Dogecoin (DOGE) Backtest
Walk-forward validated backtest results for Dogecoin. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.
Model 2.5.8.3
•
2 Walk-Forward Folds
•
May 2020 – Apr 2026
•
$0.093920 (-2.19%)
Dogecoin (DOGE) started as a joke in 2013 but has become one of the most recognized cryptocurrencies. With an inflationary supply and proof-of-work consensus, DOGE is driven almost entirely by community sentiment and social media activity. Its extreme volatility during hype cycles creates significant trading opportunities. Our model tracks momentum and sentiment shifts to time entries and exits during DOGE's characteristic pump-and-dump patterns.
Performance Overview
Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.
Sharpe Ratio
10.25
Win Rate
81.5%
Max Drawdown
-14.3%
Total Trades
567
Sortino Ratio
8.76
Profit Factor
24.37
Exposure
39.1%
Beats B&H
2/2
Equity Curve
Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each fold starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.
Regime Breakdown
Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.
| Regime | Trades | Win Rate | Avg PnL | Profit Factor | Avg Bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUBBLE | 328 | 82.4% | +4.59% | 53.27 | 16.0 |
| BULL | 112 | 83.9% | +6.10% | 10.22 | 32.5 |
| SIDEWAYS | 597 | 82.1% | +3.40% | 44.02 | 19.2 |
| BEAR | 97 | 77.8% | +2.67% | 17.18 | 14.8 |
Per-Fold Results
Each fold is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.
| Fold | Period | Sharpe | Return | MaxDD | Win Rate | Trades | B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May '20 – Apr '24 | 8.69 | 544,449x | -14.3% | 75.5% | 815 | Yes |
| 2 | Apr '24 – Apr '26 | 11.82 | 5,635x | -8.0% | 87.5% | 319 | Yes |
Trade Log
Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Dec 2025 – Apr 2026).
Compound Return
+104.5%
Win Rate
80.0%
40W / 10L
Max Drawdown
-2.0%
€10,000 Invested
€20,447
2.0x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
| Entry | Exit | Entry Price | Exit Price | PnL | Regime | Bars | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 15:00 | 14 Apr 2026 02:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +2.70% | BEAR | 36 | signal |
| 10 Apr 2026 04:00 | 10 Apr 2026 04:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | -0.41% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 09 Apr 2026 05:00 | 09 Apr 2026 06:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | -0.33% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 07 Apr 2026 22:00 | 07 Apr 2026 22:00 | $0.10 | $0.10 | -0.41% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 07 Apr 2026 01:00 | 07 Apr 2026 09:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +0.59% | BEAR | 9 | signal |
| 05 Apr 2026 20:00 | 06 Apr 2026 04:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +1.70% | BEAR | 9 | signal |
| 04 Apr 2026 15:00 | 05 Apr 2026 07:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | -2.25% | BEAR | 17 | stop |
| 02 Apr 2026 13:00 | 04 Apr 2026 00:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +1.40% | BEAR | 36 | trail |
| 31 Mar 2026 23:00 | 01 Apr 2026 05:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +0.58% | BEAR | 7 | exit_fp |
| 31 Mar 2026 06:00 | 31 Mar 2026 09:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | -2.54% | BEAR | 4 | stop |
| 29 Mar 2026 23:00 | 30 Mar 2026 17:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +1.46% | BEAR | 19 | trail |
| 27 Mar 2026 11:00 | 28 Mar 2026 13:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +2.46% | BEAR | 27 | exit_fp |
| 24 Mar 2026 15:00 | 24 Mar 2026 20:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +0.90% | BEAR | 6 | signal |
| 22 Mar 2026 21:00 | 24 Mar 2026 00:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +4.06% | BEAR | 28 | trail |
