ONDOONDOOndo Finance$0.344300-2.99%
24h High$0.36
24h Low$0.34
Volume$8.4M
Updated15:38 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Backtests / ONDO
OMNISCIUS · V6.2 (PYTHIA)

ONDO Ondo Finance (ONDO) Backtest

We ran a full walk-forward backtest using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v6.2 Pythia model for ONDO - Ondo Finance. The results below cover the complete out-of-sample window from Jul 2025 → May 2026 across 3 walk-forward cycles (= train on the past, test exclusively on unseen future bars, then roll the window). The model executed 373 trades in total, compounding an initial $10,000 base to a final value of $15,784. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on every signal to simulate live execution latency — the same decision logic runs in production.

Model v6.2 (Pythia) • 3 Walk-Forward Cycles • Jul 2025 – May 2026 • $0.344300 (-2.99%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Ondo Finance (ONDO) brings traditional fixed-income assets like US Treasuries on-chain, targeting institutional investors. Its tokenized funds (USDY, OUSG) provide regulated yield exposure. ONDO has become a flagship of the RWA (real-world assets) narrative. Strong narrative-driven moves create distinct entry/exit windows our model captures.

KPIs Equity Curve Price & Trades Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log All Backtests View ONDO Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. A Sharpe above 3.0 and a profit factor above 1.5 mean winners decisively outweigh losers — by design the model wins on size, not on frequency.

Sharpe Ratio
1.28
Sortino Ratio
5.38
Profit Factor
1.44
Calmar Ratio
22.18
Win Rate
43.5%
Max Drawdown
-30.6%
Avg Drawdown
-15.96%
Alpha vs B&H
-12,397,281.0pp
Total Trades
124
Exposure
46.7%
Beats B&H
2/3
Sharpe Trend
-2.61
ONDO

ONDO Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025
—
—
—
—
—
—
+8.1%
8t
+21.7%
23t
-3.1%
19t
+56.5%
28t
-9.5%
73t
-3.8%
56t
 +73.9%
2026
-17.1%
57t
+15.3%
46t
+4.9%
18t
+6.8%
24t
+5.2%
21t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +12.7%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +57.8% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↓ Large drawdown: -30.6% — expect volatility on capital.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 124 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +5.04% on 2 trades, WR 50%.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: CRASH — avg -0.20% on 252 trades, WR 40%.

Equity Curvev6.2 Pythia

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each cycle starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Price & trade markers

1H candles for ONDO over the latest walk-forward cycle (2026-02-10 → 2026-05-20) with every entry (▲) and exit (▼ profitable, ▼ loss). Older cycles are summarized in the per-cycle table below.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Regime Breakdownv6.2 Pythia

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 2 50.0% +5.04% 8.15 30.0
BULL 25 67.5% +1.88% 5.72 18.6
BEAR 69 50.5% +0.78% 2.75 11.8

Per-Cycle Resultsv6.2 Pythia

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 Jul '25 – Nov '25 4.05 67% -8.9% 38.5% 78 Yes
2 Nov '25 – Feb '26 -1.65 -17% -30.6% 45.5% 211 Yes
3 Feb '26 – May '26 1.44 14% -8.4% 46.4% 84 No

