Backtests / ETC
OMNISCIUS · V4.2 (THEROS)

ETC ETC (ETC) Backtest

Walk-forward validated backtest results for ETC. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.

6 Walk-Forward Cycles • Aug 2019 – May 2026 • $8.5300 (+1.43%)
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Ethereum Classic (ETC) is the continuation of the original Ethereum blockchain after the 2016 DAO-fork. Proof-of-work, fixed monetary policy and a strong "code is law" community. Long history (since 2017) provides ample training data; tends to track BTC closely with periodic divergent moves around mining narratives.

KPIs Equity Curve Regimes Per-Cycle Trade Log View ETC Signals →

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.

Sharpe Ratio
12.73
Sortino Ratio
14.49
Profit Factor
39.91
Calmar Ratio
54,323.18
Win Rate
91.7%
Max Drawdown
-12.7%
Avg Drawdown
-8.44%
Alpha vs B&H
+4,068,037,790,924,989,267,968.0pp
Total Trades
224
Exposure
41.6%
Beats B&H
6/6
Sharpe Trend
+0.66
ETC

ETC Monthly Returns

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2019
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
+42.2%
14t
+62.4%
18t
+53.9%
17t
+38.8%
18t
+48.5%
17t
 +632.3%
2020
+268.9%
28t
+67.6%
13t
+147.6%
24t
+96.7%
20t
+81.5%
22t
+20.9%
17t
+55.9%
18t
+59.9%
13t
+24.2%
17t
+22.7%
10t
+98.0%
15t
+77.6%
13t
 +88,051.5%
2021
+235.0%
17t
+252.2%
17t
+117.2%
20t
+258.0%
23t
+401.7%
25t
+214.5%
21t
+144.2%
18t
+175.6%
18t
+134.2%
21t
+113.9%
18t
+79.5%
19t
+56.0%
15t
 +13,674,974.9%
2022
+88.9%
18t
+183.5%
15t
+177.0%
17t
+51.8%
18t
+169.3%
22t
+103.9%
18t
+247.7%
18t
+151.5%
22t
+113.9%
14t
+53.8%
18t
+91.6%
17t
+28.3%
15t
 +873,800.8%
2023
+121.6%
17t
+53.5%
11t
+99.1%
16t
+48.2%
12t
+18.8%
14t
+90.7%
16t
+32.4%
16t
+22.0%
22t
+27.9%
20t
+20.5%
14t
+61.0%
11t
+73.3%
18t
 +15,698.0%
2024
+123.1%
15t
+67.4%
14t
+163.9%
19t
+104.6%
15t
+90.2%
11t
+25.3%
9t
+70.3%
15t
+50.8%
14t
+46.2%
17t
+27.4%
10t
+174.4%
18t
+100.6%
19t
 +126,260.5%
2025
+108.3%
16t
+56.6%
14t
+78.8%
15t
+58.2%
18t
+108.7%
15t
+45.3%
14t
+124.1%
15t
+76.5%
12t
+24.3%
11t
+69.9%
22t
+67.0%
18t
+46.5%
15t
 +57,181.3%
2026
+45.5%
13t
+98.8%
14t
+39.6%
13t
+31.9%
16t
+0.2%
1t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +434.0%

Derived from the walk-forward trade log. Cells link to the matching paper-trade page when available. Color intensity = magnitude.

Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +40,680,377,909.25B× — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 91.7% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 224 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +5.52% on 140 trades, WR 94%.

Regime Breakdown

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 291 91.9% +3.82% 309.45 18.4
BULL 140 95.0% +6.23% 190.73 26.2
SIDEWAYS 756 90.3% +3.21% 33.76 18.3
BEAR 156 92.5% +4.89% 35.19 19.2

Per-Cycle Results

Each cycle is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.

Cycle Period Sharpe Return MaxDD Win Rate Trades B&H
1 Aug '19 – Sep '20 11.77 745.5x -8.8% 90.1% 252 Yes
2 Sep '20 – Nov '21 13.75 125,497x -12.1% 92.2% 244 Yes
3 Nov '21 – Dec '22 13.22 5,374x -6.9% 92.8% 237 Yes
4 Dec '22 – Feb '24 11.26 165.0x -5.5% 87.6% 210 Yes
5 Feb '24 – Mar '25 13.97 1,179x -4.7% 95.5% 202 Yes
6 Mar '25 – May '26 12.43 411.2x -12.7% 91.9% 198 Yes

Trade Log

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Jan 2026 – May 2026).

