Avalanche (AVAX) Backtest
Walk-forward validated backtest results for Avalanche. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.
Model 2.5.8.3
•
1 Walk-Forward Fold
•
Apr 2024 – Apr 2026
•
$9.2000 (-2.13%)
Avalanche (AVAX) is a Layer 1 blockchain known for sub-second transaction finality and low fees. Its unique subnet architecture allows custom blockchain deployment, attracting both DeFi projects and enterprise users. AVAX price correlates with broader DeFi trends while responding to subnet launches and institutional partnerships. The asset shows strong trending behavior during risk-on periods.
Performance Overview
Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.
Sharpe Ratio
12.34
Win Rate
87.7%
Max Drawdown
-7.5%
Total Trades
325
Sortino Ratio
13.28
Profit Factor
29.22
Exposure
37.0%
Beats B&H
1/1
Equity Curve
Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each fold starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.
Regime Breakdown
Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.
| Regime | Trades | Win Rate | Avg PnL | Profit Factor | Avg Bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUBBLE | 101 | 78.2% | +3.47% | 34.81 | 14.6 |
| BULL | 45 | 91.1% | +5.75% | 16.63 | 29.6 |
| SIDEWAYS | 139 | 92.8% | +4.36% | 42.60 | 21.2 |
| BEAR | 40 | 90.0% | +3.10% | 21.82 | 20.2 |
Trade Log
Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Dec 2025 – Apr 2026).
Compound Return
+165.5%
Win Rate
90.0%
45W / 5L
Max Drawdown
-1.7%
€10,000 Invested
€26,549
2.7x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
| Entry | Exit | Entry Price | Exit Price | PnL | Regime | Bars | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2026 17:00 | 14 Apr 2026 02:00 | $9.27 | $9.50 | +2.21% | BEAR | 10 | trail |
| 12 Apr 2026 14:00 | 13 Apr 2026 04:00 | $8.98 | $9.06 | +0.68% | BEAR | 15 | trail |
| 09 Apr 2026 00:00 | 09 Apr 2026 13:00 | $8.97 | $9.08 | +1.00% | BEAR | 14 | trail |
| 07 Apr 2026 00:00 | 07 Apr 2026 23:00 | $8.83 | $9.42 | +6.56% | BEAR | 24 | exit_fp |
| 05 Apr 2026 13:00 | 06 Apr 2026 00:00 | $8.81 | $9.42 | +6.71% | BEAR | 12 | signal |
| 04 Apr 2026 05:00 | 05 Apr 2026 00:00 | $8.87 | $9.00 | +1.31% | BEAR | 20 | signal |
| 02 Apr 2026 13:00 | 03 Apr 2026 16:00 | $8.69 | $9.11 | +4.74% | BEAR | 28 | exit_fp |
| 31 Mar 2026 22:00 | 01 Apr 2026 08:00 | $8.88 | $9.25 | +4.03% | BEAR | 11 | signal |
| 31 Mar 2026 06:00 | 31 Mar 2026 09:00 | $8.95 | $8.74 | -2.61% | BEAR | 4 | stop |
| 29 Mar 2026 17:00 | 30 Mar 2026 17:00 | $8.61 | $8.89 | +2.97% | BEAR | 25 | trail |
| 25 Mar 2026 03:00 | 25 Mar 2026 10:00 | $9.62 | $9.71 | +0.84% | BEAR | 8 | signal |
| 22 Mar 2026 19:00 | 24 Mar 2026 13:00 | $8.98 | $9.53 | +5.95% | BEAR | 43 | trail |
| 16 Mar 2026 04:00 | 16 Mar 2026 20:00 | $10.42 | $10.33 | -1.02% | BEAR | 17 | signal |
| 14 Mar 2026 09:00 | 15 Mar 2026 15:00 | $9.56 | $9.74 | +1.66% | BEAR | 31 | trail |
| 11 Mar 2026 23:00 | 13 Mar 2026 12:00 | $9.55 | $10.10 | +5.58% | BEAR | 38 | exit_fp |
| 08 Mar 2026 19:00 | 10 Mar 2026 12:00 | $8.96 | $9.44 | +5.09% | BEAR | 42 | trail |
| 03 Mar 2026 10:00 | 04 Mar 2026 17:00 | $8.98 | $9.61 | +6.81% | BEAR | 32 | signal |
| 01 Mar 2026 18:00 | 02 Mar 2026 16:00 | $9.04 | $9.37 | +3.52% | BEAR | 23 | exit_fp |
