APEAPEApeCoin$0.137000+4.74%
24h High$0.14
24h Low$0.13
Volume$1.9M
Updated14:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / APE
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

APE ApeCoin (APE) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for APE - ApeCoin. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Apr 2024 → May 2026 across 1 walk-forward cycle (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 976 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $314,252. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 1 Walk-Forward Cycle • Apr 2024 – May 2026 • $0.137000 (+4.74%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

ApeCoin (APE) powers governance and utility across the Bored Ape Yacht Club ecosystem and ApeChain. Strong correlation with broader NFT cycles, with periodic catalysts from ApeCoin DAO proposals and BAYC-collection trends. Multi-year history makes it a robust training target.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Trade Log All Backtests View APE Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
3.37
Sortino Ratio
4.12
Profit Factor
2.02
Calmar Ratio
39.86
Win Rate
49.0%
Max Drawdown
-10.7%
Avg Drawdown
-10.66%
Alpha vs B&H
+11,935.6pp
Total Trades
976
Exposure
57.3%
Beats B&H
1/1
Cycles
1
APE

APE Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
+1.8%
8t
+25.9%
37t
+11.3%
36t
+39.4%
46t
+32.8%
47t
+37.3%
34t
+53.5%
45t
+42.0%
34t
+40.5%
39t
 +1,011.1%
2025
+18.0%
45t
+33.2%
43t
+54.0%
48t
+13.8%
33t
+7.0%
39t
+23.8%
30t
+9.4%
44t
+19.9%
34t
+12.9%
27t
+46.3%
37t
+14.3%
43t
+17.7%
41t
 +963.1%
2026
+4.3%
40t
+11.5%
37t
+6.4%
42t
+142.6%
51t
+4.8%
16t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +214.5%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +3,042.5% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 976 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +4.55% on 17 trades, WR 100%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for APE over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 17 100.0% +4.55% 0.00 13.1
BULL 51 74.5% +2.30% 8.33 14.2
BEAR 377 56.5% +0.81% 2.54 10.5

