Backtests / LUNA

Terra (LUNA) (LUNA) Backtest

Walk-forward validated backtest results for Terra (LUNA). The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.

1 Walk-Forward Fold Apr 2024 – Apr 2026 $0.056700 (-7.20%)

Performance Overview

Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.

Sharpe Ratio
9.79
Win Rate
90.0%
Max Drawdown
-9.2%
Total Trades
311
Sortino Ratio
12.22
Profit Factor
20.50
Exposure
35.3%
Beats B&H
1/1

Equity Curve

Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each fold starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.

Regime Breakdown

Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Profit Factor Avg Bars
BUBBLE 97 90.7% +3.78% 30.05 16.8
BULL 48 87.5% +4.23% 8.56 30.4
SIDEWAYS 112 93.8% +5.56% 46.32 21.9
BEAR 54 83.3% +2.81% 10.65 15.7

Trade Log

Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest.

Entry Exit Entry Price Exit Price PnL Regime Bars Exit Reason
$0.00 $0.00 +1.31% BUBBLE 8 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +3.07% BUBBLE 20 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +3.77% BUBBLE 25 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +0.01% BUBBLE 2 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +10.17% BULL 70 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +8.02% BULL 20 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +8.49% BULL 15 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +2.48% BULL 22 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +2.08% BULL 11 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +5.47% BULL 38 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +4.17% BULL 36 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +7.35% BULL 24 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +3.24% BUBBLE 10 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +4.36% BUBBLE 53 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +1.05% BUBBLE 24 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +27.07% BUBBLE 15 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +2.05% BUBBLE 6 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +2.20% BUBBLE 6 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +1.87% BUBBLE 31 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +3.10% BUBBLE 8 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +0.28% BUBBLE 4 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +2.05% BUBBLE 35 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +5.10% BUBBLE 27 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +6.36% BUBBLE 45 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +0.53% BUBBLE 2 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +5.34% BUBBLE 41 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +1.89% BUBBLE 23 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +4.62% SIDEWAYS 23 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +3.74% SIDEWAYS 18 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +5.38% SIDEWAYS 24 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +4.69% SIDEWAYS 14 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +9.40% SIDEWAYS 40 take_profit
$0.00 $0.00 +4.10% SIDEWAYS 35 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +13.03% SIDEWAYS 12 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +4.81% SIDEWAYS 10 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +1.90% BULL 11 signal
$0.00 $0.00 -5.25% BULL 34 stop
$0.00 $0.00 +5.59% BULL 39 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +1.32% BULL 17 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 -9.96% SIDEWAYS 9 stop
$0.00 $0.00 +3.26% SIDEWAYS 6 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +6.39% SIDEWAYS 24 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +8.42% SIDEWAYS 28 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +4.23% SIDEWAYS 13 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 +4.40% SIDEWAYS 46 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +3.91% SIDEWAYS 37 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +4.73% SIDEWAYS 28 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +8.75% SIDEWAYS 5 exit_fp
$0.00 $0.00 -1.17% SIDEWAYS 8 signal
$0.00 $0.00 +4.93% SIDEWAYS 10 signal

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90.0% Win Rate Sharpe 9.79 311 Trades Free Plan Available