Paper Trades / ARB / ARB — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná)
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ARB Arbitrum Paper Trade

ARB — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0 (Itzamná) model.

v4.0 (Itzamná) • 14 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Arbitrum (ARB) is the governance token of the Arbitrum network, the largest Ethereum Layer 2 by total value locked. Arbitrum uses optimistic rollups to provide faster and cheaper transactions while inheriting Ethereum's security. ARB price is influenced by Layer 2 adoption metrics, DeFi activity, and Ethereum scaling narratives. Its relatively young market history provides fresh price patterns for our model to exploit.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ ARB Signals →

ARB — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) Performancev4.2 Theros

Arbitrum (ARB) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+82.1%
€10,000 →
€18,209
Win Rate
91.7%
13W / 1L
Trades
14
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Risk / Reward
0.00×
B&H Return
+0.00%
Max Drawdown
-3.55%
Avg Drawdown
0.00%
Wins / Losses
13W / 1L
Model
v4.0 (Itzamná)
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+87.48%
▼ -5.39
Win Rate
100.0%
▼ -8.30
Sharpe
14.28
▼ -14.28
Alpha vs B&H
+115.98pp
▼ -115.98
Max DD
0.00%
▼ -3.55
Avg DD
-3.38%
▲ +3.38
Risk / Reward
99+×
Trades
14
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ THIS PAGE
Return
+82.09%
Win Rate
91.7%
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Max DD
-3.55%
Avg DD
0.00%
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
14
V2.5.8.3
Return
+91.86%
▼ -9.77
Win Rate
68.2%
▲ +23.50
Sharpe
0.00
≈
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
≈
Max DD
-5.75%
▲ +2.20
Avg DD
0.00%
≈
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
22
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

ARB

ARB Monthly Returns (v4.0 Itzamná)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +87.5%
14t
 		+78.8%
16t
 		+58.3%
11t
 		+55.9%
9t
 		+137.5%
15t
 		+74.6%
12t
 		+117.3%
18t
 		+190.1%
14t
—
—
—
—
 +21,516.3%

All months for ARB under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — ARB — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
+2.8
6
—
7
—
8
+0.4
9
+2.3
10
0.0
11
—
12
—
13
—
14
—
15
+16.4
16
—
17
—
18
+7.7
19
+6.9
20
+6.6
21
+8.2
22
—
23
+0.4
24
+2.9
25
+1.3
26
—
27
+2.8
28
—
29
—
30
—
31
+5.2
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +82.1% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 91.7% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +3.65% on 13 trades, WR 92%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 13 92.3% +3.65% +58.64% 13h
BULL 1 100.0% +16.38% +16.38% 2.4d

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 14 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
05 Jan 2025 13:00 05 Jan 2025 21:00 $0.89 $0.91 +2.79% BUBBLE 9h
08 Jan 2025 17:00 08 Jan 2025 23:00 $0.78 $0.79 +0.39% BUBBLE 7h
09 Jan 2025 14:00 09 Jan 2025 16:00 $0.75 $0.77 +2.27% BUBBLE 3h
10 Jan 2025 05:00 10 Jan 2025 18:00 $0.75 $0.75 -0.04% BUBBLE 14h
13 Jan 2025 13:00 15 Jan 2025 22:00 $0.68 $0.79 +16.38% BULL 2.4d
16 Jan 2025 15:00 18 Jan 2025 00:00 $0.77 $0.83 +7.68% BUBBLE 1.4d
19 Jan 2025 12:00 19 Jan 2025 14:00 $0.72 $0.77 +6.93% BUBBLE 3h
20 Jan 2025 03:00 20 Jan 2025 08:00 $0.70 $0.75 +6.63% BUBBLE 6h
21 Jan 2025 01:00 21 Jan 2025 18:00 $0.68 $0.74 +8.22% BUBBLE 18h
23 Jan 2025 03:00 23 Jan 2025 07:00 $0.69 $0.70 +0.41% BUBBLE 5h
23 Jan 2025 20:00 24 Jan 2025 04:00 $0.70 $0.72 +2.86% BUBBLE 9h
25 Jan 2025 01:00 25 Jan 2025 03:00 $0.69 $0.71 +1.28% BUBBLE 3h
27 Jan 2025 11:00 27 Jan 2025 15:00 $0.62 $0.64 +2.84% BUBBLE 5h
28 Jan 2025 21:00 31 Jan 2025 03:00 $0.59 $0.62 +5.21% BUBBLE 2.3d

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live ARB signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Arbitrum Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time ARB signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → ARB Signals → View Plans →
91.7% Win Rate +82.1% Return -3.6% Max Drawdown Net of Fees