Stellar (XLM) Backtest
Walk-forward validated backtest results for Stellar. The model is trained on historical data and tested exclusively on unseen future data.
Model 2.5.8.3
•
2 Walk-Forward Folds
•
May 2020 – Apr 2026
•
$0.168700 (-0.18%)
Stellar (XLM) is an open-source network for cross-border payments and asset tokenization, originally forked from Ripple. With partnerships including MoneyGram and various central banks exploring CBDCs, XLM price responds to payments industry developments. Its lower volatility compared to other altcoins provides steadier trading patterns with reliable mean-reversion characteristics.
Performance Overview
Key risk-adjusted metrics from the walk-forward backtest. Sharpe above 3.0 is excellent; win rate above 75% demonstrates consistent signal quality.
Sharpe Ratio
10.30
Win Rate
80.4%
Max Drawdown
-11.8%
Total Trades
507
Sortino Ratio
10.61
Profit Factor
20.69
Exposure
34.7%
Beats B&H
2/2
Equity Curve
Cumulative portfolio growth on a logarithmic scale. Each fold starts at 1x. A smooth, upward-sloping curve indicates consistent compounding with controlled drawdowns.
Regime Breakdown
Performance segmented by market condition. The model adapts entry thresholds, position sizing, and exit timing to each regime. Consistent profitability across all regimes demonstrates true robustness.
| Regime | Trades | Win Rate | Avg PnL | Profit Factor | Avg Bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUBBLE | 322 | 73.1% | +3.68% | 27.38 | 14.2 |
| BULL | 112 | 87.9% | +6.51% | 25.22 | 29.7 |
| SIDEWAYS | 498 | 82.7% | +2.84% | 24.36 | 18.7 |
| BEAR | 81 | 91.4% | +4.08% | 37.93 | 18.7 |
Per-Fold Results
Each fold is an independent out-of-sample test period aligned with a Bitcoin halving cycle. The model is trained on earlier cycles and tested on the next — never seeing the test data during training.
| Fold | Period | Sharpe | Return | MaxDD | Win Rate | Trades | B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May '20 – Apr '24 | 9.94 | 348,995x | -11.8% | 83.6% | 652 | Yes |
| 2 | Apr '24 – Apr '26 | 10.66 | 2,871x | -7.5% | 77.3% | 361 | Yes |
Trade Log
Most recent 50 trades from the walk-forward backtest (Dec 2025 – Apr 2026).
Compound Return
+241.9%
Win Rate
92.0%
46W / 4L
Max Drawdown
-2.4%
€10,000 Invested
€34,186
3.4x return
Based on last 50 trades, compounded sequentially. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
| Entry | Exit | Entry Price | Exit Price | PnL | Regime | Bars | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr 2026 12:00 | 14 Apr 2026 13:00 | $0.16 | $0.16 | +1.38% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 13 Apr 2026 00:00 | 13 Apr 2026 23:00 | $0.15 | $0.16 | +3.02% | BEAR | 24 | exit_fp |
| 07 Apr 2026 01:00 | 08 Apr 2026 01:00 | $0.16 | $0.16 | +5.28% | BEAR | 25 | exit_fp |
| 05 Apr 2026 12:00 | 06 Apr 2026 00:00 | $0.16 | $0.16 | +2.49% | BEAR | 13 | exit_fp |
| 31 Mar 2026 11:00 | 01 Apr 2026 10:00 | $0.16 | $0.17 | +4.36% | BEAR | 24 | exit_fp |
| 29 Mar 2026 20:00 | 30 Mar 2026 08:00 | $0.16 | $0.17 | +4.43% | BEAR | 13 | exit_fp |
| 24 Mar 2026 14:00 | 25 Mar 2026 07:00 | $0.17 | $0.18 | +7.30% | BEAR | 18 | signal |
| 22 Mar 2026 22:00 | 24 Mar 2026 01:00 | $0.16 | $0.16 | +4.55% | BEAR | 28 | trail |
| 16 Mar 2026 01:00 | 16 Mar 2026 08:00 | $0.17 | $0.17 | +1.55% | BEAR | 8 | signal |
| 14 Mar 2026 01:00 | 15 Mar 2026 12:00 | $0.16 | $0.17 | +1.64% | BEAR | 36 | exit_fp |
| 12 Mar 2026 14:00 | 13 Mar 2026 12:00 | $0.16 | $0.17 | +5.08% | BEAR | 23 | exit_fp |
| 11 Mar 2026 06:00 | 12 Mar 2026 01:00 | $0.16 | $0.16 | +1.11% | BEAR | 20 | trail |
| 10 Mar 2026 02:00 | 10 Mar 2026 12:00 | $0.15 | $0.16 | +3.92% | BEAR | 11 | signal |