Trade Logv6.2 Pythia

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Mar 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+10.4%
Win Rate
54.0%
27W / 23L
Max Drawdown
-4.0%
€10,000 Invested
€11,041
1.1x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
19 May 2026 15:00 20 May 2026 01:00 $0.36540 $0.37000 +0.95% BEAR 11 signal
19 May 2026 11:00 19 May 2026 14:00 $0.36730 $0.36370 -1.41% BULL 4 stop
18 May 2026 07:00 18 May 2026 12:00 $0.33850 $0.34610 +1.93% NEUTRAL 6 exit_fp
18 May 2026 00:00 18 May 2026 06:00 $0.34260 $0.33920 -1.41% BEAR 7 stop
17 May 2026 14:00 17 May 2026 23:00 $0.35240 $0.34890 -1.41% BULL 10 stop
17 May 2026 08:00 17 May 2026 13:00 $0.35710 $0.35360 -1.41% NEUTRAL 6 stop
16 May 2026 23:00 17 May 2026 07:00 $0.34390 $0.35710 +3.52% BULL 9 exit_fp
16 May 2026 05:00 16 May 2026 22:00 $0.35700 $0.35350 -1.41% NEUTRAL 18 stop
15 May 2026 13:00 16 May 2026 04:00 $0.37720 $0.37350 -1.41% BEAR 16 stop
15 May 2026 07:00 15 May 2026 12:00 $0.38070 $0.37710 -1.46% BEAR 6 stop
14 May 2026 14:00 14 May 2026 20:00 $0.39690 $0.39320 -1.46% NEUTRAL 7 stop
14 May 2026 04:00 14 May 2026 13:00 $0.37520 $0.39690 +5.35% BULL 10 exit_fp
13 May 2026 16:00 14 May 2026 03:00 $0.38150 $0.37790 -1.46% BEAR 12 stop
13 May 2026 06:00 13 May 2026 07:00 $0.40350 $0.39970 -1.46% NEUTRAL 2 stop
12 May 2026 12:00 13 May 2026 03:00 $0.40640 $0.40910 +0.25% BEAR 16 exit_fp
06 May 2026 05:00 06 May 2026 12:00 $0.31550 $0.31800 +0.38% BULL 8 signal
04 May 2026 13:00 04 May 2026 18:00 $0.30440 $0.31700 +3.71% NEUTRAL 6 signal
03 May 2026 11:00 03 May 2026 17:00 $0.27660 $0.28270 +1.79% NEUTRAL 7 signal
03 May 2026 02:00 03 May 2026 08:00 $0.27770 $0.27990 +0.38% NEUTRAL 7 signal
02 May 2026 01:00 02 May 2026 03:00 $0.26870 $0.26940 -0.15% NEUTRAL 3 signal
30 Apr 2026 05:00 01 May 2026 02:00 $0.26070 $0.26620 +1.69% BEAR 22 signal
27 Apr 2026 16:00 28 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.26080 $0.26380 +0.74% NEUTRAL 27 signal
27 Apr 2026 06:00 27 Apr 2026 15:00 $0.26380 $0.26130 -1.46% CRASH 10 stop
25 Apr 2026 12:00 26 Apr 2026 09:00 $0.26160 $0.26390 +0.47% BEAR 22 signal
25 Apr 2026 00:00 25 Apr 2026 03:00 $0.26110 $0.26330 +0.43% BEAR 4 signal
23 Apr 2026 19:00 24 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.25820 $0.26280 +1.37% BEAR 20 signal
23 Apr 2026 09:00 23 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.25680 $0.25850 +0.25% CRASH 4 signal
21 Apr 2026 18:00 22 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.25570 $0.25850 +0.68% BEAR 7 signal
20 Apr 2026 00:00 20 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.25130 $0.25670 +1.73% BEAR 19 signal
19 Apr 2026 18:00 19 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.25390 $0.25150 -1.46% CRASH 6 stop
19 Apr 2026 06:00 19 Apr 2026 11:00 $0.25450 $0.25700 +0.57% BEAR 6 signal
18 Apr 2026 12:00 19 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.26180 $0.25930 -1.46% BEAR 18 stop
12 Apr 2026 11:00 13 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.24670 $0.24720 -0.21% BEAR 20 signal
11 Apr 2026 01:00 11 Apr 2026 15:00 $0.25480 $0.25540 -0.17% BEAR 15 signal
10 Apr 2026 01:00 10 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.25320 $0.25740 +1.24% BEAR 14 signal
08 Apr 2026 20:00 09 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.25930 $0.25690 -1.46% CRASH 21 stop
08 Apr 2026 01:00 08 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.27000 $0.26750 -1.46% CRASH 19 stop
07 Apr 2026 14:00 07 Apr 2026 21:00 $0.25060 $0.26190 +4.08% BEAR 8 exit_fp
07 Apr 2026 00:00 07 Apr 2026 12:00 $0.25630 $0.25390 -1.46% CRASH 13 stop
06 Apr 2026 17:00 06 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.26170 $0.25920 -1.46% CRASH 7 stop
05 Apr 2026 15:00 05 Apr 2026 23:00 $0.24840 $0.26030 +4.36% BEAR 9 exit_fp
02 Apr 2026 23:00 03 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.25760 $0.26160 +1.14% BEAR 7 signal
02 Apr 2026 12:00 02 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.25720 $0.25910 +0.33% CRASH 3 signal
02 Apr 2026 05:00 02 Apr 2026 07:00 $0.25890 $0.26260 +1.01% CRASH 3 signal
01 Apr 2026 02:00 02 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.27210 $0.27080 -0.88% BEAR 23 signal
29 Mar 2026 19:00 29 Mar 2026 23:00 $0.26010 $0.25760 -1.46% CRASH 5 stop
28 Mar 2026 02:00 28 Mar 2026 07:00 $0.26320 $0.26520 +0.35% CRASH 6 signal
23 Mar 2026 20:00 24 Mar 2026 07:00 $0.25130 $0.25810 +2.29% BEAR 12 signal
23 Mar 2026 07:00 23 Mar 2026 11:00 $0.24410 $0.25250 +3.02% BEAR 5 exit_fp
22 Mar 2026 17:00 23 Mar 2026 06:00 $0.24790 $0.24560 -1.46% BEAR 14 stop

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43.5% Win Rate Sharpe 1.28 124 Trades -30.6% Max Drawdown