BTCBTCBitcoin$63,440.00+0.37%
24h High$63,907.07
24h Low$62,866.99
Volume$658.9M
Updated14:43 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / BTC / BTC — Q4 2024 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

BTC Bitcoin Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for BTC - Bitcoin. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the Q4-2024 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 40 trades would have compounded to a final value of $22,787 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros • 40 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a decentralized proof-of-work blockchain with a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Bitcoin is widely regarded as digital gold and serves as the benchmark asset for the entire crypto market. Its four-year halving cycles have historically driven major bull markets, making cycle-aware trading models particularly effective for BTC.

Performance Price & Trades Trade Stats Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ BTC Signals →

BTC — Q4 2024 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Bitcoin (BTC) — compounded across 3 months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Quarterly Return
+127.9%
$10,000 →
$22,787
Win Rate
90.0%
36W / 4L
Trades
40
Sharpe
12.23
Alpha vs B&H
+76.01pp
Risk / Reward
30.31×
B&H Return
+51.86%
Max Drawdown
-4.22%
Avg Drawdown
-2.26%
Sharpe Trend
+13.65
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest
View →

Day-by-day — BTC — Q4 2024 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for BTC over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 40-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+2.91%
Avg Loss
-1.66%
Best Trade
+15.89%
Worst Trade
-2.47%
Avg Bars Held
25.1h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Forward-pred: 21 (53%) Signal flip: 8 (20%) Trailing stop: 7 (18%) Stop-loss: 3 (8%) Short signal: 1 (3%)
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +127.9% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ High win rate: 90.0% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +2.56% on 35 trades, WR 91%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 35 91.4% +2.56% +138.61% 1.1d
SIDEWAYS 5 80.0% +1.76% +8.92% 20h

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 40 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
06 Oct 2024 12:00 07 Oct 2024 00:00 $62,222.00 $63,677.98 +1.92% SIDEWAYS 13h
10 Oct 2024 01:00 10 Oct 2024 17:00 $60,803.02 $59,628.67 -2.07% SIDEWAYS 17h
11 Oct 2024 06:00 11 Oct 2024 19:00 $60,800.00 $63,086.01 +3.66% SIDEWAYS 14h
12 Oct 2024 08:00 13 Oct 2024 01:00 $62,725.58 $62,879.26 +0.14% SIDEWAYS 18h
13 Oct 2024 14:00 15 Oct 2024 03:00 $62,249.60 $65,534.64 +5.13% SIDEWAYS 1.6d
15 Oct 2024 16:00 19 Oct 2024 06:00 $66,868.20 $68,408.06 +2.16% SIDEWAYS 3.6d
20 Oct 2024 08:00 20 Oct 2024 22:00 $68,394.00 $69,137.28 +0.67% BUBBLE 15h
22 Oct 2024 14:00 22 Oct 2024 23:00 $67,559.03 $67,426.00 -0.30% BUBBLE 10h
23 Oct 2024 16:00 25 Oct 2024 01:00 $65,878.02 $67,969.70 +3.07% BUBBLE 1.4d
25 Oct 2024 18:00 29 Oct 2024 13:00 $67,026.61 $71,804.00 +7.02% BUBBLE 3.8d
03 Nov 2024 14:00 04 Nov 2024 01:00 $67,777.00 $68,970.01 +1.34% BUBBLE 12h
04 Nov 2024 21:00 05 Nov 2024 16:00 $67,120.57 $70,191.98 +4.47% BUBBLE 20h
06 Nov 2024 05:00 09 Nov 2024 12:00 $74,768.38 $76,347.49 +1.97% BULL 3.3d
10 Nov 2024 01:00 12 Nov 2024 00:00 $76,702.31 $88,978.57 +15.89% BUBBLE 2d
12 Nov 2024 13:00 12 Nov 2024 20:00 $86,330.52 $89,473.10 +3.54% BUBBLE 8h
13 Nov 2024 09:00 13 Nov 2024 14:00 $87,400.02 $91,508.00 +4.60% BUBBLE 6h
14 Nov 2024 23:00 16 Nov 2024 22:00 $87,325.59 $90,508.34 +3.50% BUBBLE 2d
17 Nov 2024 02:00 18 Nov 2024 06:00 $90,024.01 $92,061.84 +1.85% BUBBLE 1.2d
18 Nov 2024 19:00 19 Nov 2024 18:00 $90,608.26 $93,646.15 +3.25% BUBBLE 24h
20 Nov 2024 07:00 22 Nov 2024 14:00 $92,850.38 $97,611.69 +4.98% BUBBLE 2.3d
24 Nov 2024 16:00 25 Nov 2024 01:00 $96,404.00 $97,205.23 +0.73% BUBBLE 10h
26 Nov 2024 13:00 26 Nov 2024 15:00 $92,168.84 $92,813.00 +0.60% BUBBLE 3h
27 Nov 2024 04:00 28 Nov 2024 09:00 $92,568.00 $95,271.97 +2.78% BUBBLE 1.3d
29 Nov 2024 03:00 30 Nov 2024 09:00 $96,590.36 $96,779.98 +0.10% BUBBLE 1.3d
01 Dec 2024 02:00 02 Dec 2024 01:00 $95,776.22 $97,964.93 +1.87% BUBBLE 24h
02 Dec 2024 14:00 03 Dec 2024 13:00 $96,321.27 $94,069.06 -2.47% BUBBLE 24h
04 Dec 2024 07:00 04 Dec 2024 16:00 $96,588.81 $94,995.12 -1.79% BUBBLE 10h
05 Dec 2024 23:00 06 Dec 2024 18:00 $96,945.63 $101,363.95 +4.45% BUBBLE 20h
08 Dec 2024 09:00 08 Dec 2024 23:00 $98,884.02 $101,109.59 +2.15% BUBBLE 15h
09 Dec 2024 20:00 11 Dec 2024 15:00 $96,252.01 $100,361.64 +4.17% BUBBLE 1.8d
12 Dec 2024 20:00 14 Dec 2024 13:00 $100,028.01 $101,231.31 +1.06% BUBBLE 1.8d
15 Dec 2024 02:00 16 Dec 2024 00:00 $101,831.15 $105,444.95 +3.13% BUBBLE 23h
16 Dec 2024 13:00 16 Dec 2024 16:00 $103,908.02 $106,824.95 +2.70% BUBBLE 4h
20 Dec 2024 09:00 20 Dec 2024 23:00 $94,811.85 $97,805.44 +3.05% BUBBLE 15h
23 Dec 2024 01:00 23 Dec 2024 03:00 $94,449.99 $96,025.15 +1.57% BUBBLE 3h
23 Dec 2024 16:00 23 Dec 2024 22:00 $93,980.61 $95,191.81 +1.19% BUBBLE 7h
24 Dec 2024 14:00 24 Dec 2024 17:00 $97,465.06 $98,797.47 +1.27% BUBBLE 4h
25 Dec 2024 07:00 25 Dec 2024 21:00 $98,084.33 $98,506.36 +0.33% BUBBLE 15h
30 Dec 2024 14:00 30 Dec 2024 17:00 $91,883.99 $93,832.83 +1.70% BUBBLE 4h
31 Dec 2024 06:00 31 Dec 2024 13:00 $92,816.00 $95,587.12 +2.88% BUBBLE 8h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live BTC signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Bitcoin Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time BTC signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → BTC Signals → View Plans →
90.0% Win Rate +127.9% Return -4.2% Max Drawdown Net of Fees