BTCBTCBitcoin$64,245.00+1.47%
24h High$64,388.00
24h Low$63,184.21
Volume$628.5M
Updated22:48 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / BTC / BTC — H2 2025 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

BTC Bitcoin Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for BTC - Bitcoin. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the H2-2025 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 81 trades would have compounded to a final value of $37,547 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros • 81 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a decentralized proof-of-work blockchain with a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Bitcoin is widely regarded as digital gold and serves as the benchmark asset for the entire crypto market. Its four-year halving cycles have historically driven major bull markets, making cycle-aware trading models particularly effective for BTC.

Performance Price & Trades Trade Stats Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ BTC Signals →

BTC — H2 2025 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Bitcoin (BTC) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+275.5%
$10,000 →
$37,547
Win Rate
96.3%
78W / 3L
Trades
81
Sharpe
12.43
Alpha vs B&H
+294.45pp
Risk / Reward
99+×
B&H Return
-18.99%
Max Drawdown
-0.37%
Avg Drawdown
-1.43%
Sharpe Trend
-5.17
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest
View →

Day-by-day — BTC — H2 2025 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for BTC over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 81-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+1.91%
Avg Loss
-0.33%
Best Trade
+8.03%
Worst Trade
-0.37%
Avg Bars Held
23.9h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Forward-pred: 43 (53%) Signal flip: 22 (27%) Trailing stop: 10 (12%) Short signal: 4 (5%) Take-profit: 1 (1%) Regime exit: 1 (1%)
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +275.5% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 96.3% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -0.4%.
  • ↑ Robust sample: 81 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +2.12% on 13 trades, WR 100%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 45 97.8% +1.92% +133.56% 24h
BUBBLE 13 100.0% +2.12% +30.98% 22h
BEAR 14 100.0% +1.57% +24.18% 21h
BULL 9 77.8% +1.33% +12.44% 1.3d

