Polkadot (DOT) Backtest
Walk-forward validated backtest results for Polkadot. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.
Model 2.5.8.3
•
1 Walk-Forward Fold
•
Apr 2024 – Apr 2026
•
$1.2600 (-2.63%)
Polkadot (DOT) is a multi-chain protocol that enables different blockchains to interoperate and share security. Founded by Ethereum co-founder Gavin Wood, Polkadot uses a unique parachain auction system. DOT price dynamics are influenced by parachain slot auctions, governance proposals, and broader cross-chain adoption trends. Its mid-cap positioning creates opportunities for larger percentage moves compared to mega-cap assets.
Performance Overview
Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.
Sharpe Ratio
13.47
Win Rate
83.1%
Max Drawdown
-5.4%
Total Trades
384
Sortino Ratio
15.03
Profit Factor
51.39
Exposure
35.9%
Beats B&H
1/1
Equity Curve
Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each fold starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.
Regime Breakdown
Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.
| Regime | Trades | Win Rate | Avg PnL | Profit Factor | Avg Bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUBBLE | 103 | 85.4% | +3.82% | 89.10 | 16.2 |
| BULL | 38 | 100.0% | +6.69% | 0.00 | 31.8 |
| SIDEWAYS | 187 | 80.2% | +2.98% | 35.12 | 15.0 |
| BEAR | 56 | 76.8% | +2.69% | 25.63 | 11.9 |
Trade Log
Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Jan 2026 – Apr 2026).
Compound Return
+123.3%
Win Rate
78.0%
39W / 11L
Max Drawdown
-1.0%
€10,000 Invested
€22,331
2.2x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
| Entry | Exit | Entry Price | Exit Price | PnL | Regime | Bars | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2026 06:00 | 13 Apr 2026 22:00 | $1.18 | $1.22 | +2.61% | BEAR | 17 | exit_fp |
| 12 Apr 2026 14:00 | 12 Apr 2026 14:00 | $1.23 | $1.23 | -0.25% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 11 Apr 2026 15:00 | 11 Apr 2026 16:00 | $1.28 | $1.29 | +0.84% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 09 Apr 2026 01:00 | 09 Apr 2026 21:00 | $1.26 | $1.32 | +4.60% | BEAR | 21 | exit_fp |
| 07 Apr 2026 01:00 | 08 Apr 2026 01:00 | $1.24 | $1.31 | +5.72% | BEAR | 25 | exit_fp |
| 05 Apr 2026 08:00 | 06 Apr 2026 08:00 | $1.23 | $1.27 | +3.08% | BEAR | 25 | signal |
| 04 Apr 2026 10:00 | 04 Apr 2026 17:00 | $1.24 | $1.26 | +1.27% | BEAR | 8 | signal |
| 02 Apr 2026 09:00 | 03 Apr 2026 19:00 | $1.22 | $1.24 | +1.83% | BEAR | 35 | trail |
| 31 Mar 2026 03:00 | 31 Mar 2026 19:00 | $1.25 | $1.27 | +0.94% | BEAR | 17 | signal |
| 29 Mar 2026 01:00 | 30 Mar 2026 14:00 | $1.26 | $1.27 | +0.30% | BEAR | 38 | signal |
| 26 Mar 2026 20:00 | 26 Mar 2026 21:00 | $1.31 | $1.32 | +0.74% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 24 Mar 2026 13:00 | 24 Mar 2026 14:00 | $1.39 | $1.40 | +0.61% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 23 Mar 2026 06:00 | 23 Mar 2026 11:00 | $1.42 | $1.47 | +3.13% | BEAR | 6 | exit_fp |
| 22 Mar 2026 13:00 | 22 Mar 2026 17:00 | $1.44 | $1.43 | -0.53% | BEAR | 5 | signal |
| 19 Mar 2026 15:00 | 19 Mar 2026 15:00 | $1.52 | $1.52 | -0.25% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 18 Mar 2026 15:00 | 18 Mar 2026 21:00 | $1.56 | $1.56 | -0.25% | BEAR | 7 | signal |
