MANAMANADecentraland$0.074300+11.39%
24h High$0.08
24h Low$0.07
Volume$1.6M
Updated14:33 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / MANA
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

MANA Decentraland (MANA) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for MANA - Decentraland. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Apr 2024 → May 2026 across 1 walk-forward cycle (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 782 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $178,547. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 1 Walk-Forward Cycle • Apr 2024 – May 2026 • $0.074300 (+11.39%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Decentraland (MANA) is the native token of one of the earliest and most-recognized blockchain-based metaverse platforms. MANA price reacts strongly to gaming + NFT cycles and metaverse-narrative phases. Multi-year deep history.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Trade Log All Backtests View MANA Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
3.22
Sortino Ratio
4.25
Profit Factor
1.75
Calmar Ratio
18.96
Win Rate
38.1%
Max Drawdown
-15.8%
Avg Drawdown
-15.82%
Alpha vs B&H
+9,772.3pp
Total Trades
782
Exposure
67.4%
Beats B&H
1/1
Cycles
1
MANA

MANA Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2024
—
—
—
-2.9%
2t
+5.9%
23t
+12.6%
24t
+36.2%
24t
+17.0%
33t
+11.5%
31t
+12.8%
25t
+56.3%
36t
+40.9%
46t
 +411.3%
2025
+39.8%
40t
+21.2%
28t
+16.9%
35t
+58.6%
34t
+8.3%
29t
+17.6%
31t
+35.7%
39t
+38.6%
27t
-1.9%
29t
+40.3%
40t
-1.2%
31t
-7.0%
36t
 +851.2%
2026
+54.3%
41t
+23.3%
32t
+5.7%
27t
+7.2%
25t
0.0%
14t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +115.4%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +1,685.5% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↓ Low win rate: 38.1% — profits depend on a few large winners.
  • ↓ Large drawdown: -15.8% — expect volatility on capital.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 782 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +2.69% on 76 trades, WR 64%.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -0.56% on 282 trades, WR 14%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for MANA over the latest walk-forward cycle (2024-04-22 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 28 82.1% +1.68% 8.12 11.1
BULL 76 64.5% +2.69% 6.83 15.9
BEAR 260 47.7% +1.12% 2.52 18.0