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Apr 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+53.8%
Win Rate
46.0%
23W / 27L
Max Drawdown
-5.9%
€10,000 Invested
€15,384
1.5x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
19 May 2026 11:00 20 May 2026 06:00 $0.14050 $0.14590 +3.42% NEUTRAL 20 exit_fp
18 May 2026 06:00 19 May 2026 00:00 $0.14380 $0.14520 +0.56% NEUTRAL 19 exit_fp
16 May 2026 11:00 16 May 2026 13:00 $0.13950 $0.14170 +1.16% BEAR 3 signal
15 May 2026 14:00 15 May 2026 17:00 $0.14230 $0.14480 +1.34% CRASH 4 signal
09 May 2026 14:00 10 May 2026 14:00 $0.16280 $0.16130 -1.46% NEUTRAL 25 stop
09 May 2026 01:00 09 May 2026 12:00 $0.16690 $0.16530 -1.46% BULL 12 stop
08 May 2026 13:00 08 May 2026 23:00 $0.16350 $0.16480 +0.38% BULL 11 signal
08 May 2026 01:00 08 May 2026 08:00 $0.16690 $0.16530 -1.46% NEUTRAL 8 stop
07 May 2026 02:00 07 May 2026 18:00 $0.15400 $0.16140 +4.38% NEUTRAL 17 exit_fp
06 May 2026 05:00 06 May 2026 20:00 $0.15740 $0.16120 +2.00% BULL 16 signal
04 May 2026 21:00 05 May 2026 02:00 $0.16360 $0.16210 -1.46% BEAR 6 stop
04 May 2026 16:00 04 May 2026 20:00 $0.16630 $0.16470 -1.46% BEAR 5 stop
03 May 2026 22:00 04 May 2026 04:00 $0.16700 $0.16860 +0.55% NEUTRAL 7 signal
03 May 2026 19:00 03 May 2026 21:00 $0.16840 $0.16680 -1.46% BEAR 3 stop
01 May 2026 05:00 01 May 2026 11:00 $0.15980 $0.15830 -1.46% BEAR 7 stop
30 Apr 2026 23:00 01 May 2026 01:00 $0.15840 $0.16120 +1.35% BEAR 3 signal
30 Apr 2026 12:00 30 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.15500 $0.16280 +4.60% BEAR 8 exit_fp
30 Apr 2026 03:00 30 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.14850 $0.16080 +7.84% BEAR 3 signal
29 Apr 2026 22:00 30 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.14920 $0.14780 -1.46% BEAR 5 stop
29 Apr 2026 09:00 29 Apr 2026 21:00 $0.15060 $0.14920 -1.33% CRASH 13 exit_fp
29 Apr 2026 03:00 29 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.15400 $0.15250 -1.46% CRASH 6 stop
28 Apr 2026 23:00 29 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.15800 $0.15650 -1.46% CRASH 4 stop
28 Apr 2026 17:00 28 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.16650 $0.16490 -1.46% BEAR 6 stop
28 Apr 2026 02:00 28 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.14290 $0.15090 +5.17% BEAR 3 signal
27 Apr 2026 13:00 27 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.14130 $0.14200 +0.08% CRASH 5 signal
26 Apr 2026 18:00 27 Apr 2026 03:00 $0.14590 $0.14940 +1.98% CRASH 10 signal
25 Apr 2026 16:00 26 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.15480 $0.15330 -1.46% CRASH 26 stop
25 Apr 2026 11:00 25 Apr 2026 15:00 $0.16350 $0.16200 -1.46% CRASH 5 stop
25 Apr 2026 09:00 25 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.18090 $0.17920 -1.46% CRASH 2 stop
25 Apr 2026 07:00 25 Apr 2026 08:00 $0.18980 $0.18800 -1.46% BEAR 2 stop
25 Apr 2026 04:00 25 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.20170 $0.19980 -1.46% BEAR 3 stop
25 Apr 2026 02:00 25 Apr 2026 03:00 $0.20720 $0.20520 -1.46% BEAR 2 stop
24 Apr 2026 18:00 25 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.15690 $0.20720 +31.52% BEAR 8 exit_fp
24 Apr 2026 11:00 24 Apr 2026 15:00 $0.11100 $0.17660 +58.45% NEUTRAL 5 exit_fp
24 Apr 2026 04:00 24 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.10390 $0.11100 +6.40% BEAR 7 exit_fp
23 Apr 2026 16:00 24 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.10320 $0.10220 -1.46% BEAR 10 stop
23 Apr 2026 00:00 23 Apr 2026 15:00 $0.09990 $0.10320 +2.88% BEAR 16 exit_fp
22 Apr 2026 19:00 22 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.10390 $0.10290 -1.46% CRASH 5 stop
21 Apr 2026 16:00 22 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.10240 $0.10110 -1.67% BEAR 9 signal
21 Apr 2026 01:00 21 Apr 2026 10:00 $0.10320 $0.10280 -0.79% BEAR 10 signal
19 Apr 2026 08:00 20 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.10080 $0.10260 +1.37% BEAR 30 signal
18 Apr 2026 14:00 19 Apr 2026 07:00 $0.10640 $0.10540 -1.46% CRASH 18 stop
18 Apr 2026 10:00 18 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.10320 $0.10860 +4.80% BEAR 3 signal
17 Apr 2026 06:00 17 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.10040 $0.10430 +3.46% BEAR 8 exit_fp
14 Apr 2026 18:00 15 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.08790 $0.08910 +0.95% BEAR 9 signal
14 Apr 2026 03:00 14 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.08890 $0.08810 -1.46% BEAR 15 stop
13 Apr 2026 23:00 14 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.08980 $0.08900 -1.46% CRASH 4 stop
13 Apr 2026 02:00 13 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.08490 $0.08980 +5.34% BEAR 21 exit_fp
12 Apr 2026 02:00 13 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.08630 $0.08550 -1.46% BEAR 24 stop
11 Apr 2026 15:00 12 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.08800 $0.08720 -1.46% CRASH 11 stop

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49.0% Win Rate Sharpe 3.37 976 Trades -10.7% Max Drawdown