Cosmos (ATOM) Backtest
Walk-forward validated backtest results for Cosmos. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.
Model 2.5.8.3
•
2 Walk-Forward Folds
•
May 2020 – Apr 2026
•
$1.7640 (-2.27%)
Cosmos (ATOM) powers the Cosmos ecosystem, enabling independent blockchains to communicate through the Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol. ATOM is used for staking, governance, and securing the Cosmos Hub. Price movements are driven by ecosystem growth, new chain launches via the Cosmos SDK, and staking dynamics. Its mid-cap volatility provides consistent trading opportunities across market regimes.
Performance Overview
Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.
Sharpe Ratio
12.40
Win Rate
86.8%
Max Drawdown
-9.4%
Total Trades
558
Sortino Ratio
13.19
Profit Factor
39.36
Exposure
38.1%
Beats B&H
2/2
Equity Curve
Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each fold starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.
Regime Breakdown
Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.
| Regime | Trades | Win Rate | Avg PnL | Profit Factor | Avg Bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUBBLE | 349 | 84.9% | +4.46% | 37.39 | 17.8 |
| BULL | 105 | 90.7% | +6.00% | 21.95 | 33.2 |
| SIDEWAYS | 548 | 86.4% | +3.82% | 54.56 | 18.2 |
| BEAR | 114 | 93.9% | +3.78% | 12.36 | 15.3 |
Per-Fold Results
Each fold is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.
| Fold | Period | Sharpe | Return | MaxDD | Win Rate | Trades | B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May '20 – Apr '24 | 12.26 | 1,140,786,866x | -9.4% | 85.3% | 802 | Yes |
| 2 | Apr '24 – Apr '26 | 12.55 | 1,735x | -8.2% | 88.2% | 314 | Yes |
Trade Log
Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Dec 2025 – Apr 2026).
Compound Return
+142.7%
Win Rate
88.0%
44W / 6L
Max Drawdown
-2.0%
€10,000 Invested
€24,273
2.4x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
| Entry | Exit | Entry Price | Exit Price | PnL | Regime | Bars | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2026 08:00 | 13 Apr 2026 12:00 | $1.71 | $1.74 | +1.38% | BEAR | 5 | exit_fp |
| 09 Apr 2026 01:00 | 09 Apr 2026 15:00 | $1.78 | $1.82 | +2.11% | BEAR | 15 | exit_fp |
| 07 Apr 2026 04:00 | 08 Apr 2026 09:00 | $1.70 | $1.79 | +5.06% | BEAR | 30 | trail |
| 05 Apr 2026 10:00 | 06 Apr 2026 15:00 | $1.69 | $1.73 | +2.37% | BEAR | 30 | trail |
| 04 Apr 2026 00:00 | 04 Apr 2026 20:00 | $1.69 | $1.70 | +0.74% | BEAR | 21 | trail |
| 02 Apr 2026 13:00 | 03 Apr 2026 10:00 | $1.62 | $1.71 | +5.03% | BEAR | 22 | trail |
| 31 Mar 2026 07:00 | 01 Apr 2026 00:00 | $1.70 | $1.71 | +0.34% | BEAR | 18 | signal |
| 29 Mar 2026 14:00 | 30 Mar 2026 18:00 | $1.64 | $1.67 | +1.72% | BEAR | 29 | trail |
| 24 Mar 2026 19:00 | 25 Mar 2026 08:00 | $1.77 | $1.79 | +1.05% | BEAR | 14 | signal |
| 23 Mar 2026 01:00 | 23 Mar 2026 12:00 | $1.78 | $1.83 | +2.67% | BEAR | 12 | exit_fp |
| 20 Mar 2026 14:00 | 21 Mar 2026 08:00 | $1.80 | $1.85 | +2.52% | BEAR | 19 | signal |
| 16 Mar 2026 01:00 | 17 Mar 2026 00:00 | $1.87 | $1.98 | +5.51% | BEAR | 24 | signal |
| 14 Mar 2026 07:00 | 14 Mar 2026 16:00 | $1.86 | $1.88 | +0.61% | BEAR | 10 | signal |
| 12 Mar 2026 13:00 | 13 Mar 2026 14:00 | $1.83 | $1.88 | +2.92% | BEAR | 26 | exit_fp |
| 11 Mar 2026 08:00 | 12 Mar 2026 00:00 | $1.83 | $1.84 | +0.57% | BEAR | 17 | signal |
