ADAADACardano$0.161300-0.06%
24h High$0.17
24h Low$0.16
Volume$11.1M
Updated18:08 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / ADA / ADA — YTD 2026 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

ADA Cardano Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for ADA - Cardano. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the YTD 2026 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 63 trades would have compounded to a final value of $41,598 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros • 63 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Cardano (ADA) is a proof-of-stake blockchain founded by Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson. Distinguished by its academic approach and peer-reviewed research, Cardano emphasizes formal verification and methodical development. While its slower development pace has drawn criticism, it has built a loyal community and growing DeFi ecosystem. ADA tends to move with the broader altcoin market but with its own distinct momentum patterns during major updates.

Performance Price & Trades Trade Stats Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ ADA Signals →

ADA — YTD 2026 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Cardano (ADA) — year-to-date paper-trade 2026-01-01 → 2026-05-01, single OOS window, model trained on data up to 2025-12-31. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

YTD Return
+316.0%
$10,000 →
$41,598
Win Rate
81.0%
51W / 12L
Trades
63
Sharpe
11.61
Alpha vs B&H
+353.64pp
Risk / Reward
99+×
B&H Return
-37.66%
Max Drawdown
-2.29%
Avg Drawdown
-2.60%
Sharpe Trend
-8.16
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest
View →

Day-by-day — ADA — YTD 2026 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for ADA over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

