Gas (GAS) Backtest
Walk-forward validated backtest results for Gas. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.
Model 2.5.8.3
•
2 Walk-Forward Folds
•
May 2020 – Apr 2026
•
$1.6810 (-3.56%)
Gas (GAS) is the utility token of the Neo blockchain, used to pay for transactions, smart contract deployment, and storage on the network. While smaller in market cap, GAS exhibits high volatility and strong momentum patterns. Its lower liquidity compared to large-cap assets means larger percentage swings, which our model exploits through careful position sizing and regime-aware entry timing.
Performance Overview
Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.
Sharpe Ratio
8.91
Win Rate
72.9%
Max Drawdown
-22.2%
Total Trades
651
Sortino Ratio
8.79
Profit Factor
11.17
Exposure
32.9%
Beats B&H
2/2
Equity Curve
Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each fold starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.
Regime Breakdown
Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.
| Regime | Trades | Win Rate | Avg PnL | Profit Factor | Avg Bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUBBLE | 362 | 78.3% | +3.24% | 34.71 | 10.7 |
| BULL | 128 | 77.0% | +4.71% | 5.59 | 21.2 |
| SIDEWAYS | 689 | 68.0% | +2.44% | 10.38 | 10.9 |
| BEAR | 122 | 75.6% | +2.84% | 18.44 | 9.0 |
Per-Fold Results
Each fold is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.
| Fold | Period | Sharpe | Return | MaxDD | Win Rate | Trades | B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May '20 – Apr '24 | 7.76 | 215,240,286x | -22.2% | 74.0% | 908 | Yes |
| 2 | Apr '24 – Apr '26 | 10.06 | 510.1x | -9.0% | 71.8% | 393 | Yes |
Trade Log
Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Dec 2025 – Apr 2026).
Compound Return
+98.2%
Win Rate
70.0%
35W / 15L
Max Drawdown
-0.8%
€10,000 Invested
€19,821
2.0x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
| Entry | Exit | Entry Price | Exit Price | PnL | Regime | Bars | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 19:00 | 14 Apr 2026 03:00 | $1.42 | $1.45 | +1.67% | BEAR | 20 | trail |
| 11 Apr 2026 16:00 | 11 Apr 2026 19:00 | $1.47 | $1.49 | +0.75% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 08 Apr 2026 20:00 | 09 Apr 2026 13:00 | $1.46 | $1.49 | +1.36% | BEAR | 13 | trail |
| 07 Apr 2026 07:00 | 08 Apr 2026 04:00 | $1.43 | $1.47 | +2.38% | BEAR | 19 | trail |
| 04 Apr 2026 00:00 | 04 Apr 2026 01:00 | $1.59 | $1.65 | +4.06% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 03 Apr 2026 06:00 | 03 Apr 2026 11:00 | $1.49 | $1.66 | +10.80% | BEAR | 6 | exit_fp |
| 01 Apr 2026 06:00 | 01 Apr 2026 15:00 | $1.41 | $1.42 | +0.92% | BEAR | 9 | signal |
| 30 Mar 2026 00:00 | 31 Mar 2026 05:00 | $1.39 | $1.36 | -2.41% | BEAR | 26 | signal |
| 27 Mar 2026 14:00 | 28 Mar 2026 10:00 | $1.32 | $1.39 | +5.18% | BEAR | 11 | exit_fp |
| 23 Mar 2026 01:00 | 24 Mar 2026 12:00 | $1.31 | $1.51 | +14.80% | BEAR | 18 | exit_fp |
| 14 Mar 2026 23:00 | 14 Mar 2026 23:00 | $1.35 | $1.35 | -0.25% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 11 Mar 2026 07:00 | 12 Mar 2026 13:00 | $1.33 | $1.34 | +0.59% | BEAR | 22 | trail |
| 08 Mar 2026 05:00 | 08 Mar 2026 08:00 | $1.30 | $1.31 | +0.29% | BEAR | 4 | signal |
| 03 Mar 2026 16:00 | 03 Mar 2026 16:00 | $1.37 | $1.37 | -0.25% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 01 Mar 2026 21:00 | 02 Mar 2026 13:00 | $1.33 | $1.37 | +2.50% | BEAR | 11 | trail |
| 28 Feb 2026 10:00 | 01 Mar 2026 02:00 | $1.28 | $1.39 | +8.17% | BEAR | 15 | exit_fp |
