TRON (TRX) Backtest
Walk-forward validated backtest results for TRON. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.
Model 2.5.8.3
•
2 Walk-Forward Folds
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May 2020 – Apr 2026
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$0.331300 (+1.01%)
TRON (TRX) is a blockchain platform focused on decentralized content sharing and has become a major network for USDT stablecoin transfers, particularly in Asia. With consistently high transaction volumes and a deflationary token mechanism, TRX shows steady price patterns with periodic momentum bursts. Its relative stability compared to other altcoins makes it suitable for systematic trading strategies.
Performance Overview
Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.
Sharpe Ratio
7.18
Win Rate
66.9%
Max Drawdown
-11.9%
Total Trades
643
Sortino Ratio
7.50
Profit Factor
6.86
Exposure
39.0%
Beats B&H
2/2
Equity Curve
Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each fold starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.
Regime Breakdown
Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.
| Regime | Trades | Win Rate | Avg PnL | Profit Factor | Avg Bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUBBLE | 389 | 68.6% | +1.45% | 6.54 | 13.0 |
| BULL | 158 | 69.0% | +1.44% | 7.20 | 21.7 |
| SIDEWAYS | 622 | 64.3% | +1.19% | 8.07 | 17.6 |
| BEAR | 117 | 69.8% | +1.33% | 7.56 | 15.6 |
Per-Fold Results
Each fold is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.
| Fold | Period | Sharpe | Return | MaxDD | Win Rate | Trades | B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May '20 – Apr '24 | 7.62 | 2,982x | -6.8% | 69.2% | 825 | Yes |
| 2 | Apr '24 – Apr '26 | 6.73 | 11.3x | -11.9% | 64.6% | 461 | Yes |
Trade Log
Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Jan 2026 – Apr 2026).
Compound Return
+21.8%
Win Rate
68.0%
34W / 16L
Max Drawdown
-0.7%
€10,000 Invested
€12,179
1.2x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
| Entry | Exit | Entry Price | Exit Price | PnL | Regime | Bars | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2026 21:00 | 15 Apr 2026 00:00 | $0.32 | $0.32 | +0.75% | BEAR | 28 | signal |
| 13 Apr 2026 02:00 | 13 Apr 2026 08:00 | $0.32 | $0.32 | +0.22% | BEAR | 7 | signal |
| 10 Apr 2026 20:00 | 12 Apr 2026 13:00 | $0.32 | $0.32 | +0.88% | BEAR | 42 | signal |
| 09 Apr 2026 14:00 | 10 Apr 2026 07:00 | $0.32 | $0.32 | +0.02% | BEAR | 18 | trail |
| 07 Apr 2026 13:00 | 09 Apr 2026 01:00 | $0.31 | $0.32 | +0.69% | BEAR | 37 | trail |
| 06 Apr 2026 17:00 | 07 Apr 2026 00:00 | $0.32 | $0.32 | -0.34% | BEAR | 8 | signal |
| 05 Apr 2026 13:00 | 06 Apr 2026 00:00 | $0.32 | $0.32 | -0.43% | BEAR | 12 | signal |
| 02 Apr 2026 15:00 | 04 Apr 2026 22:00 | $0.31 | $0.32 | +0.64% | BEAR | 56 | signal |
| 31 Mar 2026 14:00 | 02 Apr 2026 02:00 | $0.31 | $0.32 | +0.29% | BEAR | 37 | trail |
| 30 Mar 2026 21:00 | 31 Mar 2026 00:00 | $0.32 | $0.32 | -0.47% | BEAR | 4 | signal |
| 29 Mar 2026 11:00 | 30 Mar 2026 08:00 | $0.32 | $0.32 | +0.28% | BEAR | 22 | trail |
| 27 Mar 2026 21:00 | 28 Mar 2026 22:00 | $0.31 | $0.32 | +1.51% | BEAR | 26 | trail |
| 26 Mar 2026 13:00 | 27 Mar 2026 08:00 | $0.31 | $0.32 | +1.13% | BEAR | 20 | signal |
| 25 Mar 2026 01:00 | 26 Mar 2026 00:00 | $0.31 | $0.31 | +1.85% | BEAR | 24 | trail |
