Internet Computer (ICP) Backtest
Walk-forward validated backtest results for Internet Computer. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.
Model 2.5.8.3
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1 Walk-Forward Fold
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Apr 2024 – Apr 2026
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$2.4360 (-4.25%)
Internet Computer (ICP) aims to extend the internet's functionality by enabling smart contracts to run at web speed with unlimited capacity. Developed by DFINITY, ICP represents an ambitious attempt at decentralized cloud computing. After a turbulent launch, ICP has found its trading range with strong momentum patterns during protocol upgrade announcements and ecosystem growth periods.
Performance Overview
Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.
Sharpe Ratio
12.77
Win Rate
85.9%
Max Drawdown
-7.6%
Total Trades
370
Sortino Ratio
13.93
Profit Factor
42.30
Exposure
36.8%
Beats B&H
1/1
Equity Curve
Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each fold starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.
Regime Breakdown
Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.
| Regime | Trades | Win Rate | Avg PnL | Profit Factor | Avg Bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUBBLE | 100 | 83.0% | +4.12% | 39.67 | 16.1 |
| BULL | 46 | 93.5% | +5.56% | 20.36 | 28.0 |
| SIDEWAYS | 183 | 83.6% | +3.67% | 62.53 | 15.3 |
| BEAR | 41 | 95.1% | +4.97% | 80.02 | 18.5 |
Trade Log
Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Jan 2026 – Apr 2026).
Compound Return
+227.2%
Win Rate
86.0%
43W / 7L
Max Drawdown
-1.4%
€10,000 Invested
€32,723
3.3x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
| Entry | Exit | Entry Price | Exit Price | PnL | Regime | Bars | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2026 01:00 | 14 Apr 2026 00:00 | $2.43 | $2.50 | +2.71% | BEAR | 24 | signal |
| 08 Apr 2026 23:00 | 10 Apr 2026 06:00 | $2.43 | $2.53 | +3.76% | BEAR | 32 | trail |
| 07 Apr 2026 01:00 | 08 Apr 2026 01:00 | $2.28 | $2.48 | +8.28% | BEAR | 25 | exit_fp |
| 06 Apr 2026 01:00 | 06 Apr 2026 10:00 | $2.30 | $2.38 | +3.23% | BEAR | 10 | exit_fp |
| 04 Apr 2026 06:00 | 05 Apr 2026 12:00 | $2.30 | $2.26 | -2.21% | BEAR | 31 | stop |
| 02 Apr 2026 11:00 | 03 Apr 2026 17:00 | $2.22 | $2.29 | +2.82% | BEAR | 31 | trail |
| 31 Mar 2026 06:00 | 31 Mar 2026 23:00 | $2.28 | $2.30 | +0.93% | BEAR | 18 | signal |
| 29 Mar 2026 23:00 | 30 Mar 2026 16:00 | $2.20 | $2.28 | +3.38% | BEAR | 18 | exit_fp |
| 28 Mar 2026 01:00 | 28 Mar 2026 13:00 | $2.22 | $2.28 | +2.59% | BEAR | 13 | signal |
| 26 Mar 2026 18:00 | 27 Mar 2026 00:00 | $2.28 | $2.31 | +1.11% | BEAR | 7 | signal |
| 24 Mar 2026 18:00 | 24 Mar 2026 20:00 | $2.35 | $2.41 | +2.25% | BEAR | 3 | signal |
| 22 Mar 2026 21:00 | 23 Mar 2026 22:00 | $2.34 | $2.40 | +2.13% | BEAR | 26 | trail |
| 20 Mar 2026 01:00 | 20 Mar 2026 10:00 | $2.54 | $2.54 | -0.37% | BEAR | 10 | signal |
| 16 Mar 2026 03:00 | 17 Mar 2026 00:00 | $2.68 | $2.77 | +2.98% | BEAR | 22 | signal |
| 13 Mar 2026 23:00 | 15 Mar 2026 09:00 | $2.61 | $2.67 | +1.98% | BEAR | 35 | trail |
| 12 Mar 2026 03:00 | 13 Mar 2026 00:00 | $2.58 | $2.68 | +3.82% | BEAR | 22 | signal |
| 11 Mar 2026 01:00 | 11 Mar 2026 08:00 | $2.41 | $2.70 | +11.88% | BEAR | 8 | exit_fp |