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Mar 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+4.1%
Win Rate
30.0%
15W / 35L
Max Drawdown
-7.2%
€10,000 Invested
€10,411
1.0x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
16 May 2026 21:00 18 May 2026 02:00 $0.09010 $0.08930 -1.46% CRASH 30 stop
15 May 2026 14:00 16 May 2026 20:00 $0.09210 $0.09120 -1.46% BEAR 31 stop
15 May 2026 06:00 15 May 2026 13:00 $0.09420 $0.09330 -1.46% CRASH 8 stop
13 May 2026 22:00 15 May 2026 05:00 $0.09510 $0.09420 -1.46% BEAR 32 stop
12 May 2026 15:00 13 May 2026 21:00 $0.09720 $0.09630 -1.46% CRASH 31 stop
10 May 2026 15:00 12 May 2026 14:00 $0.09840 $0.09750 -1.46% BEAR 48 stop
09 May 2026 15:00 10 May 2026 10:00 $0.09570 $0.09870 +2.71% NEUTRAL 20 signal
09 May 2026 10:00 09 May 2026 14:00 $0.09710 $0.09620 -1.46% BEAR 5 stop
08 May 2026 22:00 09 May 2026 00:00 $0.09820 $0.09840 -0.21% BEAR 3 signal
07 May 2026 03:00 08 May 2026 21:00 $0.09190 $0.09820 +6.42% BEAR 43 exit_fp
04 May 2026 14:00 07 May 2026 01:00 $0.08760 $0.09180 +4.23% NEUTRAL 60 trail
03 May 2026 22:00 04 May 2026 13:00 $0.08870 $0.08790 -1.46% CRASH 16 stop
02 May 2026 07:00 03 May 2026 21:00 $0.08960 $0.08880 -1.46% CRASH 39 stop
29 Apr 2026 19:00 02 May 2026 06:00 $0.08880 $0.08960 +0.36% BEAR 60 trail
29 Apr 2026 15:00 29 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.08990 $0.08910 -1.46% CRASH 4 stop
27 Apr 2026 16:00 29 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.09160 $0.09070 -1.46% BEAR 47 stop
27 Apr 2026 09:00 27 Apr 2026 15:00 $0.09280 $0.09190 -1.46% CRASH 7 stop
25 Apr 2026 11:00 25 Apr 2026 22:00 $0.09920 $0.09830 -1.46% BEAR 12 stop
21 Apr 2026 20:00 25 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.09050 $0.09670 +6.41% NEUTRAL 78 exit_fp
20 Apr 2026 00:00 21 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.08930 $0.09140 +1.79% NEUTRAL 37 trail
19 Apr 2026 02:00 19 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.09060 $0.08970 -1.46% BEAR 22 stop
18 Apr 2026 17:00 18 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.09270 $0.09180 -1.46% CRASH 7 stop
18 Apr 2026 09:00 18 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.09540 $0.09450 -1.46% CRASH 8 stop
16 Apr 2026 15:00 17 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.09280 $0.09670 +3.78% BEAR 23 exit_fp
14 Apr 2026 19:00 16 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.08570 $0.09400 +9.24% NEUTRAL 42 take_profit
13 Apr 2026 15:00 14 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.08740 $0.08660 -1.46% CRASH 28 stop
12 Apr 2026 22:00 13 Apr 2026 13:00 $0.08620 $0.08720 +0.75% BEAR 16 exit_fp
12 Apr 2026 05:00 12 Apr 2026 21:00 $0.08770 $0.08690 -1.46% BEAR 17 stop
11 Apr 2026 01:00 12 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.08970 $0.08890 -1.46% CRASH 28 stop
08 Apr 2026 01:00 10 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.08900 $0.09050 +1.13% BEAR 71 trail
07 Apr 2026 19:00 07 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.08420 $0.09050 +7.04% BEAR 5 exit_fp
07 Apr 2026 00:00 07 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.08480 $0.08400 -1.46% BEAR 19 stop
06 Apr 2026 01:00 06 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.08640 $0.08560 -1.46% CRASH 23 stop
05 Apr 2026 04:00 05 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.08540 $0.08460 -1.46% CRASH 9 stop
03 Apr 2026 09:00 05 Apr 2026 03:00 $0.08760 $0.08680 -1.46% CRASH 43 stop
02 Apr 2026 03:00 02 Apr 2026 21:00 $0.08560 $0.08480 -1.46% BEAR 19 stop
01 Apr 2026 19:00 02 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.08760 $0.08680 -1.46% CRASH 8 stop
01 Apr 2026 12:00 01 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.08850 $0.08770 -1.46% CRASH 7 stop
31 Mar 2026 21:00 01 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.08420 $0.08690 +2.78% CRASH 10 exit_fp
30 Mar 2026 01:00 31 Mar 2026 20:00 $0.08120 $0.08420 +3.27% BEAR 44 exit_fp
27 Mar 2026 12:00 29 Mar 2026 22:00 $0.08120 $0.08040 -1.46% CRASH 59 stop
26 Mar 2026 10:00 27 Mar 2026 01:00 $0.08540 $0.08460 -1.46% CRASH 16 stop
23 Mar 2026 12:00 26 Mar 2026 09:00 $0.08690 $0.08610 -1.46% CRASH 70 stop
22 Mar 2026 22:00 23 Mar 2026 11:00 $0.08300 $0.08690 +4.27% BEAR 14 exit_fp
21 Mar 2026 10:00 22 Mar 2026 21:00 $0.08710 $0.08630 -1.46% CRASH 36 stop
20 Mar 2026 19:00 21 Mar 2026 09:00 $0.08870 $0.08790 -1.46% CRASH 15 stop
19 Mar 2026 21:00 20 Mar 2026 18:00 $0.09000 $0.08920 -1.46% BEAR 22 stop
18 Mar 2026 20:00 19 Mar 2026 19:00 $0.09130 $0.09040 -1.46% CRASH 24 stop
17 Mar 2026 04:00 18 Mar 2026 19:00 $0.09600 $0.09510 -1.46% CRASH 40 stop
16 Mar 2026 12:00 17 Mar 2026 00:00 $0.09450 $0.09790 +3.17% BEAR 13 signal

Start Trading Decentraland Smarter

These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time MANA signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.

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38.1% Win Rate Sharpe 3.22 782 Trades -15.8% Max Drawdown