MOVRMOVRMoonriver$1.2800-0.78%
24h High$1.31
24h Low$1.24
Volume$440,350
Updated17:03 UTC
Modelv6.2 Pythia
Paper Trades / MOVR / MOVR — Q1 2024 (v4.2 Theros)
LEGACY · v4.2 Theros

MOVR Moonriver Paper Trade

We ran simulated live trades using the AlgoZilla Omniscius v4.2 Theros model for MOVR - Moonriver. The results below give you an overview of the most important Key Performance Indicators, Equity Curve and the Trade Log as simulated by our Pythia model. The returns have been accumulated over the Q1-2024 period. The simulated paper trades of the model show that an initial investment at the start of the period with 60 trades would have compounded to a final value of $100,749 (from a $10,000 base). All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). The model uses a 15‑minute delay on the signal on both entries and exits to simulate possible slippage when executing orders.

v4.2 Theros 60 Trades Completed
Walk-forward validated Net of fees (0.15% / 0.25%)

Moonriver (MOVR) is the Kusama-based canary network of Moonbeam, providing an EVM-compatible smart-contract platform within the Polkadot/Kusama ecosystem. Listed since mid-2021 with multi-cycle history. Price tends to track Polkadot/Kusama parachain narratives and EVM-compatibility catalysts.

MOVR — Q1 2024 (v4.2 Theros) Performancev4.2 Theros

Moonriver (MOVR) — compounded across 3 months. Net of trading fees (Bitvavo 0.15% + 0.25%).

Sharpe
11.96
Alpha vs B&H
+920.10pp
Risk / Reward
99+×
B&H Return
-12.60%
Max Drawdown
-3.03%
Avg Drawdown
-5.00%
Sharpe Trend
-13.32
Model
v4.2 Theros
Full Backtest

Day-by-day — MOVR — Q1 2024 (v4.2 Theros) — compounded daily PnL within this period

Price & trade markersv4.2 Theros

1H candles for MOVR over the test window with every entry (▲ green up-arrow) and exit (▼ green = profitable, ▼ red = loss). Hover a marker for trade details.

Loading 1H candles…
Entry Profit exit Loss exit Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts

Trade statisticsv4.2 Theros

Aggregates derived from the full 60-trade log of this period.

Avg Win
+4.78%
Avg Loss
-1.69%
Best Trade
+13.27%
Worst Trade
-6.07%
Avg Bars Held
15.3h
Exit-reason mix (hover badges for details)
Forward-pred: 32 (53%) Signal flip: 25 (42%) Short signal: 3 (5%)
Smart Insights
  • Exceptional return: +907.5% — compound across the full walk-forward window.
  • High win rate: 86.7% — 4 in 5 trades close in profit.
  • Robust sample: 60 trades smooth out single-trade luck.
  • Strongest regime: BUBBLE — avg +4.27% on 45 trades, WR 89%.

Per-regime Breakdownv4.2 Theros

How the model performs across the 4 market regimes detected by Omniscius.

Regime Trades Win Rate Avg PnL Compounded Return Avg Hold
BUBBLE 45 88.9% +4.27% +535.98% 15h
SIDEWAYS 9 77.8% +2.60% +25.49% 12h
BULL 6 83.3% +3.20% +20.61% 1.0d

Trade Logv4.2 Theros

All 60 trades executed during this paper trade period.

