Chainlink (LINK) Backtest
Walk-forward validated backtest results for Chainlink. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.
Model 2.5.8.3
•
2 Walk-Forward Folds
•
May 2020 – Apr 2026
•
$9.1600 (-2.66%)
Chainlink (LINK) is the dominant decentralized oracle network, providing real-world data to smart contracts across multiple blockchains. With integrations across virtually every major DeFi protocol, LINK is essential infrastructure for the entire crypto ecosystem. Price movements correlate with DeFi activity and new integration announcements. LINK's established position and high liquidity make it a reliable asset for algorithmic trading.
Performance Overview
Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.
Sharpe Ratio
11.89
Win Rate
88.2%
Max Drawdown
-8.1%
Total Trades
533
Sortino Ratio
13.49
Profit Factor
32.19
Exposure
40.2%
Beats B&H
2/2
Equity Curve
Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each fold starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.
Regime Breakdown
Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.
| Regime | Trades | Win Rate | Avg PnL | Profit Factor | Avg Bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUBBLE | 270 | 93.3% | +6.45% | 23.93 | 23.4 |
| BULL | 104 | 80.7% | +5.70% | 10.08 | 39.8 |
| SIDEWAYS | 591 | 87.3% | +3.59% | 45.94 | 18.2 |
| BEAR | 101 | 87.6% | +4.30% | 55.02 | 16.9 |
Per-Fold Results
Each fold is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.
| Fold | Period | Sharpe | Return | MaxDD | Win Rate | Trades | B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May '20 – Apr '24 | 11.99 | 2,247,573x | -5.3% | 85.7% | 784 | Yes |
| 2 | Apr '24 – Apr '26 | 11.78 | 2,962x | -8.1% | 90.8% | 282 | Yes |
Trade Log
Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Dec 2025 – Apr 2026).
Compound Return
+149.2%
Win Rate
90.0%
45W / 5L
Max Drawdown
-1.3%
€10,000 Invested
€24,915
2.5x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
| Entry | Exit | Entry Price | Exit Price | PnL | Regime | Bars | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2026 01:00 | 14 Apr 2026 05:00 | $8.82 | $9.17 | +3.79% | BEAR | 29 | trail |
| 10 Apr 2026 16:00 | 11 Apr 2026 09:00 | $9.12 | $9.03 | -1.10% | BEAR | 18 | signal |
| 09 Apr 2026 01:00 | 10 Apr 2026 03:00 | $8.76 | $8.93 | +1.81% | BEAR | 27 | trail |
| 07 Apr 2026 01:00 | 07 Apr 2026 23:00 | $8.76 | $9.29 | +5.92% | BEAR | 23 | exit_fp |
| 05 Apr 2026 13:00 | 06 Apr 2026 01:00 | $8.53 | $8.88 | +3.92% | BEAR | 13 | signal |
| 04 Apr 2026 20:00 | 05 Apr 2026 00:00 | $8.70 | $8.68 | -0.34% | BEAR | 5 | signal |
| 02 Apr 2026 12:00 | 03 Apr 2026 22:00 | $8.47 | $8.67 | +2.14% | BEAR | 35 | trail |
| 31 Mar 2026 01:00 | 01 Apr 2026 06:00 | $8.79 | $9.09 | +3.24% | BEAR | 30 | signal |
| 29 Mar 2026 14:00 | 30 Mar 2026 12:00 | $8.43 | $8.87 | +5.11% | BEAR | 23 | exit_fp |
| 24 Mar 2026 14:00 | 25 Mar 2026 08:00 | $9.12 | $9.36 | +2.53% | BEAR | 19 | signal |
| 22 Mar 2026 21:00 | 24 Mar 2026 00:00 | $8.65 | $9.09 | +4.82% | BEAR | 28 | trail |
| 16 Mar 2026 02:00 | 16 Mar 2026 10:00 | $9.49 | $9.73 | +2.34% | BEAR | 9 | signal |
| 14 Mar 2026 07:00 | 15 Mar 2026 13:00 | $8.98 | $9.21 | +2.28% | BEAR | 31 | trail |
| 11 Mar 2026 06:00 | 11 Mar 2026 20:00 | $8.95 | $9.06 | +1.16% | BEAR | 15 | signal |
| 10 Mar 2026 12:00 | 10 Mar 2026 16:00 | $9.05 | $9.15 | +1.04% | BEAR | 5 | exit_fp |
