Paper Trades / ARB / ARB — February 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná)
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ARB Arbitrum Paper Trade

ARB — February 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0 (Itzamná) model.

v4.0 (Itzamná) • 12 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Arbitrum (ARB) is the governance token of the Arbitrum network, the largest Ethereum Layer 2 by total value locked. Arbitrum uses optimistic rollups to provide faster and cheaper transactions while inheriting Ethereum's security. ARB price is influenced by Layer 2 adoption metrics, DeFi activity, and Ethereum scaling narratives. Its relatively young market history provides fresh price patterns for our model to exploit.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ ARB Signals →

ARB — February 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) Performancev4.2 Theros

Arbitrum (ARB) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+65.2%
€10,000 →
€16,516
Win Rate
93.8%
11W / 1L
Trades
12
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Risk / Reward
0.00×
B&H Return
+0.00%
Max Drawdown
-3.32%
Avg Drawdown
0.00%
Wins / Losses
11W / 1L
Model
v4.0 (Itzamná)
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+78.79%
▼ -13.63
Win Rate
93.8%
▲ +0.05
Sharpe
16.45
▼ -16.45
Alpha vs B&H
+106.89pp
▼ -106.89
Max DD
-0.55%
▼ -2.77
Avg DD
-2.27%
▲ +2.27
Risk / Reward
99+×
Trades
16
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ THIS PAGE
Return
+65.16%
Win Rate
93.8%
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Max DD
-3.32%
Avg DD
0.00%
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
12
V2.5.8.3
Return
+56.57%
▲ +8.59
Win Rate
90.9%
▲ +2.90
Sharpe
0.00
≈
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
≈
Max DD
-0.21%
▼ -3.11
Avg DD
0.00%
≈
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
22
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

ARB

ARB Monthly Returns (v4.0 Itzamná)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +87.5%
14t
 		+78.8%
16t
 		+58.3%
11t
 		+55.9%
9t
 		+137.5%
15t
 		+74.6%
12t
 		+117.3%
18t
 		+190.1%
14t
—
—
—
—
 +21,516.3%

All months for ARB under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — ARB — February 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
+26.1
5
—
6
—
7
+3.1
8
—
9
+4.6
10
—
11
+10.2
12
+4.7
13
-0.5
14
+1.1
15
—
16
—
17
+2.7
18
—
19
—
20
+9.7
21
—
22
+2.8
23
—
24
—
25
—
26
+5.2
27
—
28
—
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +65.2% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 93.8% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +12.78% on 2 trades, WR 100%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 10 90.0% +4.35% +52.33% 23h
BUBBLE 2 100.0% +12.78% +26.09% 14h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 12 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
03 Feb 2025 01:00 04 Feb 2025 00:00 $0.40 $0.50 +23.29% BUBBLE 24h
04 Feb 2025 16:00 04 Feb 2025 18:00 $0.48 $0.49 +2.27% BUBBLE 3h
07 Feb 2025 06:00 07 Feb 2025 11:00 $0.44 $0.46 +3.10% SIDEWAYS 6h
08 Feb 2025 00:00 09 Feb 2025 04:00 $0.44 $0.46 +4.55% SIDEWAYS 1.2d
09 Feb 2025 22:00 11 Feb 2025 06:00 $0.44 $0.49 +10.18% SIDEWAYS 1.4d
12 Feb 2025 01:00 12 Feb 2025 23:00 $0.47 $0.49 +4.68% SIDEWAYS 23h
13 Feb 2025 15:00 13 Feb 2025 19:00 $0.48 $0.48 -0.55% SIDEWAYS 5h
14 Feb 2025 08:00 14 Feb 2025 14:00 $0.50 $0.50 +1.14% SIDEWAYS 7h
17 Feb 2025 01:00 17 Feb 2025 15:00 $0.48 $0.50 +2.68% SIDEWAYS 15h
18 Feb 2025 17:00 20 Feb 2025 20:00 $0.45 $0.49 +9.69% SIDEWAYS 2.2d
21 Feb 2025 20:00 22 Feb 2025 23:00 $0.46 $0.48 +2.82% SIDEWAYS 1.2d
25 Feb 2025 01:00 26 Feb 2025 10:00 $0.40 $0.43 +5.19% SIDEWAYS 1.4d

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live ARB signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Arbitrum Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time ARB signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → ARB Signals → View Plans →
93.8% Win Rate +65.2% Return -3.3% Max Drawdown Net of Fees