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 81 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
06 Jul 2025 14:00 08 Jul 2025 13:00 $108,933.25 $109,034.61 -0.32% BULL 2d
09 Jul 2025 13:00 11 Jul 2025 08:00 $109,184.00 $117,964.76 +7.93% BULL 1.8d
12 Jul 2025 21:00 14 Jul 2025 05:00 $117,485.22 $122,461.99 +4.13% BUBBLE 1.4d
15 Jul 2025 20:00 16 Jul 2025 16:00 $116,419.02 $119,291.91 +2.37% BUBBLE 21h
17 Jul 2025 09:00 17 Jul 2025 21:00 $118,769.34 $120,272.19 +1.16% BUBBLE 13h
21 Jul 2025 01:00 21 Jul 2025 14:00 $117,305.86 $118,828.99 +0.88% BUBBLE 14h
22 Jul 2025 03:00 23 Jul 2025 01:00 $117,210.00 $119,488.22 +1.84% BUBBLE 23h
23 Jul 2025 14:00 24 Jul 2025 00:00 $118,204.99 $119,060.00 +0.62% BUBBLE 11h
25 Jul 2025 09:00 26 Jul 2025 13:00 $116,033.44 $118,125.24 +1.70% BUBBLE 1.2d
27 Jul 2025 02:00 28 Jul 2025 01:00 $118,309.99 $119,037.77 +0.51% BUBBLE 24h
30 Jul 2025 13:00 30 Jul 2025 14:00 $117,675.79 $118,714.35 +0.78% BUBBLE 2h
03 Aug 2025 02:00 05 Aug 2025 02:00 $113,517.58 $114,719.27 +0.65% SIDEWAYS 2d
05 Aug 2025 15:00 07 Aug 2025 04:00 $112,934.00 $114,446.82 +1.20% BULL 1.6d
07 Aug 2025 17:00 08 Aug 2025 07:00 $116,511.54 $116,817.19 +0.16% BULL 15h
08 Aug 2025 22:00 09 Aug 2025 09:00 $116,888.90 $117,510.87 +0.43% BULL 12h
09 Aug 2025 22:00 11 Aug 2025 02:00 $116,541.63 $121,876.00 +4.47% BULL 1.2d
11 Aug 2025 21:00 14 Aug 2025 00:00 $118,712.61 $123,847.83 +4.22% BULL 2.2d
18 Aug 2025 14:00 19 Aug 2025 02:00 $115,633.73 $115,747.08 -0.31% BULL 13h
20 Aug 2025 01:00 21 Aug 2025 01:00 $112,996.93 $114,729.94 +1.43% BULL 1d
22 Aug 2025 01:00 23 Aug 2025 01:00 $112,840.08 $116,453.59 +3.10% SIDEWAYS 1d
23 Aug 2025 15:00 23 Aug 2025 22:00 $114,812.87 $115,317.85 +0.34% SIDEWAYS 8h
24 Aug 2025 20:00 24 Aug 2025 23:00 $112,770.39 $113,493.59 +0.54% SIDEWAYS 4h
26 Aug 2025 01:00 27 Aug 2025 07:00 $109,897.20 $110,772.41 +0.66% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
28 Aug 2025 01:00 28 Aug 2025 12:00 $111,647.70 $113,239.44 +1.32% SIDEWAYS 12h
01 Sep 2025 01:00 03 Sep 2025 17:00 $108,150.24 $112,312.64 +3.42% SIDEWAYS 2.7d
04 Sep 2025 06:00 04 Sep 2025 22:00 $110,393.95 $111,490.73 +0.89% SIDEWAYS 17h
05 Sep 2025 11:00 05 Sep 2025 12:00 $112,354.00 $113,214.78 +0.67% SIDEWAYS 2h
06 Sep 2025 01:00 09 Sep 2025 00:00 $110,867.70 $111,703.98 +0.61% SIDEWAYS 3d
09 Sep 2025 16:00 12 Sep 2025 00:00 $110,975.99 $115,840.69 +4.28% SIDEWAYS 2.4d
12 Sep 2025 13:00 13 Sep 2025 04:00 $115,166.45 $115,752.85 +0.37% SIDEWAYS 16h
14 Sep 2025 16:00 14 Sep 2025 21:00 $115,480.00 $116,058.88 +0.09% SIDEWAYS 6h
15 Sep 2025 10:00 17 Sep 2025 05:00 $114,769.04 $117,108.30 +1.94% SIDEWAYS 1.8d
17 Sep 2025 18:00 18 Sep 2025 18:00 $115,226.93 $117,822.97 +2.15% SIDEWAYS 1d
20 Sep 2025 04:00 20 Sep 2025 12:00 $115,568.41 $115,874.49 +0.16% SIDEWAYS 9h
23 Sep 2025 01:00 23 Sep 2025 07:00 $112,156.66 $113,090.13 +0.73% SIDEWAYS 7h
24 Sep 2025 01:00 24 Sep 2025 14:00 $112,451.26 $113,720.64 +1.03% SIDEWAYS 14h
28 Sep 2025 02:00 30 Sep 2025 00:00 $109,447.55 $114,525.97 +4.21% SIDEWAYS 2d
30 Sep 2025 13:00 30 Sep 2025 20:00 $113,404.53 $114,626.36 +0.98% SIDEWAYS 8h
01 Oct 2025 09:00 03 Oct 2025 07:00 $116,412.10 $119,850.69 +2.81% SIDEWAYS 2d
03 Oct 2025 20:00 05 Oct 2025 04:00 $122,447.94 $125,172.81 +2.12% SIDEWAYS 1.4d
05 Oct 2025 17:00 06 Oct 2025 16:00 $123,057.05 $125,455.24 +1.85% BUBBLE 24h
08 Oct 2025 01:00 08 Oct 2025 17:00 $121,950.01 $124,033.19 +1.61% BUBBLE 17h
