CELOCELOCelo$0.065750-0.06%
24h High$0.07
24h Low$0.06
Volume$864,487
Updated15:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / CELO
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

CELO Celo (CELO) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for CELO - Celo. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Apr 2024 → May 2026 across 1 walk-forward cycle (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 957 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $133,810. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 1 Walk-Forward Cycle • Apr 2024 – May 2026 • $0.065750 (-0.06%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Celo (CELO) is a mobile-first Layer 1 blockchain originally focused on smartphone-accessible stablecoin payments, transitioning to an Ethereum L2 in 2024. Active since 2020 with multi-cycle history. Price tends to respond to emerging-market-payment partnerships, the L2 migration, and broader mobile-crypto narratives.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Trade Log All Backtests View CELO Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
3.04
Sortino Ratio
3.85
Profit Factor
1.71
Calmar Ratio
20.70
Win Rate
44.2%
Max Drawdown
-12.0%
Avg Drawdown
-11.99%
Alpha vs B&H
+10,284.5pp
Total Trades
957
Exposure
63.5%
Beats B&H
1/1
Cycles
1
CELO

CELO Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
-1.7%
9t
+36.8%
33t
+7.7%
43t
+30.9%
38t
+2.9%
37t
+23.7%
31t
+17.3%
34t
+24.2%
29t
+12.8%
40t
 +296.0%
2025 +25.3%
28t
 		+42.7%
42t
 		+37.8%
46t
 		+39.7%
52t
 		+18.6%
38t
 		+10.4%
36t
 		+47.1%
34t
 		+19.4%
34t
 		-8.1%
28t
 		+28.3%
51t
 		+8.4%
45t
 		+15.8%
44t
 		+1,070.6%
2026 +20.5%
43t
 		+19.7%
31t
 		+28.1%
48t
 		+7.0%
44t
+2.5%
19t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +102.6%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +1,238.1% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 957 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +3.03% on 58 trades, WR 72%.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -0.22% on 337 trades, WR 23%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for CELO over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 8 75.0% +2.50% 8.10 13.5
BULL 58 72.4% +3.03% 9.26 16.8
BEAR 488 54.5% +0.65% 2.24 12.3