| 24 Mar 2026 00:00 | 24 Mar 2026 12:00 | $0.31 | $0.31 | +0.53% | BEAR | 13 | signal |
| 23 Mar 2026 05:00 | 23 Mar 2026 11:00 | $0.31 | $0.31 | -0.41% | BEAR | 7 | signal |
| 22 Mar 2026 13:00 | 22 Mar 2026 16:00 | $0.31 | $0.32 | +0.84% | BEAR | 4 | signal |
| 21 Mar 2026 13:00 | 22 Mar 2026 00:00 | $0.31 | $0.31 | +0.37% | BEAR | 12 | signal |
| 20 Mar 2026 03:00 | 21 Mar 2026 00:00 | $0.30 | $0.31 | +1.07% | BEAR | 22 | trail |
| 19 Mar 2026 13:00 | 19 Mar 2026 14:00 | $0.30 | $0.30 | -0.41% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 18 Mar 2026 13:00 | 19 Mar 2026 00:00 | $0.30 | $0.30 | +0.38% | BEAR | 12 | signal |
| 16 Mar 2026 21:00 | 18 Mar 2026 00:00 | $0.30 | $0.31 | +3.97% | BEAR | 28 | exit_fp |
| 14 Mar 2026 21:00 | 16 Mar 2026 00:00 | $0.30 | $0.30 | -0.17% | BEAR | 28 | signal |
| 12 Mar 2026 13:00 | 14 Mar 2026 08:00 | $0.29 | $0.29 | +1.16% | BEAR | 44 | trail |
| 09 Mar 2026 11:00 | 12 Mar 2026 00:00 | $0.29 | $0.29 | +1.55% | BEAR | 62 | signal |
| 08 Mar 2026 17:00 | 08 Mar 2026 20:00 | $0.29 | $0.29 | -0.06% | BEAR | 4 | signal |
| 07 Mar 2026 01:00 | 08 Mar 2026 04:00 | $0.28 | $0.29 | -0.05% | BEAR | 28 | trail |
| 05 Mar 2026 13:00 | 06 Mar 2026 12:00 | $0.28 | $0.29 | +0.82% | BEAR | 24 | signal |
| 04 Mar 2026 12:00 | 05 Mar 2026 00:00 | $0.28 | $0.29 | +0.64% | BEAR | 13 | signal |
| 03 Mar 2026 23:00 | 03 Mar 2026 23:00 | $0.28 | $0.28 | -0.41% | BEAR | 1 | signal |
| 01 Mar 2026 20:00 | 03 Mar 2026 00:00 | $0.28 | $0.28 | +0.73% | BEAR | 29 | exit_fp |
| 28 Feb 2026 13:00 | 01 Mar 2026 03:00 | $0.28 | $0.28 | +0.19% | BEAR | 15 | trail |
| 27 Feb 2026 17:00 | 28 Feb 2026 00:00 | $0.28 | $0.28 | -0.41% | BEAR | 8 | signal |
| 26 Feb 2026 00:00 | 26 Feb 2026 15:00 | $0.29 | $0.29 | -0.16% | BEAR | 16 | signal |
| 23 Feb 2026 17:00 | 25 Feb 2026 11:00 | $0.28 | $0.29 | +0.83% | BEAR | 43 | trail |
| 22 Feb 2026 18:00 | 23 Feb 2026 00:00 | $0.29 | $0.29 | -0.55% | BEAR | 7 | signal |
| 21 Feb 2026 10:00 | 22 Feb 2026 05:00 | $0.29 | $0.29 | +0.21% | BEAR | 20 | trail |
| 20 Feb 2026 19:00 | 20 Feb 2026 21:00 | $0.29 | $0.29 | -0.27% | BEAR | 3 | signal |
| 18 Feb 2026 20:00 | 20 Feb 2026 02:00 | $0.28 | $0.28 | +1.34% | BEAR | 31 | trail |
| 17 Feb 2026 13:00 | 18 Feb 2026 04:00 | $0.28 | $0.28 | -0.02% | BEAR | 16 | signal |
| 15 Feb 2026 13:00 | 17 Feb 2026 00:00 | $0.28 | $0.29 | +1.22% | BEAR | 36 | signal |
| 13 Feb 2026 00:00 | 14 Feb 2026 18:00 | $0.28 | $0.28 | +0.66% | BEAR | 43 | signal |
| 11 Feb 2026 13:00 | 12 Feb 2026 11:00 | $0.28 | $0.28 | +0.62% | BEAR | 23 | trail |
| 10 Feb 2026 13:00 | 11 Feb 2026 00:00 | $0.28 | $0.28 | -0.30% | BEAR | 12 | signal |
| 07 Feb 2026 20:00 | 10 Feb 2026 00:00 | $0.28 | $0.28 | +0.06% | BEAR | 53 | signal |
| 05 Feb 2026 21:00 | 07 Feb 2026 07:00 | $0.27 | $0.27 | +0.57% | BEAR | 35 | trail |
| 30 Jan 2026 10:00 | 30 Jan 2026 11:00 | $0.29 | $0.29 | -0.13% | SIDEWAYS | 2 | signal |
| 29 Jan 2026 17:00 | 29 Jan 2026 19:00 | $0.29 | $0.29 | +0.24% | SIDEWAYS | 3 | signal |
| 28 Jan 2026 15:00 | 28 Jan 2026 22:00 | $0.29 | $0.30 | +0.92% | SIDEWAYS | 8 | signal |
| 27 Jan 2026 15:00 | 27 Jan 2026 16:00 | $0.29 | $0.30 | +0.03% | SIDEWAYS | 2 | signal |
Start Trading TRON Smarter
These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time TRX signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.
66.9% Win Rate
Sharpe 7.18
643 Trades
Free Plan Available