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▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 63-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+3.25%
Avg Loss
-0.77%
Best Trade
+17.16%
Worst Trade
-2.29%
Avg Bars Held
16.4h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Signal flip: 23 (37%) Forward-pred: 23 (37%) Short signal: 8 (13%) Trailing stop: 7 (11%) Stop-loss: 2 (3%)
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +316.0% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 81.0% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -2.3%.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 63 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BEAR — avg +2.92% on 39 trades, WR 77%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BEAR 39 76.9% +2.92% +198.71% 17h
SIDEWAYS 24 87.5% +1.78% +52.12% 16h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 63 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
04 Jan 2026 02:00 05 Jan 2026 02:00 $0.39 $0.40 +2.30% SIDEWAYS 1d
05 Jan 2026 16:00 06 Jan 2026 00:00 $0.41 $0.42 +2.27% SIDEWAYS 9h
06 Jan 2026 18:00 06 Jan 2026 23:00 $0.41 $0.42 +2.37% SIDEWAYS 6h
08 Jan 2026 10:00 09 Jan 2026 01:00 $0.39 $0.40 +0.51% SIDEWAYS 16h
09 Jan 2026 15:00 09 Jan 2026 16:00 $0.40 $0.40 +0.77% SIDEWAYS 2h
10 Jan 2026 07:00 10 Jan 2026 10:00 $0.39 $0.39 +0.39% SIDEWAYS 4h
11 Jan 2026 01:00 11 Jan 2026 09:00 $0.39 $0.39 -0.13% SIDEWAYS 9h
11 Jan 2026 23:00 12 Jan 2026 01:00 $0.39 $0.39 +0.51% SIDEWAYS 3h
12 Jan 2026 14:00 12 Jan 2026 16:00 $0.39 $0.40 +1.74% SIDEWAYS 3h
13 Jan 2026 06:00 14 Jan 2026 00:00 $0.39 $0.42 +7.26% SIDEWAYS 19h
16 Jan 2026 05:00 16 Jan 2026 09:00 $0.39 $0.39 -0.69% SIDEWAYS 5h
16 Jan 2026 22:00 17 Jan 2026 15:00 $0.40 $0.40 +1.12% SIDEWAYS 18h
19 Jan 2026 01:00 19 Jan 2026 10:00 $0.36 $0.37 +1.65% SIDEWAYS 10h
21 Jan 2026 01:00 21 Jan 2026 15:00 $0.36 $0.36 +0.82% SIDEWAYS 15h
23 Jan 2026 15:00 23 Jan 2026 17:00 $0.36 $0.37 +1.11% SIDEWAYS 3h
25 Jan 2026 20:00 27 Jan 2026 13:00 $0.34 $0.35 +3.43% SIDEWAYS 1.8d
28 Jan 2026 04:00 28 Jan 2026 10:00 $0.36 $0.36 +0.80% SIDEWAYS 7h
31 Jan 2026 18:00 31 Jan 2026 23:00 $0.28 $0.29 +2.92% SIDEWAYS 6h
01 Feb 2026 02:00 01 Feb 2026 04:00 $0.30 $0.30 -0.11% BEAR 3h
02 Feb 2026 01:00 03 Feb 2026 09:00 $0.29 $0.30 +1.66% BEAR 1.4d
05 Feb 2026 23:00 06 Feb 2026 16:00 $0.25 $0.28 +12.94% BEAR 18h
07 Feb 2026 12:00 07 Feb 2026 14:00 $0.27 $0.27 -1.43% BEAR 3h
09 Feb 2026 10:00 09 Feb 2026 19:00 $0.26 $0.27 +3.60% BEAR 10h
11 Feb 2026 10:00 12 Feb 2026 12:00 $0.25 $0.27 +4.27% BEAR 1.1d
13 Feb 2026 01:00 14 Feb 2026 21:00 $0.26 $0.30 +12.26% BEAR 1.9d
16 Feb 2026 03:00 17 Feb 2026 01:00 $0.28 $0.28 +1.12% BEAR 23h
17 Feb 2026 15:00 17 Feb 2026 17:00 $0.28 $0.28 -0.44% BEAR 3h
19 Feb 2026 00:00 19 Feb 2026 04:00 $0.27 $0.27 +0.36% BEAR 5h
19 Feb 2026 17:00 20 Feb 2026 15:00 $0.27 $0.29 +6.76% BEAR 23h
22 Feb 2026 19:00 22 Feb 2026 23:00 $0.27 $0.27 +0.26% BEAR 5h
24 Feb 2026 10:00 25 Feb 2026 19:00 $0.26 $0.30 +17.16% BEAR 1.4d
26 Feb 2026 17:00 26 Feb 2026 21:00 $0.28 $0.29 +0.29% BEAR 5h
01 Mar 2026 02:00 01 Mar 2026 06:00 $0.29 $0.28 -2.25% BEAR 5h
01 Mar 2026 21:00 02 Mar 2026 00:00 $0.27 $0.28 +0.90% BEAR 4h
02 Mar 2026 13:00 02 Mar 2026 15:00 $0.27 $0.28 +4.79% BEAR 3h
04 Mar 2026 01:00 04 Mar 2026 19:00 $0.26 $0.28 +6.42% BEAR 19h
05 Mar 2026 18:00 05 Mar 2026 20:00 $0.27 $0.27 +0.48% BEAR 3h
06 Mar 2026 18:00 06 Mar 2026 20:00 $0.26 $0.26 -0.60% BEAR 3h
08 Mar 2026 05:00 08 Mar 2026 07:00 $0.25 $0.25 -0.33% BEAR 3h
08 Mar 2026 21:00 10 Mar 2026 13:00 $0.25 $0.26 +4.21% BEAR 1.7d
11 Mar 2026 06:00 12 Mar 2026 00:00 $0.26 $0.26 +1.01% BEAR 19h
12 Mar 2026 13:00 13 Mar 2026 11:00 $0.26 $0.27 +4.39% BEAR 23h
15 Mar 2026 02:00 16 Mar 2026 15:00 $0.27 $0.28 +6.44% BEAR 1.6d
17 Mar 2026 05:00 17 Mar 2026 22:00 $0.28 $0.29 +2.44% BEAR 18h
22 Mar 2026 22:00 24 Mar 2026 01:00 $0.25 $0.26 +2.70% BEAR 1.2d
24 Mar 2026 14:00 25 Mar 2026 12:00 $0.26 $0.27 +4.70% BEAR 23h
28 Mar 2026 03:00 28 Mar 2026 13:00 $0.24 $0.25 +1.87% BEAR 11h
29 Mar 2026 14:00 30 Mar 2026 11:00 $0.24 $0.25 +3.13% BEAR 22h
31 Mar 2026 11:00 01 Apr 2026 06:00 $0.24 $0.25 +4.09% BEAR 20h
02 Apr 2026 12:00 04 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.24 $0.25 +3.70% BEAR 1.5d
04 Apr 2026 17:00 05 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.25 $0.25 -0.57% BEAR 9h
05 Apr 2026 14:00 06 Apr 2026 01:00 $0.24 $0.25 +4.73% BEAR 12h
07 Apr 2026 00:00 07 Apr 2026 14:00 $0.25 $0.24 -2.29% BEAR 15h
09 Apr 2026 01:00 09 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.25 $0.26 +2.31% BEAR 17h
10 Apr 2026 15:00 10 Apr 2026 19:00 $0.25 $0.26 +1.20% BEAR 5h
11 Apr 2026 15:00 11 Apr 2026 17:00 $0.25 $0.25 -0.05% BEAR 3h
12 Apr 2026 20:00 14 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.24 $0.24 +1.80% BEAR 1.3d
14 Apr 2026 21:00 17 Apr 2026 02:00 $0.24 $0.26 +5.51% BEAR 2.3d
19 Apr 2026 22:00 22 Apr 2026 05:00 $0.24 $0.26 +5.10% SIDEWAYS 2.3d
23 Apr 2026 03:00 24 Apr 2026 18:00 $0.25 $0.25 +1.77% SIDEWAYS 1.7d
26 Apr 2026 07:00 26 Apr 2026 16:00 $0.25 $0.25 -0.37% SIDEWAYS 10h
27 Apr 2026 16:00 28 Apr 2026 00:00 $0.24 $0.25 +0.77% SIDEWAYS 9h
28 Apr 2026 15:00 29 Apr 2026 04:00 $0.25 $0.25 +0.80% SIDEWAYS 14h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live ADA signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Cardano Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time ADA signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

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81.0% Win Rate +316.0% Return -2.3% Max Drawdown Net of Fees