| 15 Mar 2026 19:00 | 16 Mar 2026 11:00 | $0.10 | $0.10 | +4.58% | BEAR | 17 | trail |
| 14 Mar 2026 07:00 | 15 Mar 2026 06:00 | $0.09 | $0.10 | +0.80% | BEAR | 24 | trail |
| 11 Mar 2026 10:00 | 13 Mar 2026 08:00 | $0.09 | $0.10 | +5.25% | BEAR | 47 | signal |
| 08 Mar 2026 17:00 | 09 Mar 2026 23:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +1.70% | BEAR | 31 | trail |
| 04 Mar 2026 09:00 | 04 Mar 2026 15:00 | $0.09 | $0.10 | +6.57% | BEAR | 7 | exit_fp |
| 03 Mar 2026 15:00 | 03 Mar 2026 15:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | -0.41% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 01 Mar 2026 20:00 | 02 Mar 2026 15:00 | $0.09 | $0.10 | +4.82% | BEAR | 20 | exit_fp |
| 28 Feb 2026 07:00 | 01 Mar 2026 01:00 | $0.09 | $0.10 | +6.41% | BEAR | 19 | exit_fp |
| 24 Feb 2026 14:00 | 25 Feb 2026 16:00 | $0.09 | $0.10 | +11.94% | BEAR | 27 | exit_fp |
| 23 Feb 2026 02:00 | 23 Feb 2026 10:00 | $0.09 | $0.10 | +3.55% | BEAR | 9 | signal |
| 19 Feb 2026 14:00 | 20 Feb 2026 16:00 | $0.10 | $0.10 | +2.90% | BEAR | 27 | exit_fp |
| 19 Feb 2026 01:00 | 19 Feb 2026 01:00 | $0.10 | $0.10 | -0.41% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 13 Feb 2026 02:00 | 14 Feb 2026 16:00 | $0.09 | $0.10 | +12.49% | BEAR | 39 | signal |
| 12 Feb 2026 00:00 | 12 Feb 2026 13:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +2.52% | BEAR | 14 | exit_fp |
| 11 Feb 2026 11:00 | 11 Feb 2026 11:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | -0.41% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 09 Feb 2026 11:00 | 09 Feb 2026 12:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +0.63% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 06 Feb 2026 01:00 | 06 Feb 2026 14:00 | $0.09 | $0.10 | +5.79% | BEAR | 14 | exit_fp |
| 03 Feb 2026 19:00 | 03 Feb 2026 20:00 | $0.11 | $0.11 | +2.22% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 02 Feb 2026 19:00 | 02 Feb 2026 22:00 | $0.11 | $0.11 | +0.73% | SIDEWAYS | 4 | signal |
| 02 Feb 2026 01:00 | 02 Feb 2026 03:00 | $0.11 | $0.10 | -2.16% | BEAR | 3 | regime_exit |
| 31 Jan 2026 19:00 | 01 Feb 2026 12:00 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +3.43% | SIDEWAYS | 18 | signal |
| 25 Jan 2026 20:00 | 27 Jan 2026 16:00 | $0.12 | $0.13 | +5.12% | SIDEWAYS | 45 | signal |
| 21 Jan 2026 13:00 | 21 Jan 2026 22:00 | $0.12 | $0.13 | +3.36% | SIDEWAYS | 10 | signal |
| 19 Jan 2026 01:00 | 19 Jan 2026 11:00 | $0.13 | $0.13 | +0.53% | SIDEWAYS | 11 | signal |
| 12 Jan 2026 13:00 | 14 Jan 2026 00:00 | $0.14 | $0.15 | +8.50% | SIDEWAYS | 36 | signal |
| 11 Jan 2026 21:00 | 12 Jan 2026 00:00 | $0.14 | $0.14 | +0.39% | SIDEWAYS | 4 | signal |
| 06 Jan 2026 17:00 | 06 Jan 2026 22:00 | $0.14 | $0.15 | +3.58% | SIDEWAYS | 6 | signal |
| 05 Jan 2026 10:00 | 06 Jan 2026 00:00 | $0.15 | $0.15 | +2.80% | SIDEWAYS | 15 | signal |
| 02 Jan 2026 16:00 | 04 Jan 2026 05:00 | $0.14 | $0.15 | +9.95% | SIDEWAYS | 38 | take_profit |
| 31 Dec 2025 22:00 | 02 Jan 2026 03:00 | $0.12 | $0.13 | +8.88% | SIDEWAYS | 30 | take_profit |
| 26 Dec 2025 17:00 | 28 Dec 2025 10:00 | $0.12 | $0.12 | +1.42% | SIDEWAYS | 42 | signal |
| 26 Dec 2025 01:00 | 26 Dec 2025 02:00 | $0.12 | $0.13 | +1.44% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 21 Dec 2025 14:00 | 21 Dec 2025 19:00 | $0.13 | $0.13 | +0.12% | BEAR | 6 | signal |
| 20 Dec 2025 09:00 | 20 Dec 2025 18:00 | $0.13 | $0.13 | -0.48% | BEAR | 10 | signal |
| 18 Dec 2025 20:00 | 19 Dec 2025 20:00 | $0.12 | $0.13 | +9.69% | SIDEWAYS | 25 | take_profit |
| 15 Dec 2025 20:00 | 17 Dec 2025 00:00 | $0.13 | $0.13 | +2.30% | SIDEWAYS | 29 | signal |
Start Trading Dogecoin Smarter
These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time DOGE signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.
81.5% Win Rate
Sharpe 10.25
567 Trades
Free Plan Available