| 08 Mar 2026 17:00 | 09 Mar 2026 23:00 | $8.56 | $8.87 | +3.46% | BEAR | 31 | trail |
| 03 Mar 2026 09:00 | 04 Mar 2026 15:00 | $8.64 | $9.50 | +9.79% | BEAR | 31 | exit_fp |
| 01 Mar 2026 20:00 | 02 Mar 2026 16:00 | $8.56 | $9.15 | +6.73% | BEAR | 21 | exit_fp |
| 28 Feb 2026 07:00 | 28 Feb 2026 20:00 | $8.35 | $8.84 | +5.64% | BEAR | 14 | exit_fp |
| 26 Feb 2026 17:00 | 26 Feb 2026 19:00 | $8.88 | $9.10 | +2.27% | BEAR | 3 | signal |
| 24 Feb 2026 13:00 | 25 Feb 2026 16:00 | $8.10 | $9.44 | +16.45% | BEAR | 28 | exit_fp |
| 19 Feb 2026 14:00 | 21 Feb 2026 01:00 | $8.48 | $8.95 | +5.38% | BEAR | 36 | signal |
| 18 Feb 2026 22:00 | 19 Feb 2026 01:00 | $8.57 | $8.67 | +0.97% | BEAR | 4 | signal |
| 13 Feb 2026 02:00 | 14 Feb 2026 09:00 | $8.40 | $8.97 | +6.69% | BEAR | 32 | signal |
| 11 Feb 2026 10:00 | 12 Feb 2026 13:00 | $8.21 | $8.57 | +4.18% | BEAR | 28 | exit_fp |
| 09 Feb 2026 10:00 | 09 Feb 2026 19:00 | $8.49 | $8.96 | +5.38% | BEAR | 10 | exit_fp |
| 06 Feb 2026 17:00 | 07 Feb 2026 18:00 | $8.88 | $8.98 | +0.86% | BEAR | 26 | signal |
| 05 Feb 2026 21:00 | 06 Feb 2026 04:00 | $7.96 | $8.11 | +1.75% | BEAR | 8 | exit_fp |
| 03 Feb 2026 17:00 | 03 Feb 2026 21:00 | $9.30 | $9.67 | +3.85% | BEAR | 5 | signal |
| 02 Feb 2026 20:00 | 02 Feb 2026 22:00 | $9.73 | $9.83 | +0.87% | SIDEWAYS | 3 | signal |
| 02 Feb 2026 01:00 | 02 Feb 2026 03:00 | $9.54 | $9.36 | -2.11% | BEAR | 3 | regime_exit |
| 31 Jan 2026 16:00 | 31 Jan 2026 23:00 | $9.94 | $9.98 | +0.29% | SIDEWAYS | 8 | exit_fp |
| 25 Jan 2026 21:00 | 27 Jan 2026 05:00 | $11.50 | $11.97 | +3.92% | SIDEWAYS | 33 | signal |
| 21 Jan 2026 01:00 | 21 Jan 2026 21:00 | $12.30 | $12.60 | +2.28% | SIDEWAYS | 21 | exit_fp |
| 12 Jan 2026 15:00 | 13 Jan 2026 22:00 | $13.23 | $14.12 | +6.56% | SIDEWAYS | 32 | exit_fp |
| 11 Jan 2026 21:00 | 12 Jan 2026 02:00 | $13.19 | $13.42 | +1.58% | SIDEWAYS | 6 | exit_fp |
| 06 Jan 2026 18:00 | 06 Jan 2026 21:00 | $13.65 | $13.96 | +2.11% | SIDEWAYS | 4 | signal |
| 03 Jan 2026 07:00 | 04 Jan 2026 13:00 | $13.01 | $13.48 | +3.45% | SIDEWAYS | 31 | signal |
| 31 Dec 2025 23:00 | 02 Jan 2026 16:00 | $12.18 | $13.30 | +9.02% | SIDEWAYS | 42 | take_profit |
| 30 Dec 2025 03:00 | 30 Dec 2025 03:00 | $12.37 | $12.37 | -0.16% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 27 Dec 2025 02:00 | 28 Dec 2025 00:00 | $12.22 | $12.48 | +1.96% | SIDEWAYS | 23 | signal |
| 25 Dec 2025 23:00 | 26 Dec 2025 13:00 | $12.06 | $12.46 | +3.15% | BEAR | 15 | exit_fp |
| 20 Dec 2025 13:00 | 21 Dec 2025 00:00 | $12.61 | $12.55 | -0.63% | BEAR | 12 | signal |
| 19 Dec 2025 01:00 | 20 Dec 2025 00:00 | $11.88 | $12.54 | +5.32% | BEAR | 24 | regime_exit |
| 17 Dec 2025 22:00 | 18 Dec 2025 12:00 | $12.26 | $12.32 | +0.33% | SIDEWAYS | 15 | exit_fp |
| 13 Dec 2025 00:00 | 13 Dec 2025 14:00 | $13.63 | $13.72 | +0.50% | SIDEWAYS | 15 | signal |
| 11 Dec 2025 04:00 | 12 Dec 2025 08:00 | $13.66 | $13.99 | +2.25% | SIDEWAYS | 29 | signal |
| 09 Dec 2025 10:00 | 09 Dec 2025 16:00 | $13.70 | $14.84 | +8.15% | SIDEWAYS | 7 | exit_fp |
| 07 Dec 2025 15:00 | 08 Dec 2025 21:00 | $13.61 | $13.91 | +2.04% | SIDEWAYS | 31 | signal |
| 05 Dec 2025 17:00 | 06 Dec 2025 14:00 | $13.55 | $13.85 | +2.08% | SIDEWAYS | 22 | exit_fp |
Start Trading Chainlink Smarter
These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time LINK signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.
88.2% Win Rate
Sharpe 11.89
533 Trades
Free Plan Available