| 09 Mar 2026 23:00 | 10 Mar 2026 19:00 | $1.74 | $1.79 | +2.31% | BEAR | 21 | trail |
| 09 Mar 2026 01:00 | 09 Mar 2026 10:00 | $1.71 | $1.74 | +1.03% | BEAR | 10 | trail |
| 03 Mar 2026 11:00 | 04 Mar 2026 08:00 | $1.80 | $1.89 | +4.91% | BEAR | 22 | exit_fp |
| 01 Mar 2026 20:00 | 02 Mar 2026 10:00 | $1.77 | $1.80 | +1.36% | BEAR | 15 | trail |
| 28 Feb 2026 09:00 | 01 Mar 2026 01:00 | $1.78 | $1.86 | +4.00% | BEAR | 17 | exit_fp |
| 26 Feb 2026 17:00 | 27 Feb 2026 08:00 | $1.84 | $1.93 | +4.47% | BEAR | 16 | exit_fp |
| 24 Feb 2026 21:00 | 25 Feb 2026 05:00 | $2.00 | $2.05 | +2.02% | BEAR | 9 | trail |
| 20 Feb 2026 11:00 | 21 Feb 2026 01:00 | $2.31 | $2.38 | +2.69% | BEAR | 15 | signal |
| 17 Feb 2026 22:00 | 18 Feb 2026 12:00 | $2.24 | $2.28 | +1.51% | BEAR | 15 | trail |
| 15 Feb 2026 13:00 | 17 Feb 2026 06:00 | $2.10 | $2.29 | +8.81% | BEAR | 42 | signal |
| 13 Feb 2026 01:00 | 14 Feb 2026 06:00 | $1.96 | $2.11 | +7.30% | BEAR | 30 | trail |
| 10 Feb 2026 13:00 | 12 Feb 2026 12:00 | $1.92 | $1.98 | +3.06% | BEAR | 48 | trail |
| 06 Feb 2026 01:00 | 07 Feb 2026 03:00 | $1.82 | $2.01 | +10.20% | BEAR | 27 | exit_fp |
| 03 Feb 2026 18:00 | 04 Feb 2026 03:00 | $1.89 | $2.08 | +9.94% | BEAR | 10 | exit_fp |
| 02 Feb 2026 15:00 | 02 Feb 2026 22:00 | $1.99 | $1.99 | -0.50% | SIDEWAYS | 8 | signal |
| 31 Jan 2026 15:00 | 01 Feb 2026 21:00 | $1.99 | $1.90 | -4.92% | SIDEWAYS | 31 | stop |
| 27 Jan 2026 10:00 | 28 Jan 2026 10:00 | $2.21 | $2.27 | +2.36% | SIDEWAYS | 25 | exit_fp |
| 26 Jan 2026 21:00 | 26 Jan 2026 21:00 | $2.23 | $2.23 | -0.25% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 20 Jan 2026 22:00 | 21 Jan 2026 12:00 | $2.30 | $2.35 | +1.99% | SIDEWAYS | 15 | trail |
| 19 Jan 2026 00:00 | 20 Jan 2026 00:00 | $2.35 | $2.45 | +3.74% | SIDEWAYS | 25 | signal |
| 16 Jan 2026 18:00 | 17 Jan 2026 14:00 | $2.44 | $2.58 | +5.55% | SIDEWAYS | 21 | exit_fp |
| 16 Jan 2026 05:00 | 16 Jan 2026 05:00 | $2.48 | $2.48 | -0.25% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 12 Jan 2026 22:00 | 14 Jan 2026 00:00 | $2.52 | $2.66 | +5.38% | SIDEWAYS | 27 | signal |
| 09 Jan 2026 08:00 | 10 Jan 2026 01:00 | $2.44 | $2.60 | +6.08% | SIDEWAYS | 18 | signal |
| 08 Jan 2026 13:00 | 08 Jan 2026 17:00 | $2.47 | $2.45 | -0.98% | SIDEWAYS | 5 | signal |
| 06 Jan 2026 09:00 | 06 Jan 2026 11:00 | $2.38 | $2.42 | +1.64% | SIDEWAYS | 3 | signal |
| 05 Jan 2026 10:00 | 05 Jan 2026 15:00 | $2.27 | $2.36 | +3.39% | SIDEWAYS | 6 | signal |
| 04 Jan 2026 05:00 | 04 Jan 2026 21:00 | $2.27 | $2.33 | +2.48% | SIDEWAYS | 17 | signal |
| 03 Jan 2026 16:00 | 03 Jan 2026 16:00 | $2.24 | $2.24 | -0.25% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 02 Jan 2026 11:00 | 03 Jan 2026 03:00 | $2.10 | $2.24 | +6.25% | SIDEWAYS | 17 | exit_fp |
| 31 Dec 2025 18:00 | 01 Jan 2026 22:00 | $1.91 | $2.07 | +8.11% | SIDEWAYS | 29 | take_profit |
| 26 Dec 2025 01:00 | 26 Dec 2025 11:00 | $1.97 | $2.03 | +2.53% | BEAR | 11 | trail |
| 24 Dec 2025 22:00 | 25 Dec 2025 08:00 | $1.98 | $2.01 | +1.06% | BEAR | 11 | signal |
| 23 Dec 2025 08:00 | 24 Dec 2025 02:00 | $1.92 | $1.96 | +1.67% | BEAR | 19 | trail |
| 21 Dec 2025 14:00 | 22 Dec 2025 19:00 | $1.91 | $1.96 | +1.94% | BEAR | 30 | trail |
Start Trading Cosmos Smarter
These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time ATOM signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.
86.8% Win Rate
Sharpe 12.40
558 Trades
Free Plan Available
