MOVRMOVRMoonriver$1.2800-0.78%
24h High$1.31
24h Low$1.24
Volume$440,350
Updated17:03 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / MOVR / MOVR — H2 2025 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

MOVR Moonriver Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for MOVR - Moonriver. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the H2-2025 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 124 trades would have compounded to a final value of $533,327 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros 124 Trades Completed
Walk-forward validated Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Moonriver (MOVR) is the Kusama-based canary network of Moonbeam, providing an EVM-compatible smart-contract platform within the Polkadot/Kusama ecosystem. Listed since mid-2021 with multi-cycle history. Price tends to track Polkadot/Kusama parachain narratives and EVM-compatibility catalysts.

MOVR — H2 2025 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Moonriver (MOVR) — clean monthly entry, no carry-over from previous months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Sharpe
13.74
Alpha vs B&H
+5,283.83pp
Risk / Reward
99+×
B&H Return
-50.57%
Max Drawdown
-4.67%
Avg Drawdown
-4.16%
Sharpe Trend
-9.92
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest

Day-by-day — MOVR — H2 2025 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for MOVR over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
Entry Profit exit Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 124-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+4.41%
Avg Loss
-1.42%
Best Trade
+18.26%
Worst Trade
-7.10%
Avg Bars Held
17.7h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Signal flip: 51 (41%) Forward-pred: 48 (39%) Short signal: 13 (10%) Trailing stop: 8 (6%) Take-profit: 2 (2%) Regime exit: 1 (1%) Stop-loss: 1 (1%)
Smart Insights
  • Exceptional return: +5,233.3% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • High win rate: 83.1% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • Robust sample: 124 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • Strongest regime: BULL — avg +5.17% on 9 trades, WR 78%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
SIDEWAYS 76 84.2% +3.45% +1,140.11% 17h
BUBBLE 25 76.0% +2.77% +95.31% 14h
BEAR 14 92.9% +3.34% +57.16% 18h
BULL 9 77.8% +5.17% +54.48% 1.2d

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 124 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
06 Jul 2025 15:00 07 Jul 2025 08:00 $5.32 $5.45 +2.04% BULL 18h
07 Jul 2025 10:00 10 Jul 2025 22:00 $5.36 $6.25 +16.28% BUBBLE 3.5d
12 Jul 2025 01:00 12 Jul 2025 12:00 $6.27 $6.35 +0.95% BUBBLE 12h
12 Jul 2025 16:00 13 Jul 2025 04:00 $6.26 $6.64 +5.82% BUBBLE 13h