| 27 Feb 2026 18:00 | 27 Feb 2026 18:00 | $1.35 | $1.35 | -0.25% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 26 Feb 2026 17:00 | 26 Feb 2026 18:00 | $1.33 | $1.34 | +0.46% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 25 Feb 2026 17:00 | 25 Feb 2026 22:00 | $1.40 | $1.41 | +0.00% | BEAR | 5 | signal |
| 24 Feb 2026 03:00 | 24 Feb 2026 21:00 | $1.29 | $1.33 | +2.58% | BEAR | 19 | trail |
| 23 Feb 2026 03:00 | 23 Feb 2026 14:00 | $1.26 | $1.28 | +1.08% | BEAR | 8 | signal |
| 20 Feb 2026 14:00 | 20 Feb 2026 14:00 | $1.34 | $1.34 | -0.25% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 16 Feb 2026 09:00 | 16 Feb 2026 09:00 | $1.40 | $1.40 | -0.25% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 12 Feb 2026 07:00 | 13 Feb 2026 14:00 | $1.34 | $1.39 | +3.27% | BEAR | 28 | signal |
| 11 Feb 2026 07:00 | 11 Feb 2026 15:00 | $1.27 | $1.30 | +1.47% | BEAR | 7 | trail |
| 09 Feb 2026 11:00 | 09 Feb 2026 15:00 | $1.31 | $1.33 | +1.28% | BEAR | 4 | signal |
| 06 Feb 2026 13:00 | 07 Feb 2026 00:00 | $1.42 | $1.48 | +3.67% | BEAR | 11 | signal |
| 05 Feb 2026 23:00 | 05 Feb 2026 23:00 | $1.39 | $1.39 | -0.25% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 03 Feb 2026 18:00 | 03 Feb 2026 19:00 | $1.58 | $1.62 | +2.24% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 02 Feb 2026 11:00 | 02 Feb 2026 19:00 | $1.55 | $1.61 | +3.32% | BEAR | 8 | regime_exit |
| 01 Feb 2026 17:00 | 01 Feb 2026 22:00 | $1.57 | $1.65 | +4.67% | BEAR | 6 | exit_fp |
| 31 Jan 2026 18:00 | 01 Feb 2026 03:00 | $1.41 | $1.50 | +6.00% | BEAR | 10 | regime_exit |
| 30 Jan 2026 11:00 | 31 Jan 2026 02:00 | $1.50 | $1.54 | +2.46% | SIDEWAYS | 16 | signal |
| 29 Jan 2026 19:00 | 29 Jan 2026 19:00 | $1.53 | $1.53 | -0.25% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 27 Jan 2026 14:00 | 27 Jan 2026 14:00 | $1.63 | $1.63 | -0.25% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 25 Jan 2026 19:00 | 27 Jan 2026 00:00 | $1.50 | $1.79 | +19.20% | SIDEWAYS | 24 | exit_fp |
| 20 Jan 2026 22:00 | 22 Jan 2026 04:00 | $1.59 | $1.65 | +3.50% | SIDEWAYS | 25 | signal |
| 19 Jan 2026 01:00 | 19 Jan 2026 11:00 | $1.67 | $1.67 | -0.54% | SIDEWAYS | 8 | signal |
| 16 Jan 2026 23:00 | 16 Jan 2026 23:00 | $1.85 | $1.85 | -0.25% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 15 Jan 2026 21:00 | 15 Jan 2026 21:00 | $1.78 | $1.78 | -0.25% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 13 Jan 2026 07:00 | 14 Jan 2026 09:00 | $1.79 | $1.86 | +4.21% | SIDEWAYS | 26 | signal |
| 12 Jan 2026 09:00 | 12 Jan 2026 09:00 | $1.78 | $1.78 | -0.25% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 07 Jan 2026 23:00 | 07 Jan 2026 23:00 | $1.80 | $1.80 | -0.25% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 06 Jan 2026 11:00 | 06 Jan 2026 12:00 | $1.85 | $1.87 | +0.49% | SIDEWAYS | 2 | signal |
| 05 Jan 2026 07:00 | 05 Jan 2026 07:00 | $1.77 | $1.77 | -0.25% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 03 Jan 2026 04:00 | 04 Jan 2026 15:00 | $1.76 | $1.79 | +1.27% | SIDEWAYS | 20 | signal |
| 31 Dec 2025 17:00 | 02 Jan 2026 04:00 | $1.70 | $1.71 | +0.69% | SIDEWAYS | 17 | trail |
| 29 Dec 2025 02:00 | 29 Dec 2025 07:00 | $1.75 | $1.86 | +5.98% | SIDEWAYS | 6 | exit_fp |
| 27 Dec 2025 21:00 | 28 Dec 2025 01:00 | $1.70 | $1.90 | +11.24% | SIDEWAYS | 5 | signal |
| 26 Dec 2025 18:00 | 26 Dec 2025 21:00 | $1.56 | $1.56 | +0.00% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
Start Trading Gas Smarter
These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time GAS signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.
72.9% Win Rate
Sharpe 8.91
651 Trades
Free Plan Available
