Polygon (POL) Backtest
Walk-forward validated backtest results for Polygon. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.
Model 2.5.8.3
•
1 Walk-Forward Fold
•
Apr 2024 – Apr 2026
•
$0.089000 (-0.78%)
Polygon (POL, formerly MATIC) is an Ethereum scaling ecosystem offering multiple Layer 2 solutions including zkEVM, PoS chain, and CDK. Polygon is one of the most widely adopted scaling solutions with partnerships from major brands. POL price tracks Ethereum scaling narratives and Layer 2 competition dynamics, creating distinct trading patterns from the broader market.
Performance Overview
Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.
Sharpe Ratio
9.47
Win Rate
80.4%
Max Drawdown
-7.4%
Total Trades
368
Sortino Ratio
12.90
Profit Factor
27.62
Exposure
40.2%
Beats B&H
1/1
Equity Curve
Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each fold starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.
Regime Breakdown
Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.
| Regime | Trades | Win Rate | Avg PnL | Profit Factor | Avg Bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUBBLE | 128 | 73.4% | +2.74% | 28.05 | 12.5 |
| BULL | 42 | 85.7% | +6.52% | 18.40 | 40.6 |
| SIDEWAYS | 153 | 82.4% | +3.45% | 32.12 | 20.1 |
| BEAR | 45 | 88.9% | +5.15% | 37.36 | 23.0 |
Trade Log
Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Dec 2025 – Apr 2026).
Compound Return
+342.5%
Win Rate
88.0%
44W / 6L
Max Drawdown
-2.1%
€10,000 Invested
€44,249
4.4x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
| Entry | Exit | Entry Price | Exit Price | PnL | Regime | Bars | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Apr 2026 14:00 | 13 Apr 2026 13:00 | $0.20 | $0.20 | -0.52% | BEAR | 240 | time_stop |
| 02 Apr 2026 01:00 | 03 Apr 2026 01:00 | $0.09 | $0.20 | +118.33% | BEAR | 25 | exit_fp |
| 30 Mar 2026 21:00 | 31 Mar 2026 12:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | -2.78% | BEAR | 16 | stop |
| 29 Mar 2026 23:00 | 30 Mar 2026 07:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +3.42% | BEAR | 9 | exit_fp |
| 28 Mar 2026 01:00 | 28 Mar 2026 16:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +2.12% | BEAR | 16 | signal |
| 26 Mar 2026 20:00 | 26 Mar 2026 20:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | -0.41% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 24 Mar 2026 14:00 | 25 Mar 2026 16:00 | $0.09 | $0.10 | +2.75% | BEAR | 27 | signal |
| 23 Mar 2026 01:00 | 24 Mar 2026 01:00 | $0.09 | $0.10 | +2.20% | BEAR | 25 | trail |
| 19 Mar 2026 13:00 | 20 Mar 2026 08:00 | $0.10 | $0.10 | +1.73% | BEAR | 20 | trail |
| 16 Mar 2026 01:00 | 16 Mar 2026 11:00 | $0.10 | $0.10 | +2.74% | BEAR | 11 | signal |
| 13 Mar 2026 23:00 | 15 Mar 2026 12:00 | $0.10 | $0.10 | +0.53% | BEAR | 38 | trail |
| 11 Mar 2026 06:00 | 12 Mar 2026 10:00 | $0.10 | $0.10 | +2.06% | BEAR | 29 | signal |
| 07 Mar 2026 21:00 | 10 Mar 2026 17:00 | $0.10 | $0.10 | +2.62% | BEAR | 69 | signal |
| 03 Mar 2026 09:00 | 04 Mar 2026 15:00 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +6.89% | BEAR | 31 | exit_fp |
| 02 Mar 2026 13:00 | 02 Mar 2026 14:00 | $0.10 | $0.10 | +2.14% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 01 Mar 2026 18:00 | 02 Mar 2026 00:00 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +1.68% | BEAR | 7 | signal |
| 28 Feb 2026 13:00 | 01 Mar 2026 00:00 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +2.63% | BEAR | 12 | signal |
| 27 Feb 2026 22:00 | 28 Feb 2026 00:00 | $0.11 | $0.11 | +0.33% | BEAR | 3 | signal |
