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Modelv6.2 Pythia

OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

Fetch.ai (FET) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for FET - Fetch.ai. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from May 2020 → May 2026 across 2 walk-forward cycles (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 1,771 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $67,509,901. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 2 Walk-Forward Cycles • May 2020 – May 2026 • $0.186500 (-4.51%)

✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

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Fetch.ai (FET) combines artificial intelligence with blockchain to create autonomous economic agents that perform tasks on behalf of users. As an AI-crypto narrative leader, FET price is heavily influenced by AI sector sentiment and technology developments. The token shows strong momentum during AI hype cycles and has distinct trading patterns that diverge from the broader market during narrative shifts.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log All Backtests View FET Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio

3.42

Sortino Ratio

3.57

Profit Factor

2.19

Calmar Ratio

21.92

Win Rate

39.3%

Max Drawdown

-16.5%

Avg Drawdown

-13.68%

Alpha vs B&H

+105,584,605.5pp

Total Trades

886

Exposure

40.6%

Beats B&H

2/2

Sharpe Trend

-0.90

FET Monthly Returns

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year Σ
2020	—	—	—	—	+12.9% 14t	+10.2% 12t	+28.6% 9t	+39.7% 7t	+51.5% 37t	-7.5% 17t	+58.8% 28t	+106.8% 25t	+929.4%
2021	+123.0% 24t	+43.8% 8t	+66.0% 19t	+76.5% 36t	+184.4% 45t	+70.8% 27t	+30.4% 23t	+11.9% 26t	+38.7% 18t	+10.8% 16t	+45.8% 24t	+18.3% 21t	+17,539.8%
2022	+27.5% 24t	+34.8% 13t	+34.7% 20t	+25.7% 28t	+65.0% 30t	+31.5% 43t	+52.5% 40t	+16.7% 28t	+40.4% 32t	+11.6% 26t	+5.1% 25t	+4.0% 13t	+1,821.6%
2023	+14.0% 10t	+26.4% 15t	+2.2% 21t	-9.8% 11t	+3.7% 12t	-5.3% 26t	-7.8% 12t	+3.2% 34t	+7.8% 12t	+10.5% 25t	+45.9% 15t	+7.4% 16t	+131.3%
2024	+22.1% 19t	+13.6% 6t	+23.8% 13t	+42.9% 19t	+34.8% 28t	+48.8% 45t	+7.5% 31t	+64.3% 50t	+27.9% 23t	+6.1% 22t	+51.7% 26t	+71.1% 48t	+2,957.4%
2025	+13.3% 35t	+36.4% 31t	+21.3% 34t	+53.2% 34t	+5.7% 29t	+21.4% 20t	+6.2% 20t	-5.1% 24t	+0.6% 13t	+19.0% 44t	+5.9% 31t	+14.1% 28t	+437.1%
2026	-0.3% 17t	+20.1% 34t	+29.6% 40t	+2.5% 26t	+4.7% 14t	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	+66.4%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights

↑ Exceptional return: +6.75K× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
↓ Low win rate: 39.3% — profits depend on a few large winners.
↓ Large drawdown: -16.5% — expect volatility on capital.
↑ Robust sample: 886 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +3.21% on 171 trades, WR 68%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for FET over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…

▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime	Trades	Win Rate	Avg PnL	Profit Factor	Avg Bars
BUBBLE	171	70.1%	+2.92%	10.38	9.2
BULL	224	47.5%	+2.18%	4.34	14.7
BEAR	544	40.7%	+0.81%	2.00	13.0

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle	Period	Sharpe	Return	MaxDD	Win Rate	Trades	B&H
1	May '20 – Apr '24	3.87	741.1x	-16.5%	40.9%	1020	Yes
2	Apr '24 – May '26	2.97	810%	-10.9%	37.7%	751	Yes

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Mar 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return

+9.4%

Win Rate

30.0%

15W / 35L

Max Drawdown

-7.1%

€10,000 Invested

€10,940

1.1x return

Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.