| 08 Mar 2026 23:00 | 09 Mar 2026 13:00 | $0.15 | $0.15 | +2.14% | BEAR | 15 | exit_fp |
| 03 Mar 2026 13:00 | 04 Mar 2026 15:00 | $0.15 | $0.16 | +6.85% | BEAR | 27 | exit_fp |
| 01 Mar 2026 20:00 | 02 Mar 2026 15:00 | $0.15 | $0.16 | +4.82% | BEAR | 20 | exit_fp |
| 28 Feb 2026 09:00 | 28 Feb 2026 22:00 | $0.15 | $0.16 | +7.23% | BEAR | 14 | exit_fp |
| 26 Feb 2026 17:00 | 27 Feb 2026 04:00 | $0.16 | $0.16 | +2.78% | BEAR | 12 | exit_fp |
| 24 Feb 2026 05:00 | 25 Feb 2026 20:00 | $0.15 | $0.17 | +11.54% | BEAR | 40 | exit_fp |
| 23 Feb 2026 02:00 | 23 Feb 2026 12:00 | $0.15 | $0.16 | +3.49% | BEAR | 11 | exit_fp |
| 20 Feb 2026 14:00 | 20 Feb 2026 21:00 | $0.16 | $0.16 | +0.40% | BEAR | 8 | signal |
| 12 Feb 2026 23:00 | 14 Feb 2026 18:00 | $0.16 | $0.18 | +11.57% | BEAR | 44 | signal |
| 11 Feb 2026 16:00 | 12 Feb 2026 10:00 | $0.15 | $0.16 | +6.06% | BEAR | 19 | exit_fp |
| 10 Feb 2026 13:00 | 10 Feb 2026 15:00 | $0.16 | $0.16 | +1.63% | BEAR | 3 | signal |
| 07 Feb 2026 08:00 | 08 Feb 2026 14:00 | $0.16 | $0.16 | +2.47% | BEAR | 31 | signal |
| 06 Feb 2026 00:00 | 06 Feb 2026 15:00 | $0.15 | $0.17 | +9.42% | BEAR | 16 | exit_fp |
| 03 Feb 2026 15:00 | 03 Feb 2026 18:00 | $0.18 | $0.17 | -6.39% | BEAR | 4 | stop |
| 02 Feb 2026 01:00 | 02 Feb 2026 13:00 | $0.18 | $0.18 | +1.84% | BEAR | 13 | exit_fp |
| 31 Jan 2026 17:00 | 01 Feb 2026 02:00 | $0.17 | $0.18 | +4.56% | SIDEWAYS | 10 | exit_fp |
| 27 Jan 2026 03:00 | 28 Jan 2026 09:00 | $0.21 | $0.21 | +0.93% | SIDEWAYS | 31 | signal |
| 25 Jan 2026 20:00 | 26 Jan 2026 14:00 | $0.20 | $0.21 | +3.23% | SIDEWAYS | 19 | exit_fp |
| 23 Jan 2026 09:00 | 23 Jan 2026 11:00 | $0.21 | $0.21 | +0.45% | SIDEWAYS | 3 | signal |
| 20 Jan 2026 22:00 | 21 Jan 2026 15:00 | $0.21 | $0.22 | +3.34% | SIDEWAYS | 18 | exit_fp |
| 19 Jan 2026 01:00 | 19 Jan 2026 20:00 | $0.21 | $0.22 | +2.64% | SIDEWAYS | 20 | exit_fp |
| 16 Jan 2026 15:00 | 17 Jan 2026 19:00 | $0.22 | $0.24 | +5.75% | SIDEWAYS | 29 | exit_fp |
| 12 Jan 2026 12:00 | 13 Jan 2026 22:00 | $0.22 | $0.24 | +9.25% | SIDEWAYS | 35 | take_profit |
| 11 Jan 2026 23:00 | 11 Jan 2026 23:00 | $0.22 | $0.22 | -0.41% | SIDEWAYS | 1 | signal |
| 03 Jan 2026 10:00 | 04 Jan 2026 16:00 | $0.22 | $0.24 | +7.10% | SIDEWAYS | 31 | signal |
| 31 Dec 2025 19:00 | 02 Jan 2026 21:00 | $0.20 | $0.22 | +9.66% | SIDEWAYS | 51 | take_profit |
| 27 Dec 2025 11:00 | 28 Dec 2025 08:00 | $0.22 | $0.22 | +3.05% | SIDEWAYS | 22 | signal |
| 25 Dec 2025 23:00 | 26 Dec 2025 12:00 | $0.21 | $0.22 | +2.48% | BEAR | 14 | exit_fp |
| 23 Dec 2025 09:00 | 23 Dec 2025 10:00 | $0.22 | $0.22 | +0.19% | BEAR | 2 | signal |
| 21 Dec 2025 22:00 | 22 Dec 2025 13:00 | $0.22 | $0.22 | +3.27% | BEAR | 16 | exit_fp |
| 20 Dec 2025 13:00 | 21 Dec 2025 08:00 | $0.22 | $0.22 | -0.50% | BEAR | 20 | signal |
| 19 Dec 2025 02:00 | 20 Dec 2025 00:00 | $0.21 | $0.22 | +5.70% | BEAR | 23 | regime_exit |
| 18 Dec 2025 04:00 | 18 Dec 2025 13:00 | $0.21 | $0.22 | +2.66% | SIDEWAYS | 10 | exit_fp |
| 11 Dec 2025 03:00 | 11 Dec 2025 06:00 | $0.24 | $0.24 | +0.42% | SIDEWAYS | 4 | signal |
| 09 Dec 2025 20:00 | 10 Dec 2025 04:00 | $0.25 | $0.25 | -1.19% | SIDEWAYS | 9 | signal |
| 07 Dec 2025 15:00 | 09 Dec 2025 07:00 | $0.24 | $0.24 | +0.70% | SIDEWAYS | 41 | trail |
| 01 Dec 2025 14:00 | 02 Dec 2025 20:00 | $0.23 | $0.26 | +9.81% | SIDEWAYS | 31 | take_profit |
Start Trading Stellar Smarter
These backtest results demonstrate what our model can do. Get real-time XLM signals delivered to your Telegram with every entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.
80.4% Win Rate
Sharpe 10.30
507 Trades
Free Plan Available