| 08 Mar 2026 01:00 | 09 Mar 2026 18:00 | $2.41 | $2.48 | +2.67% | BEAR | 42 | trail |
| 05 Mar 2026 17:00 | 06 Mar 2026 08:00 | $2.48 | $2.57 | +3.45% | BEAR | 16 | signal |
| 03 Mar 2026 20:00 | 04 Mar 2026 08:00 | $2.43 | $2.61 | +7.01% | BEAR | 13 | exit_fp |
| 01 Mar 2026 21:00 | 02 Mar 2026 15:00 | $2.37 | $2.53 | +6.58% | BEAR | 19 | exit_fp |
| 28 Feb 2026 07:00 | 01 Mar 2026 01:00 | $2.35 | $2.50 | +6.24% | BEAR | 19 | exit_fp |
| 26 Feb 2026 15:00 | 27 Feb 2026 11:00 | $2.42 | $2.56 | +5.05% | BEAR | 21 | trail |
| 23 Feb 2026 18:00 | 25 Feb 2026 20:00 | $2.05 | $2.54 | +23.52% | BEAR | 51 | exit_fp |
| 19 Feb 2026 22:00 | 21 Feb 2026 13:00 | $2.16 | $2.27 | +4.78% | BEAR | 40 | signal |
| 16 Feb 2026 16:00 | 17 Feb 2026 00:00 | $2.36 | $2.42 | +1.99% | BEAR | 9 | signal |
| 13 Feb 2026 01:00 | 14 Feb 2026 04:00 | $2.33 | $2.40 | +2.92% | BEAR | 28 | trail |
| 11 Feb 2026 17:00 | 12 Feb 2026 09:00 | $2.33 | $2.46 | +5.52% | BEAR | 17 | exit_fp |
| 10 Feb 2026 15:00 | 11 Feb 2026 00:00 | $2.37 | $2.39 | +0.40% | BEAR | 10 | signal |
| 07 Feb 2026 08:00 | 07 Feb 2026 18:00 | $2.44 | $2.52 | +3.21% | BEAR | 11 | signal |
| 06 Feb 2026 01:00 | 06 Feb 2026 16:00 | $2.29 | $2.53 | +10.33% | BEAR | 16 | exit_fp |
| 03 Feb 2026 18:00 | 04 Feb 2026 07:00 | $2.55 | $2.74 | +7.20% | BEAR | 14 | exit_fp |
| 02 Feb 2026 11:00 | 02 Feb 2026 15:00 | $2.67 | $2.79 | +4.25% | SIDEWAYS | 5 | exit_fp |
| 01 Feb 2026 22:00 | 01 Feb 2026 22:00 | $2.65 | $2.65 | -0.19% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 31 Jan 2026 17:00 | 01 Feb 2026 01:00 | $2.63 | $2.75 | +4.36% | SIDEWAYS | 9 | exit_fp |
| 29 Jan 2026 16:00 | 29 Jan 2026 16:00 | $3.10 | $3.10 | -0.19% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 25 Jan 2026 20:00 | 26 Jan 2026 16:00 | $3.23 | $3.38 | +4.60% | SIDEWAYS | 21 | exit_fp |
| 19 Jan 2026 00:00 | 19 Jan 2026 08:00 | $3.74 | $4.32 | +15.47% | SIDEWAYS | 9 | exit_fp |
| 17 Jan 2026 12:00 | 18 Jan 2026 10:00 | $3.95 | $4.02 | +1.71% | SIDEWAYS | 23 | signal |
| 15 Jan 2026 17:00 | 16 Jan 2026 00:00 | $4.17 | $4.33 | +3.79% | SIDEWAYS | 8 | signal |
| 15 Jan 2026 03:00 | 15 Jan 2026 03:00 | $4.39 | $4.39 | -0.19% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 14 Jan 2026 05:00 | 14 Jan 2026 10:00 | $3.60 | $3.83 | +6.22% | SIDEWAYS | 6 | exit_fp |
| 12 Jan 2026 13:00 | 13 Jan 2026 16:00 | $3.09 | $3.56 | +14.88% | SIDEWAYS | 28 | signal |
| 11 Jan 2026 23:00 | 11 Jan 2026 23:00 | $3.15 | $3.15 | -0.19% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 08 Jan 2026 13:00 | 09 Jan 2026 15:00 | $3.11 | $3.28 | +5.36% | SIDEWAYS | 27 | exit_fp |
| 06 Jan 2026 18:00 | 06 Jan 2026 21:00 | $3.29 | $3.39 | +2.97% | SIDEWAYS | 4 | signal |
| 05 Jan 2026 20:00 | 06 Jan 2026 00:00 | $3.41 | $3.40 | -0.28% | SIDEWAYS | 5 | signal |
| 05 Jan 2026 06:00 | 05 Jan 2026 07:00 | $3.24 | $3.25 | +0.06% | SIDEWAYS | 2 | signal |
| 03 Jan 2026 15:00 | 04 Jan 2026 16:00 | $3.10 | $3.29 | +5.83% | SIDEWAYS | 26 | exit_fp |
| 02 Jan 2026 06:00 | 03 Jan 2026 00:00 | $3.01 | $3.19 | +5.71% | SIDEWAYS | 19 | exit_fp |
Start Trading Internet Computer Smarter
These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time ICP signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.
85.9% Win Rate
Sharpe 12.77
370 Trades
Free Plan Available
