ALICEALICEMy Neighbor Alice$0.130400+28.09%
24h High$0.16
24h Low$0.10
Volume$8.7M
Updated14:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / ALICE
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

ALICE My Neighbor Alice (ALICE) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for ALICE - My Neighbor Alice. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Apr 2024 → May 2026 across 1 walk-forward cycle (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 874 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $555,275. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 1 Walk-Forward Cycle • Apr 2024 – May 2026 • $0.130400 (+28.09%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

My Neighbor Alice (ALICE) is a multiplayer social game built on blockchain, where players own virtual islands, build, and trade in-game assets. Listed via Binance Launchpad in March 2021 with multi-cycle history including the 2021 gaming-NFT boom. Price action correlates with broader gaming-NFT cycles and periodic in-game-event catalysts.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Trade Log All Backtests View ALICE Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
4.07
Sortino Ratio
5.18
Profit Factor
2.09
Calmar Ratio
50.12
Win Rate
44.7%
Max Drawdown
-11.8%
Avg Drawdown
-11.77%
Alpha vs B&H
+14,517.9pp
Total Trades
874
Exposure
59.4%
Beats B&H
1/1
Cycles
1
ALICE

ALICE Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
-1.5%
14t
+27.6%
33t
-5.4%
37t
+54.0%
38t
+25.2%
31t
+17.1%
33t
+2.4%
27t
+44.4%
35t
+55.6%
42t
 +517.5%
2025 +25.9%
26t
 		+56.5%
43t
 		+15.1%
39t
 		+96.7%
42t
 		+28.9%
41t
 		+33.9%
40t
 		+35.1%
37t
 		+36.3%
28t
 		+3.1%
29t
 		+93.3%
45t
 		+54.5%
34t
 		-2.2%
33t
 		+4,173.4%
2026 +41.0%
36t
 		+25.9%
26t
 		+23.3%
32t
 		+11.7%
28t
+8.0%
25t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +163.9%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +5,452.8% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 874 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +3.48% on 12 trades, WR 92%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for ALICE over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 12 91.7% +3.48% 113.86 9.5
BULL 42 69.1% +2.83% 7.40 11.9
BEAR 283 56.2% +1.33% 3.28 15.7