EntryExitEntry PriceExit PricePnLRegimeDuration
07 Jan 2024 17:00 08 Jan 2024 10:00 $23.13 $25.62 +10.34% BULL 18h
08 Jan 2024 13:00 09 Jan 2024 00:00 $24.82 $26.83 +7.83% BUBBLE 12h
09 Jan 2024 21:00 10 Jan 2024 22:00 $23.95 $27.18 +13.27% BUBBLE 1.1d
11 Jan 2024 00:00 11 Jan 2024 02:00 $26.78 $26.15 -2.49% BUBBLE 3h
12 Jan 2024 16:00 13 Jan 2024 00:00 $24.65 $27.92 +13.05% BUBBLE 9h
13 Jan 2024 03:00 13 Jan 2024 08:00 $26.78 $28.40 +5.86% BUBBLE 6h
15 Jan 2024 00:00 15 Jan 2024 08:00 $26.07 $27.83 +6.63% BUBBLE 9h
17 Jan 2024 16:00 18 Jan 2024 01:00 $24.86 $24.69 -0.81% BULL 10h
18 Jan 2024 18:00 19 Jan 2024 11:00 $23.24 $24.30 +4.43% BULL 18h
23 Jan 2024 08:00 23 Jan 2024 16:00 $21.00 $22.13 +4.95% SIDEWAYS 9h
23 Jan 2024 18:00 23 Jan 2024 23:00 $22.77 $22.59 -1.03% SIDEWAYS 6h
24 Jan 2024 01:00 24 Jan 2024 08:00 $22.26 $23.21 +4.04% SIDEWAYS 8h
24 Jan 2024 10:00 24 Jan 2024 11:00 $23.48 $23.60 +0.33% SIDEWAYS 2h
24 Jan 2024 21:00 24 Jan 2024 23:00 $22.29 $22.80 +2.11% SIDEWAYS 3h
25 Jan 2024 20:00 27 Jan 2024 21:00 $22.61 $24.88 +9.85% SIDEWAYS 2.1d
28 Jan 2024 19:00 29 Jan 2024 16:00 $23.19 $23.95 +3.15% SIDEWAYS 22h
29 Jan 2024 20:00 29 Jan 2024 23:00 $23.78 $23.72 -0.36% SIDEWAYS 4h
31 Jan 2024 11:00 31 Jan 2024 13:00 $22.61 $22.73 +0.40% SIDEWAYS 3h
01 Feb 2024 00:00 02 Feb 2024 16:00 $22.19 $22.39 +0.77% BULL 1.7d
04 Feb 2024 08:00 05 Feb 2024 12:00 $21.45 $22.57 +4.83% BULL 1.2d
07 Feb 2024 01:00 08 Feb 2024 03:00 $21.56 $22.48 +4.03% BULL 1.1d
09 Feb 2024 01:00 10 Feb 2024 02:00 $22.06 $23.42 +5.95% BULL 1.1d
12 Feb 2024 03:00 12 Feb 2024 17:00 $22.53 $23.08 +2.25% BUBBLE 15h
12 Feb 2024 19:00 13 Feb 2024 05:00 $23.40 $23.24 -0.83% BUBBLE 11h
13 Feb 2024 15:00 14 Feb 2024 13:00 $22.23 $23.43 +5.22% BUBBLE 23h
14 Feb 2024 15:00 15 Feb 2024 00:00 $23.03 $23.48 +1.81% BUBBLE 10h
16 Feb 2024 20:00 16 Feb 2024 22:00 $22.02 $22.34 +1.30% BUBBLE 3h
18 Feb 2024 10:00 18 Feb 2024 21:00 $23.36 $23.79 +1.45% BUBBLE 12h
19 Feb 2024 01:00 19 Feb 2024 04:00 $23.89 $25.51 +6.52% BUBBLE 4h
19 Feb 2024 15:00 20 Feb 2024 04:00 $24.58 $25.63 +4.07% BUBBLE 14h
20 Feb 2024 16:00 20 Feb 2024 22:00 $23.66 $23.98 +1.21% BUBBLE 7h
21 Feb 2024 13:00 22 Feb 2024 03:00 $23.00 $22.63 -1.74% BUBBLE 15h
23 Feb 2024 16:00 24 Feb 2024 21:00 $20.99 $22.34 +6.24% BUBBLE 1.3d
24 Feb 2024 23:00 25 Feb 2024 00:00 $22.16 $22.49 +1.37% BUBBLE 2h
26 Feb 2024 11:00 27 Feb 2024 01:00 $21.68 $23.18 +6.77% BUBBLE 15h
27 Feb 2024 05:00 27 Feb 2024 10:00 $23.04 $23.38 +1.35% BUBBLE 6h
27 Feb 2024 15:00 28 Feb 2024 11:00 $22.92 $24.69 +7.58% BUBBLE 21h
28 Feb 2024 21:00 29 Feb 2024 01:00 $23.34 $24.11 +3.19% BUBBLE 5h
29 Feb 2024 22:00 01 Mar 2024 12:00 $23.48 $25.67 +9.18% BUBBLE 15h
01 Mar 2024 14:00 02 Mar 2024 00:00 $24.80 $25.82 +4.00% BUBBLE 11h