| 17 Mar 2026 13:00 | 17 Mar 2026 13:00 | $1.59 | $1.59 | -0.25% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 15 Mar 2026 12:00 | 16 Mar 2026 20:00 | $1.44 | $1.63 | +13.37% | BEAR | 33 | exit_fp |
| 14 Mar 2026 23:00 | 14 Mar 2026 23:00 | $1.41 | $1.41 | -0.25% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 12 Mar 2026 14:00 | 13 Mar 2026 00:00 | $1.49 | $1.53 | +2.35% | BEAR | 11 | signal |
| 10 Mar 2026 23:00 | 11 Mar 2026 12:00 | $1.49 | $1.53 | +2.44% | BEAR | 14 | exit_fp |
| 08 Mar 2026 12:00 | 10 Mar 2026 04:00 | $1.48 | $1.53 | +3.06% | BEAR | 41 | exit_fp |
| 07 Mar 2026 22:00 | 07 Mar 2026 23:00 | $1.44 | $1.45 | +0.30% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 05 Mar 2026 19:00 | 05 Mar 2026 20:00 | $1.51 | $1.54 | +1.73% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 03 Mar 2026 06:00 | 04 Mar 2026 08:00 | $1.50 | $1.56 | +4.01% | BEAR | 27 | exit_fp |
| 01 Mar 2026 18:00 | 02 Mar 2026 00:00 | $1.53 | $1.57 | +1.90% | BEAR | 7 | exit_fp |
| 28 Feb 2026 09:00 | 28 Feb 2026 20:00 | $1.46 | $1.62 | +10.89% | BEAR | 12 | exit_fp |
| 27 Feb 2026 14:00 | 27 Feb 2026 20:00 | $1.56 | $1.62 | +3.98% | BEAR | 7 | signal |
| 26 Feb 2026 22:00 | 27 Feb 2026 00:00 | $1.59 | $1.61 | +0.75% | BEAR | 3 | signal |
| 26 Feb 2026 08:00 | 26 Feb 2026 09:00 | $1.60 | $1.62 | +1.00% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 25 Feb 2026 06:00 | 25 Feb 2026 19:00 | $1.27 | $1.63 | +28.57% | BEAR | 14 | exit_fp |
| 24 Feb 2026 13:00 | 24 Feb 2026 17:00 | $1.23 | $1.25 | +1.12% | BEAR | 5 | signal |
| 23 Feb 2026 02:00 | 23 Feb 2026 09:00 | $1.25 | $1.30 | +3.34% | BEAR | 8 | exit_fp |
| 20 Feb 2026 03:00 | 21 Feb 2026 08:00 | $1.29 | $1.37 | +6.25% | BEAR | 30 | exit_fp |
| 19 Feb 2026 09:00 | 19 Feb 2026 14:00 | $1.30 | $1.28 | -1.40% | BEAR | 6 | signal |
| 16 Feb 2026 16:00 | 16 Feb 2026 21:00 | $1.35 | $1.38 | +2.04% | BEAR | 6 | signal |
| 15 Feb 2026 20:00 | 15 Feb 2026 22:00 | $1.35 | $1.36 | +0.42% | BEAR | 3 | signal |
| 12 Feb 2026 02:00 | 14 Feb 2026 08:00 | $1.28 | $1.36 | +6.47% | BEAR | 55 | signal |
| 11 Feb 2026 13:00 | 11 Feb 2026 13:00 | $1.25 | $1.25 | -0.25% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 10 Feb 2026 13:00 | 10 Feb 2026 15:00 | $1.27 | $1.28 | +0.61% | BEAR | 3 | signal |
| 09 Feb 2026 11:00 | 09 Feb 2026 17:00 | $1.29 | $1.34 | +3.30% | BEAR | 7 | exit_fp |
| 07 Feb 2026 07:00 | 07 Feb 2026 16:00 | $1.33 | $1.37 | +2.37% | BEAR | 10 | signal |
| 06 Feb 2026 01:00 | 06 Feb 2026 14:00 | $1.27 | $1.35 | +6.04% | BEAR | 14 | exit_fp |
| 03 Feb 2026 15:00 | 03 Feb 2026 15:00 | $1.53 | $1.53 | -0.19% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 02 Feb 2026 01:00 | 02 Feb 2026 03:00 | $1.53 | $1.51 | -1.24% | BEAR | 3 | regime_exit |
| 31 Jan 2026 17:00 | 31 Jan 2026 21:00 | $1.50 | $1.52 | +1.54% | SIDEWAYS | 5 | exit_fp |
| 28 Jan 2026 17:00 | 28 Jan 2026 17:00 | $1.85 | $1.85 | -0.19% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 27 Jan 2026 18:00 | 27 Jan 2026 20:00 | $1.87 | $1.89 | +1.20% | SIDEWAYS | 3 | signal |
| 25 Jan 2026 20:00 | 27 Jan 2026 04:00 | $1.81 | $1.88 | +3.68% | SIDEWAYS | 33 | signal |
| 24 Jan 2026 13:00 | 24 Jan 2026 14:00 | $1.91 | $1.92 | +0.18% | SIDEWAYS | 2 | signal |
Start Trading Polkadot Smarter
These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time DOT signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.
83.1% Win Rate
Sharpe 13.47
384 Trades
Free Plan Available
