06 Dec 2025 01:00 | 06 Dec 2025 16:00 | $1.72 | $1.78 | +2.82% | SIDEWAYS | 16 | exit_fp |
| 02 Dec 2025 19:00 | 03 Dec 2025 09:00 | $1.98 | $2.02 | +1.78% | SIDEWAYS | 15 | signal |
| 01 Dec 2025 17:00 | 02 Dec 2025 06:00 | $1.82 | $1.92 | +5.46% | SIDEWAYS | 14 | exit_fp |
| 16 Nov 2025 17:00 | 17 Nov 2025 00:00 | $2.78 | $2.87 | +3.11% | BEAR | 8 | regime_exit |
| 15 Nov 2025 00:00 | 15 Nov 2025 01:00 | $2.96 | $2.97 | +0.18% | SIDEWAYS | 2 | signal |
| 14 Nov 2025 05:00 | 14 Nov 2025 06:00 | $2.93 | $2.96 | +1.00% | SIDEWAYS | 2 | signal |
| 13 Nov 2025 02:00 | 13 Nov 2025 12:00 | $3.01 | $3.11 | +3.09% | SIDEWAYS | 11 | signal |
| 12 Nov 2025 01:00 | 12 Nov 2025 01:00 | $3.11 | $3.11 | -0.19% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 09 Nov 2025 14:00 | 10 Nov 2025 17:00 | $3.08 | $3.25 | +5.45% | SIDEWAYS | 28 | signal |
| 09 Nov 2025 01:00 | 09 Nov 2025 01:00 | $3.07 | $3.07 | -0.19% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 07 Nov 2025 19:00 | 07 Nov 2025 20:00 | $3.18 | $3.22 | +1.03% | SIDEWAYS | 2 | signal |
| 07 Nov 2025 01:00 | 07 Nov 2025 06:00 | $2.88 | $3.12 | +8.38% | SIDEWAYS | 6 | exit_fp |
| 04 Nov 2025 23:00 | 06 Nov 2025 06:00 | $2.56 | $2.62 | +2.17% | SIDEWAYS | 32 | trail |
| 04 Nov 2025 08:00 | 04 Nov 2025 10:00 | $2.69 | $2.76 | +2.52% | SIDEWAYS | 3 | signal |
| 02 Nov 2025 16:00 | 02 Nov 2025 23:00 | $3.31 | $3.38 | +1.80% | SIDEWAYS | 8 | signal |
| 30 Oct 2025 20:00 | 01 Nov 2025 20:00 | $3.14 | $3.32 | +5.47% | SIDEWAYS | 49 | signal |
| 30 Oct 2025 05:00 | 30 Oct 2025 06:00 | $3.37 | $3.38 | +0.08% | SIDEWAYS | 2 | signal |
| 28 Oct 2025 21:00 | 29 Oct 2025 11:00 | $3.33 | $3.42 | +2.38% | SIDEWAYS | 15 | exit_fp |
| 24 Oct 2025 22:00 | 26 Oct 2025 16:00 | $3.30 | $3.60 | +9.04% | SIDEWAYS | 43 | signal |
| 22 Oct 2025 22:00 | 23 Oct 2025 17:00 | $3.15 | $3.32 | +5.27% | SIDEWAYS | 20 | exit_fp |
| 22 Oct 2025 07:00 | 22 Oct 2025 09:00 | $3.23 | $3.25 | +0.37% | SIDEWAYS | 3 | signal |
| 21 Oct 2025 04:00 | 21 Oct 2025 14:00 | $3.12 | $3.30 | +5.53% | SIDEWAYS | 11 | exit_fp |
| 20 Oct 2025 01:00 | 20 Oct 2025 06:00 | $3.16 | $3.31 | +4.51% | SIDEWAYS | 6 | exit_fp |
| 17 Oct 2025 08:00 | 19 Oct 2025 08:00 | $2.99 | $3.15 | +4.94% | SIDEWAYS | 49 | trail |
| 15 Oct 2025 22:00 | 15 Oct 2025 23:00 | $3.48 | $3.52 | +1.07% | SIDEWAYS | 2 | signal |
| 13 Oct 2025 12:00 | 14 Oct 2025 00:00 | $3.73 | $3.90 | +4.52% | SIDEWAYS | 13 | signal |
| 11 Oct 2025 13:00 | 12 Oct 2025 15:00 | $3.74 | $3.90 | +4.16% | BULL | 27 | exit_fp |
| 10 Oct 2025 20:00 | 10 Oct 2025 21:00 | $4.55 | $4.05 | -11.35% | BULL | 2 | stop |
Start Trading Aptos Smarter
These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time APT signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.
81.4% Win Rate
Sharpe 11.46
334 Trades
Free Plan Available
