Paper Trades / ARB / ARB — May 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná)
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ARB Arbitrum Paper Trade

ARB — May 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0 (Itzamná) model.

v4.0 (Itzamná) • 15 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Arbitrum (ARB) is the governance token of the Arbitrum network, the largest Ethereum Layer 2 by total value locked. Arbitrum uses optimistic rollups to provide faster and cheaper transactions while inheriting Ethereum's security. ARB price is influenced by Layer 2 adoption metrics, DeFi activity, and Ethereum scaling narratives. Its relatively young market history provides fresh price patterns for our model to exploit.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ ARB Signals →

ARB — May 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) Performancev4.2 Theros

Arbitrum (ARB) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+130.7%
€10,000 →
€23,074
Win Rate
77.8%
12W / 3L
Trades
15
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Risk / Reward
0.00×
B&H Return
+0.00%
Max Drawdown
-7.48%
Avg Drawdown
0.00%
Wins / Losses
12W / 3L
Model
v4.0 (Itzamná)
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+137.52%
▼ -6.78
Win Rate
86.7%
▼ -8.87
Sharpe
17.69
▼ -17.69
Alpha vs B&H
+131.30pp
▼ -131.30
Max DD
-1.17%
▼ -6.31
Avg DD
-4.65%
▲ +4.65
Risk / Reward
99+×
Trades
15
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ THIS PAGE
Return
+130.74%
Win Rate
77.8%
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Max DD
-7.48%
Avg DD
0.00%
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
15
V2.5.8.3
Return
+107.80%
▲ +22.94
Win Rate
78.9%
▼ -1.10
Sharpe
0.00
≈
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
≈
Max DD
-0.75%
▼ -6.73
Avg DD
0.00%
≈
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
19
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

ARB

ARB Monthly Returns (v4.0 Itzamná)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +87.5%
14t
 		+78.8%
16t
 		+58.3%
11t
 		+55.9%
9t
 		+137.5%
15t
 		+74.6%
12t
 		+117.3%
18t
 		+190.1%
14t
—
—
—
—
 +21,516.3%

All months for ARB under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — ARB — May 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
-1.2
6
—
7
—
8
—
9
+24.8
10
—
11
+26.3
12
+0.8
13
—
14
+6.2
15
—
16
-0.9
17
—
18
+7.2
19
—
20
+9.4
21
—
22
—
23
+7.5
24
+1.7
25
-0.4
26
+0.8
27
—
28
+3.3
29
+6.0
30
—
31
—
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +130.7% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Healthy win rate: 77.8%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +9.33% on 6 trades, WR 67%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BULL 6 66.7% +9.33% +65.20% 1.1d
BUBBLE 9 88.9% +3.93% +41.04% 14h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 15 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
05 May 2025 02:00 05 May 2025 10:00 $0.32 $0.31 -1.17% BULL 9h
06 May 2025 14:00 09 May 2025 12:00 $0.30 $0.38 +24.75% BULL 3d
10 May 2025 01:00 11 May 2025 03:00 $0.38 $0.48 +26.31% BULL 1.1d
11 May 2025 16:00 12 May 2025 01:00 $0.45 $0.45 +0.77% BULL 10h
13 May 2025 01:00 14 May 2025 02:00 $0.42 $0.45 +6.22% BULL 1.1d
15 May 2025 15:00 16 May 2025 11:00 $0.41 $0.41 -0.89% BULL 21h
18 May 2025 02:00 18 May 2025 15:00 $0.38 $0.41 +7.24% BUBBLE 14h
19 May 2025 05:00 20 May 2025 05:00 $0.37 $0.40 +6.72% BUBBLE 1d
20 May 2025 18:00 20 May 2025 22:00 $0.38 $0.39 +2.55% BUBBLE 5h
21 May 2025 18:00 23 May 2025 00:00 $0.40 $0.43 +7.53% BUBBLE 1.3d
24 May 2025 01:00 24 May 2025 04:00 $0.39 $0.40 +1.68% BUBBLE 4h
25 May 2025 09:00 25 May 2025 11:00 $0.38 $0.38 -0.44% BUBBLE 3h
26 May 2025 00:00 26 May 2025 07:00 $0.40 $0.41 +0.81% BUBBLE 8h
27 May 2025 02:00 28 May 2025 01:00 $0.39 $0.40 +3.34% BUBBLE 24h
28 May 2025 16:00 29 May 2025 01:00 $0.40 $0.43 +5.97% BUBBLE 10h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live ARB signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Arbitrum Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time ARB signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → ARB Signals → View Plans →
77.8% Win Rate +130.7% Return -7.5% Max Drawdown Net of Fees