13 Jul 2025 06:00 13 Jul 2025 12:00 $6.54 $6.56 +0.10% BUBBLE 7h
13 Jul 2025 14:00 13 Jul 2025 16:00 $6.53 $6.50 -0.71% BUBBLE 3h
13 Jul 2025 22:00 14 Jul 2025 09:00 $6.42 $6.71 +4.37% BUBBLE 12h
15 Jul 2025 01:00 16 Jul 2025 20:00 $6.30 $6.89 +9.18% BUBBLE 1.8d
17 Jul 2025 17:00 18 Jul 2025 12:00 $6.67 $7.18 +7.44% BUBBLE 20h
20 Jul 2025 07:00 20 Jul 2025 16:00 $7.03 $7.22 +2.35% BUBBLE 10h
20 Jul 2025 18:00 20 Jul 2025 20:00 $7.14 $7.12 -0.67% BUBBLE 3h
20 Jul 2025 23:00 21 Jul 2025 09:00 $7.01 $7.40 +5.24% BUBBLE 11h
22 Jul 2025 20:00 22 Jul 2025 22:00 $7.12 $7.20 +0.94% BUBBLE 3h
24 Jul 2025 11:00 24 Jul 2025 13:00 $5.90 $5.88 -0.55% BUBBLE 3h
24 Jul 2025 17:00 24 Jul 2025 19:00 $5.89 $5.90 -0.05% BUBBLE 3h
24 Jul 2025 22:00 26 Jul 2025 09:00 $5.87 $6.09 +3.62% BUBBLE 1.5d
26 Jul 2025 11:00 26 Jul 2025 19:00 $6.13 $6.06 -1.33% BUBBLE 9h
26 Jul 2025 21:00 28 Jul 2025 09:00 $5.99 $6.74 +12.37% BUBBLE 1.5d
28 Jul 2025 23:00 29 Jul 2025 08:00 $6.38 $6.54 +2.33% BUBBLE 10h
30 Jul 2025 12:00 31 Jul 2025 08:00 $5.88 $6.24 +5.92% BUBBLE 21h
01 Aug 2025 09:00 01 Aug 2025 11:00 $5.63 $5.69 +0.87% BUBBLE 3h
01 Aug 2025 14:00 01 Aug 2025 16:00 $5.70 $5.70 -0.04% BUBBLE 3h
01 Aug 2025 23:00 02 Aug 2025 01:00 $5.61 $5.63 +0.20% BUBBLE 3h
03 Aug 2025 02:00 04 Aug 2025 15:00 $5.52 $6.03 +8.89% SIDEWAYS 1.6d
04 Aug 2025 17:00 04 Aug 2025 23:00 $6.10 $6.18 +0.93% SIDEWAYS 7h
06 Aug 2025 02:00 08 Aug 2025 14:00 $5.78 $6.65 +14.86% SIDEWAYS 2.5d
09 Aug 2025 03:00 09 Aug 2025 20:00 $6.72 $6.97 +3.52% BULL 18h
10 Aug 2025 09:00 10 Aug 2025 17:00 $7.06 $7.41 +4.78% BULL 9h
12 Aug 2025 06:00 13 Aug 2025 22:00 $6.54 $7.02 +7.20% BULL 1.7d
17 Aug 2025 02:00 17 Aug 2025 08:00 $7.21 $7.56 +4.50% BULL 7h
20 Aug 2025 00:00 21 Aug 2025 01:00 $6.36 $6.59 +3.34% BULL 1.1d
22 Aug 2025 01:00 22 Aug 2025 19:00 $6.28 $6.83 +8.53% SIDEWAYS 19h
22 Aug 2025 21:00 23 Aug 2025 05:00 $6.86 $6.80 -1.02% SIDEWAYS 9h
23 Aug 2025 21:00 24 Aug 2025 00:00 $6.79 $6.78 -0.34% SIDEWAYS 4h
24 Aug 2025 08:00 24 Aug 2025 18:00 $6.59 $6.84 +3.58% SIDEWAYS 11h
24 Aug 2025 23:00 25 Aug 2025 01:00 $6.65 $6.60 -0.94% SIDEWAYS 3h
25 Aug 2025 21:00 27 Aug 2025 04:00 $5.92 $6.93 +16.79% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
27 Aug 2025 07:00 27 Aug 2025 09:00 $6.70 $7.13 +6.25% SIDEWAYS 3h
28 Aug 2025 06:00 28 Aug 2025 08:00 $6.70 $6.78 +0.99% SIDEWAYS 3h
29 Aug 2025 15:00 30 Aug 2025 19:00 $6.42 $6.57 +2.25% SIDEWAYS 1.2d
01 Sep 2025 23:00 02 Sep 2025 01:00 $6.03 $6.12 +1.11% SIDEWAYS 3h
03 Sep 2025 09:00 04 Sep 2025 01:00 $5.78 $5.92 +2.12% SIDEWAYS 17h
04 Sep 2025 06:00 04 Sep 2025 08:00 $5.68 $5.73 +0.50% SIDEWAYS 3h
04 Sep 2025 14:00 05 Sep 2025 21:00 $5.66 $5.76 +1.42% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
05 Sep 2025 23:00 08 Sep 2025 22:00 $5.76 $5.99 +3.73% SIDEWAYS 3d
