Toncoin (TON) Backtest
Walk-forward validated backtest results for Toncoin. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.
2 Walk-Forward Folds
•
Jun 2025 – Apr 2026
•
$1.2960 (-7.16%)
Performance Overview
Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.
Sharpe Ratio
8.57
Win Rate
78.5%
Max Drawdown
-4.1%
Total Trades
66
Sortino Ratio
14.10
Profit Factor
24.94
Exposure
23.4%
Beats B&H
2/2
Equity Curve
Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each fold starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.
Regime Breakdown
Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.
| Regime | Trades | Win Rate | Avg PnL | Profit Factor | Avg Bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUBBLE | 23 | 73.9% | +1.71% | 28.43 | 9.7 |
| BULL | 18 | 100.0% | +2.58% | 0.00 | 24.4 |
| SIDEWAYS | 88 | 79.4% | +1.51% | 24.96 | 12.4 |
| BEAR | 2 | 0.0% | -0.96% | 0.00 | 6.0 |
Per-Fold Results
Each fold is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.
| Fold | Period | Sharpe | Return | MaxDD | Win Rate | Trades | B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jun '25 – Nov '25 | 11.30 | 363% | -4.1% | 83.1% | 89 | Yes |
| 3 | Nov '25 – Apr '26 | 5.84 | 50% | -2.6% | 73.8% | 42 | Yes |
Trade Log
Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest.
Compound Return
+142.0%
Win Rate
86.0%
43W / 7L
Max Drawdown
-0.5%
€10,000 Invested
€24,198
2.4x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
| Entry | Exit | Entry Price | Exit Price | PnL | Regime | Bars | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +0.61% | BULL | 10 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +1.89% | BULL | 45 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +3.62% | SIDEWAYS | 13 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +0.93% | SIDEWAYS | 5 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +0.79% | SIDEWAYS | 4 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +0.40% | BULL | 45 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +3.14% | BULL | 25 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +5.73% | BULL | 30 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +2.38% | BULL | 19 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +2.00% | BULL | 15 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +0.52% | BUBBLE | 2 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | -0.19% | BUBBLE | 1 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +1.95% | BUBBLE | 8 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | -0.19% | BUBBLE | 1 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +2.20% | BUBBLE | 15 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +0.55% | BUBBLE | 2 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +2.94% | BUBBLE | 7 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +0.73% | BUBBLE | 2 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +3.63% | BUBBLE | 42 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +0.05% | BUBBLE | 4 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | -0.19% | BUBBLE | 1 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +4.80% | BUBBLE | 4 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | -0.54% | BUBBLE | 8 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +2.59% | BUBBLE | 5 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +8.21% | BUBBLE | 41 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +1.41% | BUBBLE | 7 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +3.40% | BUBBLE | 25 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +5.15% | BUBBLE | 30 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +1.50% | BUBBLE | 12 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +0.72% | BUBBLE | 2 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | -0.16% | BUBBLE | 1 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | -0.16% | BUBBLE | 1 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +0.31% | BUBBLE | 2 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +6.28% | BULL | 45 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +2.25% | BULL | 13 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +3.40% | BULL | 42 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +1.30% | BULL | 8 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +2.99% | BULL | 19 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +1.07% | BULL | 60 | trail | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +2.87% | SIDEWAYS | 31 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +2.93% | SIDEWAYS | 11 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +3.86% | SIDEWAYS | 56 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +0.94% | SIDEWAYS | 5 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +0.51% | SIDEWAYS | 21 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +3.00% | SIDEWAYS | 38 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +1.98% | SIDEWAYS | 6 | exit_fp | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +3.20% | SIDEWAYS | 31 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | -0.41% | SIDEWAYS | 4 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +0.19% | SIDEWAYS | 4 | signal | ||
| $0.00 | $0.00 | +1.38% | SIDEWAYS | 25 | signal |
Start Trading Toncoin Smarter
These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time TON signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.
78.5% Win Rate
Sharpe 8.57
66 Trades
Free Plan Available
