Paper Trades / ARB / ARB — June 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná)
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ARB Arbitrum Paper Trade

ARB — June 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0 (Itzamná) model.

v4.0 (Itzamná) • 11 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Arbitrum (ARB) is the governance token of the Arbitrum network, the largest Ethereum Layer 2 by total value locked. Arbitrum uses optimistic rollups to provide faster and cheaper transactions while inheriting Ethereum's security. ARB price is influenced by Layer 2 adoption metrics, DeFi activity, and Ethereum scaling narratives. Its relatively young market history provides fresh price patterns for our model to exploit.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ ARB Signals →

ARB — June 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) Performancev4.2 Theros

Arbitrum (ARB) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+88.5%
€10,000 →
€18,854
Win Rate
86.7%
9W / 2L
Trades
11
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Risk / Reward
0.00×
B&H Return
+0.00%
Max Drawdown
-5.00%
Avg Drawdown
0.00%
Wins / Losses
9W / 2L
Model
v4.0 (Itzamná)
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+74.60%
▲ +13.94
Win Rate
75.0%
▲ +11.70
Sharpe
12.12
▼ -12.12
Alpha vs B&H
+73.48pp
▼ -73.48
Max DD
-1.76%
▼ -3.24
Avg DD
-3.34%
▲ +3.34
Risk / Reward
42.48×
Trades
12
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ THIS PAGE
Return
+88.54%
Win Rate
86.7%
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Max DD
-5.00%
Avg DD
0.00%
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
11
V2.5.8.3
Return
+51.71%
▲ +36.83
Win Rate
100.0%
▼ -13.30
Sharpe
0.00
≈
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
≈
Max DD
0.00%
▼ -5.00
Avg DD
0.00%
≈
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
11
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

ARB

ARB Monthly Returns (v4.0 Itzamná)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +87.5%
14t
 		+78.8%
16t
 		+58.3%
11t
 		+55.9%
9t
 		+137.5%
15t
 		+74.6%
12t
 		+117.3%
18t
 		+190.1%
14t
—
—
—
—
 +21,516.3%

All months for ARB under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — ARB — June 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
-1.8
2
—
3
+8.1
4
—
5
—
6
—
7
—
8
+4.0
9
—
10
+14.0
11
—
12
—
13
+1.4
14
—
15
—
16
+1.8
17
—
18
—
19
+3.3
20
—
21
—
22
-0.3
23
—
24
+14.6
25
—
26
—
27
—
28
+0.8
29
+22.8
30
—
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +88.5% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 86.7% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: SIDEWAYS — avg +9.44% on 3 trades, WR 67%.
  • ↓ Weakest regime: BUBBLE — avg -0.21% on 2 trades, WR 50%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BULL 6 100.0% +6.80% +46.32% 1.4d
SIDEWAYS 3 66.7% +9.44% +30.26% 23h
BUBBLE 2 50.0% -0.21% -0.43% 9h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 11 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
01 Jun 2025 02:00 01 Jun 2025 09:00 $0.34 $0.33 -1.76% BUBBLE 8h
02 Jun 2025 00:00 03 Jun 2025 14:00 $0.34 $0.37 +8.12% BULL 1.6d
06 Jun 2025 01:00 08 Jun 2025 07:00 $0.33 $0.34 +3.98% BULL 2.3d
08 Jun 2025 23:00 10 Jun 2025 11:00 $0.34 $0.39 +13.99% SIDEWAYS 1.5d
13 Jun 2025 02:00 13 Jun 2025 11:00 $0.33 $0.34 +1.35% BUBBLE 10h
15 Jun 2025 19:00 16 Jun 2025 04:00 $0.33 $0.33 +1.79% BULL 10h
18 Jun 2025 10:00 19 Jun 2025 06:00 $0.30 $0.31 +3.32% BULL 21h
22 Jun 2025 10:00 22 Jun 2025 12:00 $0.27 $0.27 -0.30% SIDEWAYS 3h
23 Jun 2025 01:00 24 Jun 2025 05:00 $0.27 $0.31 +14.62% SIDEWAYS 1.2d
26 Jun 2025 14:00 28 Jun 2025 15:00 $0.30 $0.31 +0.82% BULL 2.1d
29 Jun 2025 02:00 29 Jun 2025 22:00 $0.31 $0.38 +22.75% BULL 21h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live ARB signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Arbitrum Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time ARB signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → ARB Signals → View Plans →
86.7% Win Rate +88.5% Return -5.0% Max Drawdown Net of Fees