10 Sep 2025 01:00 10 Sep 2025 03:00 $5.90 $6.00 +1.50% SIDEWAYS 3h
10 Sep 2025 18:00 13 Sep 2025 08:00 $5.94 $6.22 +4.51% SIDEWAYS 2.6d
15 Sep 2025 15:00 18 Sep 2025 21:00 $5.64 $6.02 +6.28% SIDEWAYS 3.3d
18 Sep 2025 23:00 19 Sep 2025 01:00 $6.00 $6.12 +1.64% SIDEWAYS 3h
20 Sep 2025 00:00 21 Sep 2025 05:00 $5.63 $6.09 +7.88% SIDEWAYS 1.3d
22 Sep 2025 06:00 23 Sep 2025 14:00 $5.49 $5.65 +2.58% SIDEWAYS 1.4d
23 Sep 2025 16:00 23 Sep 2025 21:00 $5.63 $5.52 -2.20% SIDEWAYS 6h
24 Sep 2025 01:00 24 Sep 2025 12:00 $5.54 $5.65 +1.88% SIDEWAYS 12h
25 Sep 2025 18:00 27 Sep 2025 08:00 $5.21 $5.33 +2.06% SIDEWAYS 1.6d
28 Sep 2025 02:00 29 Sep 2025 01:00 $5.28 $5.47 +3.17% SIDEWAYS 24h
30 Sep 2025 11:00 02 Oct 2025 01:00 $5.20 $5.69 +9.04% SIDEWAYS 1.6d
02 Oct 2025 03:00 02 Oct 2025 18:00 $5.72 $5.76 +0.34% SIDEWAYS 16h
03 Oct 2025 01:00 04 Oct 2025 01:00 $5.60 $5.74 +2.26% SIDEWAYS 1d
04 Oct 2025 11:00 05 Oct 2025 07:00 $5.56 $5.83 +4.69% SIDEWAYS 21h
06 Oct 2025 01:00 07 Oct 2025 01:00 $5.59 $5.67 +1.18% BUBBLE 1d
07 Oct 2025 21:00 08 Oct 2025 17:00 $5.40 $5.57 +2.93% BUBBLE 21h
08 Oct 2025 19:00 09 Oct 2025 05:00 $5.55 $5.48 -1.45% BUBBLE 11h
10 Oct 2025 21:00 11 Oct 2025 04:00 $4.38 $4.10 -6.53% BULL 8h
12 Oct 2025 02:00 13 Oct 2025 18:00 $4.09 $4.60 +12.02% BULL 1.7d
14 Oct 2025 06:00 15 Oct 2025 04:00 $4.36 $4.45 +1.60% SIDEWAYS 23h
16 Oct 2025 21:00 17 Oct 2025 00:00 $3.98 $4.06 +1.80% SIDEWAYS 4h
17 Oct 2025 09:00 19 Oct 2025 06:00 $3.72 $3.83 +2.49% SIDEWAYS 1.9d
19 Oct 2025 08:00 19 Oct 2025 21:00 $3.83 $3.93 +2.30% SIDEWAYS 14h
20 Oct 2025 01:00 20 Oct 2025 09:00 $3.82 $4.07 +6.22% SIDEWAYS 9h
21 Oct 2025 03:00 21 Oct 2025 15:00 $3.85 $4.04 +4.46% SIDEWAYS 13h
22 Oct 2025 21:00 23 Oct 2025 17:00 $3.53 $3.79 +6.95% SIDEWAYS 21h
23 Oct 2025 19:00 24 Oct 2025 01:00 $3.74 $3.75 -0.03% SIDEWAYS 7h
26 Oct 2025 02:00 26 Oct 2025 23:00 $3.62 $3.77 +3.92% SIDEWAYS 22h
29 Oct 2025 01:00 29 Oct 2025 20:00 $3.53 $3.60 +1.62% SIDEWAYS 20h
30 Oct 2025 16:00 02 Nov 2025 06:00 $3.31 $3.48 +4.66% SIDEWAYS 2.6d
02 Nov 2025 15:00 02 Nov 2025 18:00 $3.42 $3.51 +2.52% SIDEWAYS 4h
02 Nov 2025 22:00 03 Nov 2025 00:00 $3.44 $3.43 -0.68% SIDEWAYS 3h
03 Nov 2025 05:00 03 Nov 2025 14:00 $3.18 $3.26 +2.26% SIDEWAYS 10h
03 Nov 2025 16:00 04 Nov 2025 03:00 $3.09 $3.52 +13.39% SIDEWAYS 12h
04 Nov 2025 05:00 04 Nov 2025 09:00 $3.69 $3.68 -0.47% SIDEWAYS 5h
04 Nov 2025 11:00 04 Nov 2025 13:00 $3.76 $3.50 -7.10% SIDEWAYS 3h
04 Nov 2025 21:00 05 Nov 2025 22:00 $3.16 $3.41 +7.81% SIDEWAYS 1.1d
06 Nov 2025 01:00 06 Nov 2025 07:00 $3.37 $3.70 +9.60% SIDEWAYS 7h
06 Nov 2025 09:00 06 Nov 2025 13:00 $3.53 $3.71 +4.82% SIDEWAYS 5h
06 Nov 2025 17:00 07 Nov 2025 03:00 $3.46 $3.88 +11.71% SIDEWAYS 11h
07 Nov 2025 10:00 07 Nov 2025 18:00 $3.64 $4.31 +18.26% SIDEWAYS 9h
07 Nov 2025 21:00 08 Nov 2025 02:00 $4.17 $4.15 -0.72% SIDEWAYS 6h