Entry	Exit	Entry Price	Exit Price	PnL	Regime	Bars	Exit Reason
18 May 2026 11:00	20 May 2026 05:00	$0.18740	$0.19110	+1.43%	NEUTRAL	43	trail
18 May 2026 01:00	18 May 2026 10:00	$0.18940	$0.18760	-1.46%	BEAR	10	stop
17 May 2026 02:00	17 May 2026 23:00	$0.19390	$0.19210	-1.46%	NEUTRAL	22	stop
15 May 2026 14:00	17 May 2026 01:00	$0.20320	$0.20130	-1.46%	BEAR	36	stop
15 May 2026 04:00	15 May 2026 08:00	$0.21310	$0.21110	-1.46%	NEUTRAL	5	stop
14 May 2026 12:00	15 May 2026 01:00	$0.20910	$0.21350	+1.57%	NEUTRAL	14	trail
14 May 2026 01:00	14 May 2026 06:00	$0.21400	$0.21200	-1.46%	BEAR	6	stop
12 May 2026 18:00	13 May 2026 12:00	$0.22300	$0.22090	-1.46%	NEUTRAL	19	stop
12 May 2026 04:00	12 May 2026 13:00	$0.23040	$0.22820	-1.46%	NEUTRAL	10	stop
10 May 2026 21:00	11 May 2026 11:00	$0.23630	$0.23620	-0.45%	BULL	15	signal
07 May 2026 22:00	09 May 2026 02:00	$0.21910	$0.24070	+9.41%	BULL	29	exit_fp
07 May 2026 15:00	07 May 2026 21:00	$0.22200	$0.21990	-1.46%	BEAR	7	stop
04 May 2026 12:00	05 May 2026 13:00	$0.20190	$0.21100	+4.08%	BULL	26	short_signal
29 Apr 2026 16:00	02 May 2026 05:00	$0.19590	$0.19860	+0.84%	NEUTRAL	62	trail
28 Apr 2026 12:00	29 Apr 2026 15:00	$0.19890	$0.19700	-1.46%	BEAR	28	stop
28 Apr 2026 03:00	28 Apr 2026 11:00	$0.20240	$0.20050	-1.46%	CRASH	9	stop
27 Apr 2026 16:00	28 Apr 2026 02:00	$0.20580	$0.20390	-1.46%	BEAR	11	stop
27 Apr 2026 06:00	27 Apr 2026 15:00	$0.20900	$0.20700	-1.46%	CRASH	10	stop
25 Apr 2026 19:00	26 Apr 2026 23:00	$0.20640	$0.21240	+2.49%	NEUTRAL	29	signal
23 Apr 2026 07:00	25 Apr 2026 17:00	$0.20930	$0.20730	-1.46%	BEAR	59	stop
21 Apr 2026 19:00	23 Apr 2026 06:00	$0.20640	$0.21030	+1.38%	CRASH	36	trail
20 Apr 2026 03:00	21 Apr 2026 18:00	$0.20930	$0.20730	-1.46%	BEAR	40	stop
19 Apr 2026 17:00	20 Apr 2026 02:00	$0.21520	$0.21320	-1.46%	CRASH	10	stop
18 Apr 2026 17:00	19 Apr 2026 16:00	$0.21950	$0.21740	-1.46%	BEAR	24	stop
17 Apr 2026 05:00	18 Apr 2026 16:00	$0.23000	$0.22780	-1.46%	CRASH	36	stop
14 Apr 2026 18:00	17 Apr 2026 00:00	$0.23130	$0.23830	+2.61%	NEUTRAL	55	signal
13 Apr 2026 17:00	14 Apr 2026 17:00	$0.23370	$0.23150	-1.46%	BEAR	25	stop
10 Apr 2026 13:00	13 Apr 2026 16:00	$0.23540	$0.23320	-1.46%	NEUTRAL	76	stop
10 Apr 2026 04:00	10 Apr 2026 12:00	$0.23690	$0.23470	-1.46%	CRASH	9	stop
08 Apr 2026 23:00	10 Apr 2026 03:00	$0.24160	$0.23930	-1.46%	BEAR	29	stop
08 Apr 2026 15:00	08 Apr 2026 22:00	$0.24810	$0.24580	-1.46%	CRASH	8	stop
08 Apr 2026 09:00	08 Apr 2026 12:00	$0.25750	$0.25510	-1.46%	BEAR	4	stop
08 Apr 2026 02:00	08 Apr 2026 08:00	$0.24810	$0.25750	+3.36%	BEAR	7	exit_fp
07 Apr 2026 22:00	08 Apr 2026 01:00	$0.24940	$0.24700	-1.46%	BEAR	4	stop
07 Apr 2026 00:00	07 Apr 2026 21:00	$0.22530	$0.24940	+10.24%	NEUTRAL	22	exit_fp
06 Apr 2026 20:00	06 Apr 2026 23:00	$0.23220	$0.23000	-1.46%	CRASH	4	stop
05 Apr 2026 07:00	06 Apr 2026 17:00	$0.22690	$0.23860	+4.63%	NEUTRAL	35	trail
05 Apr 2026 02:00	05 Apr 2026 06:00	$0.23010	$0.22790	-1.46%	CRASH	5	stop
02 Apr 2026 13:00	04 Apr 2026 11:00	$0.22370	$0.23950	+6.63%	NEUTRAL	47	signal
31 Mar 2026 11:00	02 Apr 2026 12:00	$0.22830	$0.22610	-1.46%	BEAR	50	stop
29 Mar 2026 18:00	31 Mar 2026 10:00	$0.23100	$0.22880	-1.46%	NEUTRAL	41	stop
29 Mar 2026 04:00	29 Mar 2026 13:00	$0.24320	$0.24090	-1.46%	BEAR	10	stop
28 Mar 2026 16:00	29 Mar 2026 03:00	$0.24820	$0.24590	-1.46%	BULL	12	stop
27 Mar 2026 22:00	28 Mar 2026 12:00	$0.22840	$0.24360	+6.22%	BULL	15	exit_fp
27 Mar 2026 11:00	27 Mar 2026 21:00	$0.23200	$0.22980	-1.46%	NEUTRAL	11	stop
27 Mar 2026 05:00	27 Mar 2026 10:00	$0.23510	$0.23290	-1.46%	BEAR	6	stop
26 Mar 2026 07:00	27 Mar 2026 02:00	$0.24260	$0.24030	-1.46%	NEUTRAL	20	stop
26 Mar 2026 01:00	26 Mar 2026 05:00	$0.25780	$0.25540	-1.46%	NEUTRAL	5	stop
25 Mar 2026 14:00	25 Mar 2026 19:00	$0.25330	$0.26700	+4.98%	BULL	6	exit_fp
24 Mar 2026 05:00	24 Mar 2026 20:00	$0.22710	$0.24740	+8.49%	BULL	16	exit_fp

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39.3% Win Rate Sharpe 3.42 886 Trades -16.5% Max Drawdown

Fetch.ai (FET) Backtest

Performance Overview

FET Monthly Returns

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Price & trade markers

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

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