| 28 Feb 2026 07:00 | 01 Mar 2026 02:00 | $8.63 | $9.35 | +8.28% | BEAR | 20 | exit_fp |
| 26 Feb 2026 17:00 | 26 Feb 2026 20:00 | $9.12 | $9.26 | +1.34% | BEAR | 4 | signal |
| 24 Feb 2026 15:00 | 25 Feb 2026 20:00 | $8.33 | $9.68 | +16.06% | BEAR | 30 | signal |
| 19 Feb 2026 01:00 | 20 Feb 2026 11:00 | $8.90 | $9.15 | +2.55% | BEAR | 35 | trail |
| 15 Feb 2026 19:00 | 15 Feb 2026 22:00 | $9.18 | $9.28 | +0.90% | BEAR | 4 | signal |
| 13 Feb 2026 01:00 | 14 Feb 2026 09:00 | $8.86 | $9.25 | +4.19% | BEAR | 33 | signal |
| 11 Feb 2026 09:00 | 12 Feb 2026 12:00 | $8.52 | $8.84 | +3.51% | BEAR | 28 | trail |
| 09 Feb 2026 10:00 | 09 Feb 2026 20:00 | $8.75 | $9.09 | +3.71% | BEAR | 11 | signal |
| 06 Feb 2026 01:00 | 06 Feb 2026 16:00 | $8.45 | $9.25 | +9.30% | BEAR | 16 | exit_fp |
| 03 Feb 2026 17:00 | 03 Feb 2026 19:00 | $9.74 | $9.95 | +1.99% | BEAR | 3 | signal |
| 02 Feb 2026 01:00 | 02 Feb 2026 03:00 | $10.06 | $9.85 | -2.28% | BEAR | 3 | regime_exit |
| 31 Jan 2026 15:00 | 31 Jan 2026 23:00 | $10.16 | $10.11 | -0.65% | SIDEWAYS | 9 | exit_fp |
| 25 Jan 2026 20:00 | 27 Jan 2026 10:00 | $11.35 | $11.67 | +2.61% | SIDEWAYS | 39 | trail |
| 21 Jan 2026 01:00 | 21 Jan 2026 21:00 | $12.25 | $12.61 | +2.77% | SIDEWAYS | 21 | exit_fp |
| 16 Jan 2026 17:00 | 17 Jan 2026 14:00 | $13.41 | $13.90 | +3.49% | SIDEWAYS | 22 | exit_fp |
| 14 Jan 2026 14:00 | 14 Jan 2026 14:00 | $14.61 | $14.61 | -0.16% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 12 Jan 2026 15:00 | 14 Jan 2026 00:00 | $13.86 | $14.74 | +6.18% | SIDEWAYS | 34 | signal |
| 11 Jan 2026 23:00 | 12 Jan 2026 02:00 | $13.68 | $14.04 | +2.47% | SIDEWAYS | 4 | signal |
| 03 Jan 2026 16:00 | 05 Jan 2026 00:00 | $13.91 | $14.30 | +2.64% | SIDEWAYS | 33 | signal |
| 02 Jan 2026 08:00 | 03 Jan 2026 03:00 | $13.43 | $14.25 | +5.94% | SIDEWAYS | 20 | exit_fp |
| 01 Jan 2026 01:00 | 01 Jan 2026 19:00 | $12.31 | $13.52 | +9.65% | SIDEWAYS | 19 | take_profit |
| 30 Dec 2025 01:00 | 31 Dec 2025 00:00 | $12.37 | $12.52 | +1.05% | SIDEWAYS | 24 | signal |
| 27 Dec 2025 10:00 | 27 Dec 2025 16:00 | $12.44 | $12.56 | +0.80% | SIDEWAYS | 7 | signal |
| 26 Dec 2025 01:00 | 26 Dec 2025 08:00 | $12.33 | $12.45 | +0.81% | BEAR | 8 | signal |
| 24 Dec 2025 06:00 | 25 Dec 2025 10:00 | $11.98 | $12.14 | +1.12% | BEAR | 29 | trail |
| 23 Dec 2025 15:00 | 23 Dec 2025 16:00 | $11.95 | $12.05 | +0.68% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 20 Dec 2025 12:00 | 23 Dec 2025 00:00 | $12.28 | $12.46 | +1.30% | BEAR | 61 | signal |
| 19 Dec 2025 01:00 | 19 Dec 2025 23:00 | $11.33 | $12.25 | +7.95% | SIDEWAYS | 23 | take_profit |
| 16 Dec 2025 14:00 | 17 Dec 2025 00:00 | $12.18 | $12.32 | +0.99% | SIDEWAYS | 11 | signal |
| 11 Dec 2025 15:00 | 12 Dec 2025 02:00 | $13.02 | $13.70 | +5.05% | SIDEWAYS | 12 | exit_fp |
| 08 Dec 2025 10:00 | 10 Dec 2025 00:00 | $13.81 | $14.59 | +5.48% | SIDEWAYS | 39 | signal |
| 06 Dec 2025 09:00 | 07 Dec 2025 18:00 | $13.28 | $13.77 | +3.56% | SIDEWAYS | 34 | exit_fp |
Start Trading Avalanche Smarter
These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time AVAX signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.
87.7% Win Rate
Sharpe 12.34
325 Trades
Free Plan Available
