Paper Trades / BTC / BTC — January 2024 (v4.2 (Theros))
LEGACY · v4.2 (Theros)

BTC Bitcoin Paper Trade

BTC — January 2024 (v4.2 (Theros)) — Simulated live trading results using the v4.2 (Theros) model.

v4.2 (Theros) • 14 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a decentralized proof-of-work blockchain with a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Bitcoin is widely regarded as digital gold and serves as the benchmark asset for the entire crypto market. Its four-year halving cycles have historically driven major bull markets, making cycle-aware trading models particularly effective for BTC.

Performance Monthly Calendar Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ BTC Signals →

BTC — January 2024 (v4.2 (Theros)) Performance

Bitcoin (BTC) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+25.8%
€10,000 →
€12,577
Win Rate
85.7%
12W / 2L
Trades
14
Sharpe
11.21
Alpha vs B&H
+29.14pp
Risk / Reward
56.50×
B&H Return
-3.37%
Max Drawdown
-0.46%
Avg Drawdown
-2.20%
Sharpe Trend
+6.83
Model
v4.2 (Theros)
Full Backtest
View →
BTC

BTC Monthly Returns (legacy v2.5)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Σ
2025
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +25.1%
15t
 		+22.9%
14t
 		+20.3%
13t
 		+31.4%
15t
 		+32.1%
13t
 		+30.0%
15t
 		+317.1%
2026
—
—
—
 +18.9%
6t
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
 +18.9%

All months for BTC under this model. Click a cell to drill into that month's trade log. Color intensity = magnitude.

Day-by-day — BTC — January 2024 (v4.2 (Theros)) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
—
6
—
7
0.0
8
—
9
+6.4
10
—
11
+1.6
12
—
13
—
14
-0.5
15
+1.6
16
+1.2
17
—
18
+0.6
19
—
20
+0.7
21
—
22
—
23
+0.2
24
+3.1
25
—
26
—
27
+3.8
28
+1.3
29
—
30
+3.9
31
+1.2
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Solid return: +25.8%, comfortably above passive hold for most months.
  • ↑ High win rate: 85.7% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -0.5%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +2.30% on 4 trades, WR 75%.

Per-regime Breakdown

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 6 100.0% +2.23% +14.08% 23h
BUBBLE 4 75.0% +2.30% +9.37% 1.1d
BULL 4 75.0% +0.60% +2.42% 16h

Trade Log

All 14 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
$0.00 $0.00 -0.05% BULL 11h
$0.00 $0.00 +6.40% BUBBLE 1d
$0.00 $0.00 +1.64% BUBBLE 1.6d
$0.00 $0.00 -0.46% BUBBLE 21h
$0.00 $0.00 +1.60% BUBBLE 19h
$0.00 $0.00 +1.21% BULL 12h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.57% BULL 10h
$0.00 $0.00 +0.67% BULL 1.3d
$0.00 $0.00 +0.19% SIDEWAYS 5h
$0.00 $0.00 +3.12% SIDEWAYS 17h
$0.00 $0.00 +3.81% SIDEWAYS 2.4d
$0.00 $0.00 +1.25% SIDEWAYS 8h
$0.00 $0.00 +3.85% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
$0.00 $0.00 +1.16% SIDEWAYS 17h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each month starts fresh with a clean €10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous months. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that month. View live BTC signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Bitcoin Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time BTC signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

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85.7% Win Rate +25.8% Return -0.5% Max Drawdown Net of Fees