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Apr 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+11.5%
Win Rate
42.0%
21W / 29L
Max Drawdown
-5.2%
€10,000 Invested
€11,155
1.1x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
20 May 2026 10:00 20 May 2026 15:00 $0.12890 $0.13030 +0.67% NEUTRAL 6 signal
19 May 2026 14:00 20 May 2026 03:00 $0.12920 $0.13080 +0.82% NEUTRAL 14 signal
19 May 2026 09:00 19 May 2026 11:00 $0.13140 $0.13020 -1.46% CRASH 3 stop
19 May 2026 01:00 19 May 2026 08:00 $0.13550 $0.13420 -1.46% CRASH 8 stop
18 May 2026 00:00 18 May 2026 18:00 $0.12600 $0.13770 +8.84% NEUTRAL 19 exit_fp
17 May 2026 02:00 17 May 2026 23:00 $0.13050 $0.12930 -1.46% BEAR 22 stop
15 May 2026 14:00 16 May 2026 23:00 $0.13350 $0.13220 -1.46% NEUTRAL 34 stop
14 May 2026 08:00 15 May 2026 13:00 $0.13880 $0.13750 -1.46% BEAR 30 stop
13 May 2026 15:00 14 May 2026 07:00 $0.14000 $0.13870 -1.46% NEUTRAL 17 stop
13 May 2026 12:00 13 May 2026 14:00 $0.14510 $0.14370 -1.46% BEAR 3 stop
12 May 2026 16:00 12 May 2026 19:00 $0.14410 $0.14580 +0.77% NEUTRAL 4 signal
12 May 2026 02:00 12 May 2026 11:00 $0.14700 $0.14560 -1.46% NEUTRAL 10 stop
10 May 2026 21:00 11 May 2026 12:00 $0.14880 $0.14860 -0.54% NEUTRAL 16 signal
09 May 2026 23:00 10 May 2026 03:00 $0.14960 $0.14940 -0.54% NEUTRAL 5 signal
09 May 2026 13:00 09 May 2026 20:00 $0.15190 $0.15050 -1.46% NEUTRAL 8 stop
07 May 2026 17:00 09 May 2026 01:00 $0.14360 $0.14970 +3.82% BULL 33 exit_fp
07 May 2026 10:00 07 May 2026 16:00 $0.13970 $0.14360 +2.37% BEAR 7 exit_fp
06 May 2026 23:00 07 May 2026 06:00 $0.13690 $0.14140 +2.86% CRASH 8 signal
04 May 2026 01:00 05 May 2026 04:00 $0.14590 $0.15090 +3.00% BULL 28 signal
03 May 2026 18:00 04 May 2026 00:00 $0.14820 $0.14680 -1.46% NEUTRAL 7 stop
03 May 2026 10:00 03 May 2026 15:00 $0.14780 $0.14810 -0.21% NEUTRAL 6 signal
01 May 2026 18:00 03 May 2026 07:00 $0.14840 $0.14700 -1.46% NEUTRAL 38 stop
01 May 2026 13:00 01 May 2026 17:00 $0.15070 $0.14930 -1.46% BULL 5 stop
01 May 2026 05:00 01 May 2026 10:00 $0.14700 $0.15180 +2.84% NEUTRAL 6 signal
29 Apr 2026 16:00 01 May 2026 01:00 $0.14510 $0.14750 +1.24% NEUTRAL 34 signal
29 Apr 2026 09:00 29 Apr 2026 15:00 $0.14770 $0.14630 -1.46% BEAR 7 stop
25 Apr 2026 14:00 25 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.15970 $0.16110 +0.46% BEAR 9 signal
24 Apr 2026 07:00 24 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.14670 $0.14510 -1.50% NEUTRAL 3 signal
23 Apr 2026 01:00 24 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.14800 $0.14850 -0.07% NEUTRAL 24 signal
22 Apr 2026 01:00 23 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.14990 $0.14850 -1.46% BEAR 24 stop
21 Apr 2026 12:00 21 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.15370 $0.15230 -1.46% CRASH 12 stop
21 Apr 2026 05:00 21 Apr 2026 11:00 $0.15980 $0.15830 -1.46% CRASH 7 stop
20 Apr 2026 15:00 20 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.16380 $0.16230 -1.46% BEAR 5 stop
20 Apr 2026 07:00 20 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.16280 $0.16770 +2.59% BEAR 6 exit_fp
19 Apr 2026 06:00 20 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.14560 $0.15430 +5.54% CRASH 19 exit_fp
19 Apr 2026 03:00 19 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.15410 $0.15260 -1.46% CRASH 3 stop
19 Apr 2026 02:00 19 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.15980 $0.15830 -1.46% BEAR 1 stop
19 Apr 2026 00:00 19 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.16620 $0.16460 -1.46% BEAR 2 stop
18 Apr 2026 19:00 18 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.17600 $0.17430 -1.46% BEAR 5 stop
18 Apr 2026 16:00 18 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.19290 $0.19110 -1.46% BEAR 3 stop
17 Apr 2026 06:00 17 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.11840 $0.12210 +2.70% NEUTRAL 4 signal
16 Apr 2026 00:00 16 Apr 2026 07:00 $0.11320 $0.11700 +2.93% BEAR 8 exit_fp
15 Apr 2026 19:00 15 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.11520 $0.11410 -1.46% CRASH 5 stop
12 Apr 2026 17:00 14 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.10820 $0.11230 +3.36% BEAR 44 signal
10 Apr 2026 01:00 11 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.11310 $0.11400 +0.38% BEAR 42 signal
09 Apr 2026 01:00 09 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.11180 $0.11580 +3.15% CRASH 8 signal
08 Apr 2026 12:00 08 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.11400 $0.11290 -1.46% BEAR 3 stop
07 Apr 2026 17:00 07 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.10840 $0.11470 +5.38% BEAR 6 exit_fp
07 Apr 2026 02:00 07 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.10810 $0.10930 +0.70% CRASH 4 signal
05 Apr 2026 22:00 06 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.10730 $0.11150 +3.49% BEAR 15 signal

Start Trading My Neighbor Alice Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time ALICE signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

Get Started → ALICE Signals → View Plans →
44.7% Win Rate Sharpe 4.07 874 Trades -11.8% Max Drawdown