12 Oct 2025 02:00 13 Oct 2025 00:00 $110,119.02 $115,280.84 +4.26% BULL 23h
14 Oct 2025 13:00 15 Oct 2025 00:00 $111,014.38 $112,993.86 +1.68% SIDEWAYS 12h
17 Oct 2025 09:00 20 Oct 2025 13:00 $104,531.35 $111,161.35 +6.24% SIDEWAYS 3.2d
21 Oct 2025 05:00 21 Oct 2025 14:00 $107,537.12 $112,170.52 +4.20% SIDEWAYS 10h
22 Oct 2025 22:00 23 Oct 2025 17:00 $107,196.82 $111,241.71 +3.67% SIDEWAYS 20h
24 Oct 2025 06:00 25 Oct 2025 12:00 $111,464.36 $111,899.03 +0.29% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
26 Oct 2025 02:00 27 Oct 2025 01:00 $111,448.85 $115,284.01 +3.02% SIDEWAYS 24h
30 Oct 2025 05:00 30 Oct 2025 07:00 $110,248.29 $111,366.72 +0.91% SIDEWAYS 3h
30 Oct 2025 20:00 31 Oct 2025 14:00 $107,510.91 $110,790.14 +2.95% SIDEWAYS 19h
01 Nov 2025 08:00 01 Nov 2025 13:00 $110,248.88 $109,946.27 -0.37% SIDEWAYS 6h
04 Nov 2025 22:00 05 Nov 2025 18:00 $101,295.71 $104,347.40 +2.91% SIDEWAYS 21h
06 Nov 2025 16:00 08 Nov 2025 05:00 $100,867.20 $102,364.02 +1.34% SIDEWAYS 1.6d
09 Nov 2025 02:00 10 Nov 2025 12:00 $101,633.25 $105,944.17 +3.82% SIDEWAYS 1.5d
11 Nov 2025 22:00 12 Nov 2025 02:00 $103,000.01 $103,151.66 +0.05% SIDEWAYS 5h
12 Nov 2025 20:00 13 Nov 2025 02:00 $101,539.01 $102,064.41 +0.42% SIDEWAYS 7h
15 Nov 2025 01:00 16 Nov 2025 03:00 $95,650.17 $95,825.02 +0.08% BEAR 1.1d
16 Nov 2025 19:00 17 Nov 2025 01:00 $94,020.00 $94,768.02 +0.69% BEAR 7h
18 Nov 2025 03:00 18 Nov 2025 15:00 $90,842.72 $92,910.10 +2.17% BEAR 13h
19 Nov 2025 06:00 19 Nov 2025 13:00 $90,990.87 $91,405.02 +0.35% BEAR 8h
21 Nov 2025 08:00 22 Nov 2025 21:00 $83,643.45 $84,487.89 +0.87% BEAR 1.6d
23 Nov 2025 02:00 23 Nov 2025 20:00 $86,000.34 $87,483.36 +1.31% BEAR 19h
24 Nov 2025 09:00 24 Nov 2025 20:00 $85,944.91 $89,089.06 +3.55% BEAR 12h
25 Nov 2025 09:00 27 Nov 2025 13:00 $87,231.76 $90,915.39 +4.08% BEAR 2.2d
28 Nov 2025 02:00 28 Nov 2025 13:00 $91,083.08 $92,377.01 +1.32% BEAR 12h
01 Dec 2025 16:00 02 Dec 2025 17:00 $84,571.80 $91,458.40 +8.03% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
03 Dec 2025 06:00 03 Dec 2025 21:00 $93,431.80 $93,700.00 +0.19% SIDEWAYS 16h
07 Dec 2025 02:00 07 Dec 2025 20:00 $89,621.96 $91,439.04 +1.61% SIDEWAYS 19h
08 Dec 2025 09:00 08 Dec 2025 10:00 $91,912.02 $92,133.40 +0.14% SIDEWAYS 2h
09 Dec 2025 01:00 09 Dec 2025 16:00 $90,055.80 $94,187.81 +4.48% SIDEWAYS 16h
11 Dec 2025 04:00 11 Dec 2025 20:00 $90,436.55 $91,792.99 +1.40% SIDEWAYS 17h
15 Dec 2025 19:00 17 Dec 2025 00:00 $86,149.96 $87,537.21 +1.47% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
17 Dec 2025 20:00 18 Dec 2025 04:00 $85,891.18 $86,765.43 +0.92% BEAR 9h
18 Dec 2025 20:00 19 Dec 2025 17:00 $84,582.65 $87,056.48 +2.78% BEAR 22h
21 Dec 2025 02:00 22 Dec 2025 12:00 $87,943.76 $90,208.48 +2.16% BEAR 1.5d
23 Dec 2025 05:00 23 Dec 2025 16:00 $87,765.01 $88,003.63 +0.17% BEAR 12h
24 Dec 2025 05:00 25 Dec 2025 10:00 $86,957.90 $87,420.23 +0.39% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
26 Dec 2025 00:00 26 Dec 2025 13:00 $87,120.00 $88,992.88 +2.05% SIDEWAYS 14h
27 Dec 2025 02:00 29 Dec 2025 01:00 $87,446.02 $88,445.57 +1.04% SIDEWAYS 2d
29 Dec 2025 14:00 31 Dec 2025 02:00 $87,429.96 $88,673.60 +1.32% SIDEWAYS 1.5d

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live BTC signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Bitcoin Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time BTC signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → BTC Signals → View Plans →
96.3% Win Rate +275.5% Return -0.4% Max Drawdown Net of Fees