08 Nov 2025 09:00 08 Nov 2025 10:00 $3.97 $4.19 +5.52% SIDEWAYS 2h
09 Nov 2025 03:00 09 Nov 2025 07:00 $3.70 $3.79 +1.98% SIDEWAYS 5h
10 Nov 2025 22:00 12 Nov 2025 02:00 $3.68 $3.79 +2.57% SIDEWAYS 1.2d
12 Nov 2025 17:00 13 Nov 2025 10:00 $3.58 $3.83 +6.56% SIDEWAYS 18h
14 Nov 2025 05:00 14 Nov 2025 07:00 $3.47 $3.55 +1.96% SIDEWAYS 3h
14 Nov 2025 14:00 14 Nov 2025 15:00 $3.49 $3.57 +2.10% SIDEWAYS 2h
14 Nov 2025 23:00 15 Nov 2025 00:00 $3.38 $3.45 +1.78% SIDEWAYS 2h
15 Nov 2025 02:00 16 Nov 2025 01:00 $3.49 $3.44 -1.85% BEAR 24h
19 Nov 2025 05:00 20 Nov 2025 07:00 $3.12 $3.20 +2.43% BEAR 1.1d
20 Nov 2025 18:00 20 Nov 2025 22:00 $3.15 $3.24 +2.47% BEAR 5h
21 Nov 2025 13:00 21 Nov 2025 14:00 $2.99 $3.14 +4.72% BEAR 2h
21 Nov 2025 23:00 22 Nov 2025 22:00 $2.98 $3.11 +4.03% BEAR 24h
24 Nov 2025 12:00 25 Nov 2025 01:00 $3.00 $3.12 +3.24% BEAR 14h
25 Nov 2025 03:00 26 Nov 2025 08:00 $3.11 $3.18 +1.67% BEAR 1.3d
26 Nov 2025 12:00 27 Nov 2025 12:00 $3.12 $3.18 +1.44% BEAR 1d
27 Nov 2025 14:00 27 Nov 2025 17:00 $3.19 $3.65 +13.99% BEAR 4h
30 Nov 2025 11:00 30 Nov 2025 15:00 $3.15 $3.18 +0.77% SIDEWAYS 5h
01 Dec 2025 14:00 03 Dec 2025 20:00 $2.91 $3.09 +5.89% SIDEWAYS 2.3d
07 Dec 2025 02:00 07 Dec 2025 10:00 $2.95 $2.90 -2.25% SIDEWAYS 9h
07 Dec 2025 12:00 07 Dec 2025 15:00 $2.91 $3.15 +7.52% SIDEWAYS 4h
07 Dec 2025 22:00 08 Dec 2025 07:00 $2.97 $3.22 +7.96% SIDEWAYS 10h
09 Dec 2025 02:00 09 Dec 2025 21:00 $3.04 $3.07 +0.87% SIDEWAYS 20h
10 Dec 2025 11:00 10 Dec 2025 13:00 $3.00 $3.07 +2.15% SIDEWAYS 3h
11 Dec 2025 10:00 12 Dec 2025 02:00 $2.90 $2.99 +2.54% SIDEWAYS 17h
12 Dec 2025 17:00 12 Dec 2025 23:00 $2.88 $2.90 +0.48% SIDEWAYS 7h
13 Dec 2025 15:00 13 Dec 2025 23:00 $2.88 $2.88 -0.32% SIDEWAYS 9h
15 Dec 2025 18:00 15 Dec 2025 22:00 $2.55 $2.61 +2.26% SIDEWAYS 5h
16 Dec 2025 14:00 16 Dec 2025 15:00 $2.59 $2.64 +1.56% SIDEWAYS 2h
18 Dec 2025 05:00 18 Dec 2025 13:00 $2.36 $2.46 +4.24% BEAR 9h
18 Dec 2025 20:00 20 Dec 2025 04:00 $2.34 $2.48 +5.62% BEAR 1.4d
20 Dec 2025 06:00 20 Dec 2025 21:00 $2.50 $2.54 +1.53% BEAR 16h
21 Dec 2025 14:00 23 Dec 2025 04:00 $2.45 $2.49 +1.41% BEAR 1.6d
23 Dec 2025 07:00 25 Dec 2025 06:00 $2.46 $2.61 +5.54% BEAR 2d
26 Dec 2025 01:00 26 Dec 2025 06:00 $2.54 $2.56 +0.42% SIDEWAYS 6h
26 Dec 2025 19:00 26 Dec 2025 23:00 $2.52 $2.55 +1.08% SIDEWAYS 5h
27 Dec 2025 01:00 27 Dec 2025 13:00 $2.55 $2.54 -0.54% SIDEWAYS 13h
28 Dec 2025 21:00 29 Dec 2025 01:00 $2.50 $2.52 +0.61% SIDEWAYS 5h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live MOVR signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Moonriver Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time MOVR signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

83.1% Win Rate +5,233.3% Return -4.7% Max Drawdown Net of Fees