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Apr 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+3.1%
Win Rate
44.0%
22W / 28L
Max Drawdown
-5.8%
€10,000 Invested
€10,308
1.0x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
18 May 2026 18:00 19 May 2026 19:00 $0.07910 $0.08010 +0.72% BEAR 26 trail
16 May 2026 10:00 18 May 2026 17:00 $0.08240 $0.08160 -1.46% BEAR 56 stop
15 May 2026 14:00 16 May 2026 09:00 $0.08770 $0.08680 -1.46% CRASH 20 stop
14 May 2026 04:00 15 May 2026 13:00 $0.09070 $0.08980 -1.46% CRASH 34 stop
13 May 2026 16:00 14 May 2026 03:00 $0.09200 $0.09110 -1.46% CRASH 12 stop
13 May 2026 13:00 13 May 2026 15:00 $0.09500 $0.09410 -1.46% BEAR 3 stop
12 May 2026 12:00 13 May 2026 12:00 $0.09610 $0.09520 -1.46% NEUTRAL 25 stop
12 May 2026 08:00 12 May 2026 11:00 $0.09720 $0.09620 -1.46% BEAR 4 stop
12 May 2026 02:00 12 May 2026 07:00 $0.09840 $0.09740 -1.46% NEUTRAL 6 stop
10 May 2026 20:00 11 May 2026 05:00 $0.10220 $0.10130 -1.46% BULL 10 stop
10 May 2026 01:00 10 May 2026 16:00 $0.09550 $0.10130 +5.61% NEUTRAL 16 exit_fp
07 May 2026 03:00 08 May 2026 19:00 $0.09260 $0.09690 +4.18% NEUTRAL 41 signal
06 May 2026 12:00 07 May 2026 01:00 $0.09340 $0.09250 -1.46% BULL 14 stop
03 May 2026 22:00 06 May 2026 04:00 $0.08990 $0.09340 +3.39% BULL 55 exit_fp
02 May 2026 18:00 03 May 2026 01:00 $0.09060 $0.08980 -1.46% NEUTRAL 8 stop
02 May 2026 11:00 02 May 2026 13:00 $0.09030 $0.09100 +0.32% BEAR 3 signal
02 May 2026 05:00 02 May 2026 08:00 $0.09000 $0.09090 +0.59% BEAR 4 signal
01 May 2026 23:00 02 May 2026 04:00 $0.08690 $0.09000 +3.19% NEUTRAL 6 exit_fp
29 Apr 2026 19:00 01 May 2026 20:00 $0.08590 $0.08710 +0.98% BEAR 50 signal
29 Apr 2026 14:00 29 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.08760 $0.08680 -1.46% CRASH 5 stop
27 Apr 2026 14:00 29 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.08920 $0.08840 -1.46% BEAR 48 stop
27 Apr 2026 07:00 27 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.08990 $0.08900 -1.46% CRASH 7 stop
26 Apr 2026 14:00 27 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.09210 $0.09130 -1.46% BEAR 17 stop
25 Apr 2026 17:00 26 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.09130 $0.09140 -0.23% CRASH 8 signal
25 Apr 2026 13:00 25 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.09300 $0.09220 -1.46% CRASH 4 stop
25 Apr 2026 00:00 25 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.09420 $0.09540 +0.93% BEAR 3 signal
24 Apr 2026 03:00 24 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.08880 $0.08950 +0.38% BEAR 4 signal
23 Apr 2026 15:00 24 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.08730 $0.08950 +2.10% BEAR 10 exit_fp
23 Apr 2026 02:00 23 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.08440 $0.08730 +3.00% BEAR 13 exit_fp
22 Apr 2026 21:00 23 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.08540 $0.08460 -1.46% BEAR 5 stop
22 Apr 2026 08:00 22 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.08710 $0.08630 -1.46% NEUTRAL 12 stop
20 Apr 2026 15:00 21 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.08400 $0.08320 -1.46% BEAR 29 stop
20 Apr 2026 13:00 20 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.08510 $0.08420 -1.46% CRASH 2 stop
19 Apr 2026 23:00 20 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.08060 $0.08510 +5.14% BEAR 14 exit_fp
19 Apr 2026 12:00 19 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.08350 $0.08270 -1.46% CRASH 11 stop
18 Apr 2026 17:00 19 Apr 2026 11:00 $0.08430 $0.08350 -1.46% BEAR 19 stop
18 Apr 2026 11:00 18 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.08560 $0.08480 -1.46% CRASH 6 stop
18 Apr 2026 02:00 18 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.08690 $0.08880 +1.75% BEAR 5 signal
16 Apr 2026 15:00 16 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.08390 $0.08560 +1.61% BEAR 3 signal
16 Apr 2026 08:00 16 Apr 2026 11:00 $0.08310 $0.08370 +0.30% BEAR 4 signal
15 Apr 2026 23:00 16 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.08230 $0.08330 +0.85% BEAR 3 signal
15 Apr 2026 10:00 15 Apr 2026 21:00 $0.08040 $0.08320 +3.01% BEAR 12 signal
14 Apr 2026 19:00 15 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.07960 $0.08030 +0.53% BEAR 12 signal
14 Apr 2026 08:00 14 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.08020 $0.08130 +0.91% BEAR 6 signal
12 Apr 2026 23:00 14 Apr 2026 07:00 $0.07840 $0.08060 +2.23% BEAR 33 trail
12 Apr 2026 05:00 12 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.07980 $0.07900 -1.46% BEAR 18 stop
11 Apr 2026 18:00 12 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.08250 $0.08170 -1.46% CRASH 11 stop
09 Apr 2026 01:00 11 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.08140 $0.08220 +0.57% BEAR 64 signal
08 Apr 2026 11:00 09 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.08450 $0.08370 -1.46% CRASH 14 stop
08 Apr 2026 04:00 08 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.08490 $0.08450 -0.88% BEAR 6 signal

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44.2% Win Rate Sharpe 3.04 957 Trades -12.0% Max Drawdown