03 Mar 2024 08:00 03 Mar 2024 10:00 $24.83 $25.34 +1.62% BUBBLE 3h
04 Mar 2024 17:00 05 Mar 2024 08:00 $24.42 $25.90 +5.88% BUBBLE 16h
05 Mar 2024 21:00 06 Mar 2024 21:00 $21.94 $23.33 +6.18% BULL 1d
07 Mar 2024 20:00 09 Mar 2024 10:00 $22.17 $23.36 +5.18% BUBBLE 1.6d
09 Mar 2024 17:00 10 Mar 2024 00:00 $22.77 $23.83 +4.47% BUBBLE 8h
10 Mar 2024 23:00 12 Mar 2024 10:00 $22.41 $24.33 +8.43% BUBBLE 1.5d
12 Mar 2024 15:00 13 Mar 2024 01:00 $24.07 $26.19 +8.65% BUBBLE 11h
13 Mar 2024 05:00 13 Mar 2024 13:00 $28.70 $27.00 -6.07% BUBBLE 9h
14 Mar 2024 16:00 14 Mar 2024 22:00 $24.63 $24.94 +1.11% BUBBLE 7h
15 Mar 2024 21:00 16 Mar 2024 01:00 $23.08 $23.63 +2.24% BUBBLE 5h
17 Mar 2024 02:00 17 Mar 2024 03:00 $22.02 $22.37 +1.20% BUBBLE 2h
17 Mar 2024 06:00 17 Mar 2024 23:00 $21.82 $22.49 +2.79% BUBBLE 18h
19 Mar 2024 07:00 19 Mar 2024 15:00 $18.32 $19.84 +8.12% BUBBLE 9h
20 Mar 2024 00:00 21 Mar 2024 07:00 $18.79 $21.12 +12.22% BUBBLE 1.3d
22 Mar 2024 14:00 23 Mar 2024 14:00 $19.95 $20.88 +4.49% BUBBLE 1d
23 Mar 2024 16:00 25 Mar 2024 03:00 $20.78 $22.03 +5.85% BUBBLE 1.5d
25 Mar 2024 06:00 25 Mar 2024 21:00 $21.94 $22.37 +1.86% BUBBLE 16h
26 Mar 2024 17:00 26 Mar 2024 19:00 $21.90 $22.23 +1.35% BUBBLE 3h
27 Mar 2024 22:00 29 Mar 2024 11:00 $21.71 $22.07 +1.53% BUBBLE 1.6d
31 Mar 2024 02:00 31 Mar 2024 23:00 $21.10 $21.15 -0.16% BUBBLE 22h

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a paper trade?

A paper trade simulates real signal execution without real money. Each period starts fresh with a clean $10,000 allocation — no carry-over from previous windows. This shows exactly what would have happened if you started following signals on day one of that window. View live MOVR signals →

Are trading fees included?

Yes. All results are net of trading fees based on Bitvavo rates (0.15% entry + 0.25% exit). No slippage is applied. Trading via Bitget (0.1%/0.1%) would improve returns.

How does this relate to the backtest?

Paper trades use the same model and signals as the full backtest. The difference: backtests cover years of data across multiple market cycles, while paper trades show month-by-month performance in recent market conditions. Together they provide a complete picture.

Is the model retrained during the month?

Yes. The Omniscius model is retrained bi-weekly, which means paper trade results reflect the exact same model updates that live subscribers receive. This is not a static backtest — it is a living simulation. Learn about Omniscius →

Start Trading Moonriver Smarter

These paper trade results show what our model delivers. Get real-time MOVR signals with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit on every trade.

86.7% Win Rate +907.5% Return -3.0% Max Drawdown Net of Fees