Paper Trades / TAO / TAO — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná)
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TAO Bittensor Paper Trade

TAO — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.0 (Itzamná) model.

v4.0 (Itzamná) • 17 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Backtest = Live (bit-identical) ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%) ✓ Forward-look-bias audited

Bittensor (TAO) is a decentralized machine learning network where participants are rewarded for contributing AI models. As the leading decentralized AI protocol, TAO prices are heavily influenced by AI sector developments and network growth metrics. The token shows strong momentum patterns during AI narrative cycles and has distinct volatility characteristics compared to other assets.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ TAO Signals →

TAO — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) Performancev4.2 Theros

Bittensor (TAO) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+114.2%
€10,000 →
€21,416
Win Rate
92.9%
16W / 1L
Trades
17
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Risk / Reward
0.00×
B&H Return
+0.00%
Max Drawdown
-9.16%
Avg Drawdown
0.00%
Wins / Losses
16W / 1L
Model
v4.0 (Itzamná)
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v4.0.1 (Pythia) is the current production model; v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge across 46 coins; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+95.35%
▲ +18.81
Win Rate
89.5%
▲ +3.43
Sharpe
11.70
▼ -11.70
Alpha vs B&H
+115.45pp
▼ -115.45
Max DD
-8.42%
▼ -0.74
Avg DD
-8.95%
▲ +8.95
Risk / Reward
11.32×
Trades
19
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ THIS PAGE
Return
+114.16%
Win Rate
92.9%
Sharpe
0.00
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
Max DD
-9.16%
Avg DD
0.00%
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
17

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

TAO

TAO Monthly Returns (v4.0 Itzamná)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025 +95.4%
19t
 		+122.7%
19t
 		+105.5%
12t
 		+136.9%
13t
 		+142.8%
15t
 		+86.8%
12t
 		+49.5%
14t
 		+72.1%
10t
—
—
—
—
 +24,624.4%

All months for TAO under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — TAO — January 2025 (v4.0 Itzamná) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
—
6
+2.0
7
—
8
—
9
+3.4
10
—
11
—
12
+2.3
13
—
14
+2.4
15
—
16
+9.6
17
—
18
+5.6
19
+7.1
20
+10.1
21
—
22
+1.1
23
—
24
+2.9
25
—
26
+16.1
27
—
28
+4.6
29
+6.1
30
+1.7
31
+4.2
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +114.2% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 92.9% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BULL — avg +4.78% on 3 trades, WR 100%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 14 92.9% +4.64% +86.73% 13h
BULL 3 100.0% +4.78% +14.86% 1.2d

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 17 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
06 Jan 2025 11:00 06 Jan 2025 17:00 $548.60 $561.80 +1.99% BUBBLE 7h
08 Jan 2025 13:00 09 Jan 2025 01:00 $469.50 $469.10 -0.19% BUBBLE 13h
09 Jan 2025 14:00 09 Jan 2025 16:00 $443.30 $459.70 +3.60% BUBBLE 3h
10 Jan 2025 05:00 12 Jan 2025 02:00 $437.30 $447.80 +2.30% BULL 1.9d
13 Jan 2025 07:00 14 Jan 2025 09:00 $419.40 $430.00 +2.42% BULL 1.1d
15 Jan 2025 11:00 16 Jan 2025 02:00 $405.90 $445.40 +9.62% BULL 16h
17 Jan 2025 09:00 18 Jan 2025 00:00 $465.60 $492.30 +5.63% BUBBLE 16h
19 Jan 2025 09:00 19 Jan 2025 16:00 $430.20 $462.70 +7.11% BUBBLE 8h
20 Jan 2025 05:00 20 Jan 2025 09:00 $422.30 $465.50 +10.12% BUBBLE 5h
20 Jan 2025 22:00 22 Jan 2025 01:00 $413.90 $419.00 +1.13% BUBBLE 1.2d
23 Jan 2025 22:00 24 Jan 2025 10:00 $378.10 $389.40 +2.89% BUBBLE 13h
25 Jan 2025 01:00 26 Jan 2025 13:00 $367.80 $427.50 +16.12% BUBBLE 1.5d
27 Jan 2025 02:00 28 Jan 2025 02:00 $417.50 $437.45 +4.63% BUBBLE 1d
28 Jan 2025 20:00 29 Jan 2025 03:00 $443.50 $466.50 +5.08% BUBBLE 8h
29 Jan 2025 19:00 29 Jan 2025 21:00 $459.00 $464.10 +1.01% BUBBLE 3h
30 Jan 2025 10:00 30 Jan 2025 13:00 $468.20 $476.50 +1.67% BUBBLE 4h
31 Jan 2025 04:00 31 Jan 2025 13:00 $446.50 $465.60 +4.17% BUBBLE 10h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live TAO signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Bittensor Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time TAO signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

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92.9% Win Rate +114.2% Return -9.2% Max Drawdown Net of Fees