Compound Return
+288.7%
Win Rate
96.0%
48W / 2L
Max Drawdown
-2.3%
€10,000 Invested
€38,868
3.9x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
01 May 2026 10:00 01 May 2026 11:00 $8.420 $8.450 +0.23% SIDEWAYS 2 exit_fp
30 Apr 2026 11:00 30 Apr 2026 13:00 $8.390 $8.420 +0.23% SIDEWAYS 3 exit_fp
29 Apr 2026 16:00 29 Apr 2026 22:00 $8.260 $8.340 +0.84% SIDEWAYS 7 exit_fp
28 Apr 2026 15:00 28 Apr 2026 20:00 $8.390 $8.410 +0.11% SIDEWAYS 6 short_signal
27 Apr 2026 16:00 27 Apr 2026 22:00 $8.290 $8.370 +0.80% SIDEWAYS 7 exit_fp
25 Apr 2026 18:00 26 Apr 2026 06:00 $8.420 $8.470 +0.43% SIDEWAYS 13 exit_fp
23 Apr 2026 02:00 23 Apr 2026 11:00 $8.400 $8.480 +0.79% SIDEWAYS 10 exit_fp
19 Apr 2026 23:00 22 Apr 2026 08:00 $8.230 $8.690 +5.42% SIDEWAYS 58 exit_fp
18 Apr 2026 19:00 18 Apr 2026 22:00 $8.460 $8.520 +0.55% SIDEWAYS 4 signal
14 Apr 2026 19:00 17 Apr 2026 01:00 $8.300 $8.660 +4.17% SIDEWAYS 55 short_signal
12 Apr 2026 14:00 14 Apr 2026 01:00 $8.140 $8.520 +4.50% BEAR 36 signal
11 Apr 2026 13:00 11 Apr 2026 18:00 $8.300 $8.500 +2.25% BEAR 6 exit_fp
09 Apr 2026 01:00 09 Apr 2026 21:00 $8.380 $8.490 +1.15% BEAR 21 exit_fp
07 Apr 2026 02:00 07 Apr 2026 13:00 $8.370 $8.212 -2.11% BEAR 12 stop
05 Apr 2026 04:00 06 Apr 2026 01:00 $8.470 $8.720 +2.79% BEAR 22 signal
04 Apr 2026 09:00 04 Apr 2026 12:00 $8.280 $8.490 +2.37% BEAR 4 exit_fp
02 Apr 2026 13:00 03 Apr 2026 20:00 $7.830 $8.150 +3.92% BEAR 32 exit_fp
31 Mar 2026 01:00 31 Mar 2026 09:00 $8.190 $8.021 -2.27% BEAR 9 stop
29 Mar 2026 17:00 30 Mar 2026 07:00 $7.940 $8.320 +4.62% BEAR 15 exit_fp
22 Mar 2026 22:00 24 Mar 2026 01:00 $8.060 $8.504 +5.27% BEAR 28 trail
19 Mar 2026 17:00 19 Mar 2026 20:00 $8.300 $8.340 +0.35% SIDEWAYS 4 signal
18 Mar 2026 17:00 18 Mar 2026 23:00 $8.410 $8.510 +1.03% SIDEWAYS 7 short_signal
17 Mar 2026 13:00 17 Mar 2026 23:00 $8.830 $8.860 +0.18% BEAR 11 short_signal
16 Mar 2026 03:00 16 Mar 2026 07:00 $8.650 $9.050 +4.46% BEAR 5 exit_fp
14 Mar 2026 19:00 15 Mar 2026 14:00 $8.210 $8.323 +1.16% BEAR 20 trail
11 Mar 2026 06:00 13 Mar 2026 12:00 $8.230 $8.690 +5.42% BEAR 55 exit_fp
09 Mar 2026 00:00 10 Mar 2026 17:00 $8.030 $8.430 +4.81% BEAR 42 short_signal
05 Mar 2026 18:00 05 Mar 2026 22:00 $8.630 $8.680 +0.42% BEAR 5 short_signal
03 Mar 2026 13:00 04 Mar 2026 19:00 $8.380 $8.970 +6.87% BEAR 31 exit_fp
01 Mar 2026 20:00 02 Mar 2026 07:00 $8.340 $8.518 +1.91% BEAR 12 trail
28 Feb 2026 07:00 28 Feb 2026 20:00 $8.290 $8.650 +4.18% BEAR 14 exit_fp
26 Feb 2026 17:00 27 Feb 2026 01:00 $8.710 $8.840 +1.33% BEAR 9 signal
25 Feb 2026 12:00 25 Feb 2026 19:00 $8.690 $9.460 +8.69% BEAR 8 exit_fp
24 Feb 2026 10:00 24 Feb 2026 23:00 $8.160 $8.332 +1.88% BEAR 14 trail
19 Feb 2026 13:00 21 Feb 2026 08:00 $8.230 $9.650 +17.07% BEAR 44 exit_fp
17 Feb 2026 15:00 17 Feb 2026 19:00 $8.690 $8.720 +0.18% BEAR 5 short_signal
15 Feb 2026 19:00 16 Feb 2026 23:00 $8.640 $8.840 +2.15% BEAR 29 short_signal
12 Feb 2026 23:00 14 Feb 2026 16:00 $8.250 $8.950 +8.31% BEAR 42 short_signal
11 Feb 2026 15:00 12 Feb 2026 10:00 $8.050 $8.410 +4.31% BEAR 20 exit_fp
09 Feb 2026 09:00 09 Feb 2026 17:00 $8.340 $8.670 +3.82% BEAR 9 exit_fp
06 Feb 2026 01:00 06 Feb 2026 16:00 $8.190 $8.840 +7.80% BEAR 16 exit_fp
03 Feb 2026 18:00 03 Feb 2026 20:00 $9.210 $9.860 +6.92% BEAR 3 exit_fp
02 Feb 2026 01:00 02 Feb 2026 15:00 $9.680 $9.870 +1.83% BEAR 15 exit_fp
31 Jan 2026 18:00 01 Feb 2026 00:00 $9.480 $9.790 +3.14% BEAR 7 exit_fp
25 Jan 2026 20:00 27 Jan 2026 09:00 $11.100 $11.281 +1.45% SIDEWAYS 38 trail
21 Jan 2026 12:00 21 Jan 2026 19:00 $11.590 $11.880 +2.37% SIDEWAYS 8 exit_fp
19 Jan 2026 01:00 19 Jan 2026 19:00 $11.800 $12.070 +2.16% SIDEWAYS 19 exit_fp
16 Jan 2026 05:00 17 Jan 2026 08:00 $12.630 $13.010 +2.87% SIDEWAYS 28 exit_fp
14 Jan 2026 19:00 14 Jan 2026 21:00 $13.260 $13.280 +0.02% SIDEWAYS 3 signal
12 Jan 2026 15:00 14 Jan 2026 02:00 $12.380 $13.280 +7.13% SIDEWAYS 36 short_signal

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91.7% Win Rate Sharpe 12.73 224 Trades -12.7% Max Drawdown