Paper Trades / ARB / ARB — July 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná)
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ARB Arbitrum Paper Trade

ARB — July 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0 (Itzamná) model.

v4.0 (Itzamná) • 16 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Arbitrum (ARB) is the governance token of the Arbitrum network, the largest Ethereum Layer 2 by total value locked. Arbitrum uses optimistic rollups to provide faster and cheaper transactions while inheriting Ethereum's security. ARB price is influenced by Layer 2 adoption metrics, DeFi activity, and Ethereum scaling narratives. Its relatively young market history provides fresh price patterns for our model to exploit.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ ARB Signals →

ARB — July 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) Performancev4.2 Theros

Arbitrum (ARB) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+113.8%
€10,000 →
€21,378
Win Rate
87.5%
14W / 2L
Trades
16
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Risk / Reward
0.00×
B&H Return
+0.00%
Max Drawdown
-5.72%
Avg Drawdown
0.00%
Wins / Losses
14W / 2L
Model
v4.0 (Itzamná)
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+117.34%
▼ -3.56
Win Rate
88.9%
▼ -1.39
Sharpe
15.95
▼ -15.95
Alpha vs B&H
+94.53pp
▼ -94.53
Max DD
-1.72%
▼ -4.00
Avg DD
-4.25%
▲ +4.25
Risk / Reward
68.24×
Trades
18
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ THIS PAGE
Return
+113.78%
Win Rate
87.5%
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Max DD
-5.72%
Avg DD
0.00%
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
16
V2.5.8.3
Return
+103.10%
▲ +10.68
Win Rate
76.0%
▲ +11.50
Sharpe
0.00
≈
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
≈
Max DD
-0.79%
▼ -4.93
Avg DD
0.00%
≈
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
25
Open page →

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

ARB

ARB Monthly Returns (v4.0 Itzamná)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +87.5%
14t
 		+78.8%
16t
 		+58.3%
11t
 		+55.9%
9t
 		+137.5%
15t
 		+74.6%
12t
 		+117.3%
18t
 		+190.1%
14t
—
—
—
—
 +21,516.3%

All months for ARB under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — ARB — July 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
—
6
—
7
+3.7
8
—
9
—
10
+20.2
11
—
12
+0.2
13
—
14
+6.2
15
—
16
+12.3
17
+4.7
18
+4.9
19
+4.3
20
+7.5
21
-0.5
22
—
23
+2.1
24
-0.1
25
—
26
—
27
+4.0
28
—
29
+4.7
30
—
31
+5.1
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +113.8% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 87.5% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +3.94% on 15 trades, WR 87%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 15 86.7% +3.94% +77.18% 17h
BULL 1 100.0% +20.15% +20.15% 3.1d

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 16 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
06 Jul 2025 02:00 07 Jul 2025 08:00 $0.32 $0.34 +3.70% BUBBLE 1.3d
07 Jul 2025 21:00 10 Jul 2025 23:00 $0.33 $0.40 +20.15% BULL 3.1d
11 Jul 2025 23:00 12 Jul 2025 01:00 $0.41 $0.41 +0.23% BUBBLE 3h
12 Jul 2025 14:00 14 Jul 2025 01:00 $0.39 $0.42 +6.17% BUBBLE 1.5d
15 Jul 2025 01:00 16 Jul 2025 14:00 $0.40 $0.45 +12.34% BUBBLE 1.6d
17 Jul 2025 03:00 17 Jul 2025 09:00 $0.43 $0.45 +4.73% BUBBLE 7h
17 Jul 2025 22:00 18 Jul 2025 09:00 $0.45 $0.47 +4.85% BUBBLE 12h
19 Jul 2025 01:00 19 Jul 2025 03:00 $0.45 $0.47 +4.25% BUBBLE 3h
20 Jul 2025 06:00 20 Jul 2025 16:00 $0.47 $0.50 +7.55% BUBBLE 11h
21 Jul 2025 05:00 21 Jul 2025 12:00 $0.49 $0.49 -0.55% BUBBLE 8h
22 Jul 2025 05:00 23 Jul 2025 00:00 $0.46 $0.47 +2.12% BUBBLE 20h
23 Jul 2025 21:00 24 Jul 2025 02:00 $0.43 $0.44 +1.65% BUBBLE 6h
24 Jul 2025 20:00 24 Jul 2025 22:00 $0.44 $0.44 -1.72% BUBBLE 3h
25 Jul 2025 11:00 27 Jul 2025 23:00 $0.44 $0.46 +3.99% BUBBLE 2.5d
29 Jul 2025 02:00 29 Jul 2025 06:00 $0.42 $0.45 +4.72% BUBBLE 5h
30 Jul 2025 13:00 31 Jul 2025 06:00 $0.41 $0.43 +5.07% BUBBLE 18h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live ARB signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Arbitrum Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time ARB signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → ARB Signals → View Plans →
87.5% Win Rate +113.8% Return -5.7% Max Drawdown Net of Fees