MOVRMOVRMoonriver$1.2800-0.78%
24h High$1.31
24h Low$1.24
Volume$440,350
Updated17:03 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / MOVR / MOVR — July 2025 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

MOVR Moonriver Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for MOVR - Moonriver. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the July 2025 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 20 trades would have compounded to a final value of $21,147 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros • 20 Trades • Completed
✓ Walk-forward validated ✓ Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Moonriver (MOVR) is the Kusama-based canary network of Moonbeam, providing an EVM-compatible smart-contract platform within the Polkadot/Kusama ecosystem. Listed since mid-2021 with multi-cycle history. Price tends to track Polkadot/Kusama parachain narratives and EVM-compatibility catalysts.

Performance Price & Trades Trade Stats Day Grid Regimes Trade Log FAQ MOVR Signals →

MOVR — July 2025 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Moonriver (MOVR) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Monthly Return
+111.5%
$10,000 →
$21,147
Win Rate
75.0%
15W / 5L
Trades
20
Sharpe
16.38
Alpha vs B&H
+102.22pp
Risk / Reward
83.84×
B&H Return
+9.25%
Max Drawdown
-1.33%
Avg Drawdown
-3.63%
Sharpe Trend
-1.62
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest
View →

Side-by-side: model versions

Same coin, same period, same data window — different model. All walk-forward validated. v5.0 (Kairos) is the current production model (live since 11 May 2026); v4.2 (Theros) was the predecessor; v4.0.1 (Pythia) and v4.0 (Itzamná) confirmed the statistical edge during 2025; v2.5 is the legacy baseline.

v4.0.1 PYTHIA
Return
+86.41%
▲ +25.06
Win Rate
93.3%
▼ -18.33
Sharpe
15.26
▲ +1.12
Alpha vs B&H
+77.16pp
▲ +25.06
Max DD
-0.50%
▼ -0.83
Avg DD
-3.58%
▼ -0.05
Risk / Reward
99+×
Trades
15
Open v4.0.1 page →
v4.0 ITZAMNÁ
Return
+72.88%
▲ +38.59
Win Rate
79.2%
▼ -4.20
Sharpe
0.00
▲ +16.38
Alpha vs B&H
+0.00pp
▲ +102.22
Max DD
-4.03%
▲ +2.70
Avg DD
0.00%
▼ -3.63
Risk / Reward
0.00×
Trades
14
Open v4.0 page →
V4.2 THEROS THIS PAGE
Return
+111.47%
Win Rate
75.0%
Sharpe
16.38
Alpha vs B&H
+102.22pp
Max DD
-1.33%
Avg DD
-3.63%
Risk / Reward
83.84×
Trades
20

Δ-arrows on the counterpart cards show this page minus that version. Higher return / WR = better; smaller (less negative) Max DD = better.

Day-by-day — MOVR — July 2025 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
1
—
2
—
3
—
4
—
5
—
6
—
7
+2.0
8
—
9
—
10
+16.3
11
—
12
+1.0
13
+5.2
14
+4.4
15
—
16
+9.2
17
—
18
+7.4
19
—
20
+1.7
21
+5.2
22
+0.9
23
—
24
-0.6
25
—
26
+2.2
27
—
28
+12.4
29
+2.3
30
—
31
+5.9

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for MOVR over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
▲ Entry ▼ Profit exit ▼ Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 20-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+5.26%
Avg Loss
-0.66%
Best Trade
+16.28%
Worst Trade
-1.33%
Avg Bars Held
18.0h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Signal flip: 11 (55%) Forward-pred: 8 (40%) Short signal: 1 (5%)
Smart Insights
  • ↑ Exceptional return: +111.5% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • ↑ Healthy win rate: 75.0%.
  • ↑ Tight risk control: max drawdown only -1.3%.
  • ↑ Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +3.12% on 19 trades, WR 74%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 19 73.7% +3.12% +77.31% 14h
BULL 1 100.0% +16.28% +16.28% 3.5d

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 20 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
06 Jul 2025 15:00 07 Jul 2025 08:00 $5.32 $5.45 +2.04% BULL 18h
07 Jul 2025 10:00 10 Jul 2025 22:00 $5.36 $6.25 +16.28% BUBBLE 3.5d
12 Jul 2025 01:00 12 Jul 2025 12:00 $6.27 $6.35 +0.95% BUBBLE 12h
12 Jul 2025 16:00 13 Jul 2025 04:00 $6.26 $6.64 +5.82% BUBBLE 13h
13 Jul 2025 06:00 13 Jul 2025 12:00 $6.54 $6.56 +0.10% BUBBLE 7h
13 Jul 2025 14:00 13 Jul 2025 16:00 $6.53 $6.50 -0.71% BUBBLE 3h
13 Jul 2025 22:00 14 Jul 2025 09:00 $6.42 $6.71 +4.37% BUBBLE 12h
15 Jul 2025 01:00 16 Jul 2025 20:00 $6.30 $6.89 +9.18% BUBBLE 1.8d
17 Jul 2025 17:00 18 Jul 2025 12:00 $6.67 $7.18 +7.44% BUBBLE 20h
20 Jul 2025 07:00 20 Jul 2025 16:00 $7.03 $7.22 +2.35% BUBBLE 10h
20 Jul 2025 18:00 20 Jul 2025 20:00 $7.14 $7.12 -0.67% BUBBLE 3h
20 Jul 2025 23:00 21 Jul 2025 09:00 $7.01 $7.40 +5.24% BUBBLE 11h
22 Jul 2025 20:00 22 Jul 2025 22:00 $7.12 $7.20 +0.94% BUBBLE 3h
24 Jul 2025 11:00 24 Jul 2025 13:00 $5.90 $5.88 -0.55% BUBBLE 3h
24 Jul 2025 17:00 24 Jul 2025 19:00 $5.89 $5.90 -0.05% BUBBLE 3h
24 Jul 2025 22:00 26 Jul 2025 09:00 $5.87 $6.09 +3.62% BUBBLE 1.5d
26 Jul 2025 11:00 26 Jul 2025 19:00 $6.13 $6.06 -1.33% BUBBLE 9h
26 Jul 2025 21:00 28 Jul 2025 09:00 $5.99 $6.74 +12.37% BUBBLE 1.5d
28 Jul 2025 23:00 29 Jul 2025 08:00 $6.38 $6.54 +2.33% BUBBLE 10h
30 Jul 2025 12:00 31 Jul 2025 08:00 $5.88 $6.24 +5.92% BUBBLE 21h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live MOVR signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Moonriver Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time MOVR signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

Get Started → MOVR Signals → View Plans →
75.0% Win Rate +111.5% Return -1.3% Max Drawdown Net of Fees