| 26 Feb 2026 17:00 | 27 Feb 2026 06:00 | $0.11 | $0.11 | +4.70% | BEAR | 14 | exit_fp |
| 24 Feb 2026 05:00 | 25 Feb 2026 01:00 | $0.10 | $0.12 | +10.06% | BEAR | 21 | exit_fp |
| 23 Feb 2026 01:00 | 23 Feb 2026 13:00 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +7.69% | BEAR | 13 | exit_fp |
| 19 Feb 2026 14:00 | 21 Feb 2026 15:00 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +9.41% | BEAR | 50 | exit_fp |
| 16 Feb 2026 08:00 | 18 Feb 2026 00:00 | $0.11 | $0.11 | +1.33% | BEAR | 41 | trail |
| 14 Feb 2026 01:00 | 14 Feb 2026 11:00 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +4.88% | BEAR | 11 | signal |
| 11 Feb 2026 13:00 | 13 Feb 2026 04:00 | $0.09 | $0.10 | +5.96% | BEAR | 40 | trail |
| 10 Feb 2026 19:00 | 11 Feb 2026 00:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +0.58% | BEAR | 6 | signal |
| 09 Feb 2026 13:00 | 09 Feb 2026 14:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +0.88% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 07 Feb 2026 14:00 | 07 Feb 2026 23:00 | $0.10 | $0.10 | +0.83% | BEAR | 10 | signal |
| 06 Feb 2026 11:00 | 06 Feb 2026 17:00 | $0.10 | $0.10 | +1.86% | BEAR | 7 | exit_fp |
| 05 Feb 2026 21:00 | 05 Feb 2026 22:00 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +3.49% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 04 Feb 2026 15:00 | 05 Feb 2026 00:00 | $0.11 | $0.11 | +1.84% | BEAR | 10 | signal |
| 03 Feb 2026 03:00 | 03 Feb 2026 07:00 | $0.11 | $0.11 | -0.41% | BEAR | 5 | signal |
| 01 Feb 2026 22:00 | 02 Feb 2026 06:00 | $0.10 | $0.10 | -2.25% | BEAR | 9 | regime_exit |
| 31 Jan 2026 17:00 | 01 Feb 2026 01:00 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +5.06% | SIDEWAYS | 9 | exit_fp |
| 30 Jan 2026 07:00 | 30 Jan 2026 07:00 | $0.11 | $0.11 | -0.41% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 27 Jan 2026 11:00 | 28 Jan 2026 11:00 | $0.12 | $0.12 | +2.90% | SIDEWAYS | 25 | exit_fp |
| 25 Jan 2026 20:00 | 26 Jan 2026 13:00 | $0.12 | $0.12 | +4.17% | SIDEWAYS | 18 | exit_fp |
| 20 Jan 2026 17:00 | 21 Jan 2026 15:00 | $0.13 | $0.14 | +7.26% | SIDEWAYS | 23 | exit_fp |
| 19 Jan 2026 01:00 | 19 Jan 2026 03:00 | $0.13 | $0.14 | +2.69% | SIDEWAYS | 3 | signal |
| 16 Jan 2026 14:00 | 17 Jan 2026 08:00 | $0.14 | $0.15 | +2.31% | SIDEWAYS | 19 | exit_fp |
| 13 Jan 2026 01:00 | 13 Jan 2026 19:00 | $0.15 | $0.16 | +6.90% | SIDEWAYS | 19 | exit_fp |
| 11 Jan 2026 15:00 | 11 Jan 2026 17:00 | $0.16 | $0.17 | +4.37% | SIDEWAYS | 3 | signal |
| 10 Jan 2026 02:00 | 10 Jan 2026 06:00 | $0.16 | $0.17 | +8.71% | SIDEWAYS | 5 | exit_fp |
| 08 Jan 2026 00:00 | 09 Jan 2026 13:00 | $0.13 | $0.15 | +17.97% | SIDEWAYS | 38 | exit_fp |
| 06 Jan 2026 18:00 | 07 Jan 2026 08:00 | $0.13 | $0.13 | +3.39% | SIDEWAYS | 15 | exit_fp |
| 05 Jan 2026 17:00 | 06 Jan 2026 04:00 | $0.13 | $0.13 | +0.94% | SIDEWAYS | 12 | signal |
| 03 Jan 2026 16:00 | 04 Jan 2026 16:00 | $0.11 | $0.12 | +6.61% | SIDEWAYS | 25 | exit_fp |
| 02 Jan 2026 22:00 | 03 Jan 2026 03:00 | $0.11 | $0.12 | +2.23% | SIDEWAYS | 6 | exit_fp |
| 01 Jan 2026 01:00 | 02 Jan 2026 09:00 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +9.24% | SIDEWAYS | 33 | take_profit |
| 27 Dec 2025 04:00 | 28 Dec 2025 02:00 | $0.10 | $0.11 | +3.11% | SIDEWAYS | 23 | exit_fp |
Start Trading Polygon Smarter
These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time POL signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.
80.4% Win Rate
Sharpe 9.47
368 Trades
Free Plan Available
